Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Bringing Forecasting Into The Future: Using Google To Predict Visitation In U.S. National Parks, Matt Clark, Emily J. Wilkins, Dani T. Dagan, Robert Powell, Ryan L. Sharp, Vicken Hillis

Environment and Society Student Research

In recent years, visitation to U.S. National Parks has been increasing, with the majority of this increase occurring in a subset of parks. As a result, managers in these parks must respond quickly to increasing visitor-related challenges. Improved visitation forecasting would allow managers to more proactively plan for such increases. In this study, we leverage internet search data that is freely available through Google Trends to create a forecasting model. We compare this Google Trends model to a traditional autoregressive forecasting model. Overall, our Google Trends model accurately predicted 97% of the total visitation variation to all parks one year …