Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Shortfalls Of Vulnerability Indexes For Public Health Decision-Making In The Face Of Emergent Crises: The Case Of Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Virginia, Lydia Cleveland Sa, Erika Frydenlund

VMASC Publications

Equitable and effective vaccine uptake is a key issue in addressing COVID-19. To achieve this, we must comprehensively characterize the context-specific socio-behavioral and structural determinants of vaccine uptake. However, to quickly focus public health interventions, state agencies and planners often rely on already existing indexes of "vulnerability." Many such "vulnerability indexes" exist and become benchmarks for targeting interventions in wide ranging scenarios, but they vary considerably in the factors and themes that they cover. Some are even uncritical of the use of the word "vulnerable," which should take on different meanings in different contexts. The objective of this study is …

Understanding And Assessing Demographic (In)Equity Resulting From Extreme Heat Exposure Due To Lack Of Tree Canopies In Norfolk, Va Using Agent-Based Modeling, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O'Brien, Erik Jensen, Brandon Feldhaus, Russell Moore, Christopher J. Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can result in illness and death. In urban areas of dense concentrations of pavement, buildings, and other surfaces that absorb and retain heat, extreme heat conditions can arise regularly and create harmful environmental exposures for residents daily during certain parts of the year. Tree canopies provide shade and help to cool the environment, making mature trees with large canopies a simple and effective way to reduce urban heat. We develop a demographically representative 1 (agent): 1 (person) agent-based model to understand the extent to which different demographics of residents in Norfolk, VA are equitably shaded …

Computational Decision Support For Socio-Technical Awareness Of Land-Use Planning Under Complexity—A Dam Resilience Planning Case Study, Andreas Tolk, Jennifer A. Richkus, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

Land-use planning for modern societies requires technical competence as well as social competence. We therefore propose an integrative solution enabling better land-use planning and management through better-informed decision-making. We adapt a method developed for cross-disciplinary team building to identify the stakeholders and their various objectives and value systems. We use these results to populate artificial societies embedded into a dynamic data analytics framework as a tool to identify, explore, and visualize the challenges resulting from the different objectives and value systems in land-use planning and management. To prove the feasibility of the proposed solution, we present two use cases from …

Estimating The Health Effects Of Adding Bicycle And Pedestrian Paths At The Census Tract Level: Multiple Model Comparison, Ross J. Gore, Christopher Lynch, Craig Jordan, Andrew Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Gabrielle Fuller, Pearson Ames, Prateek Keerthi, Yash Kandukuri

VMASC Publications

Background: Adding additional bicycle and pedestrian paths to an area can lead to improved health outcomes for residents over time. However, quantitatively determining which areas benefit more from bicycle and pedestrian paths, how many miles of bicycle and pedestrian paths are needed, and the health outcomes that may be most improved remain open questions.

Objective: Our work provides and evaluates a methodology that offers actionable insight for city-level planners, public health officials, and decision makers tasked with the question “To what extent will adding specified bicycle and pedestrian path mileage to a census tract improve residents’ health outcomes over time?” …

Short-Range Forecasting Of Covid-19 During Early Onset At County, Health District, And State Geographic Levels Using Seven Methods: Comparative Forecasting Study, Christopher Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

BACKGROUND:

Forecasting methods rely on trends and averages of prior observations to forecast COVID-19 case counts. COVID-19 forecasts have received much media attention, and numerous platforms have been created to inform the public. However, forecasting effectiveness varies by geographic scope and is affected by changing assumptions in behaviors and preventative measures in response to the pandemic. Due to time requirements for developing a COVID-19 vaccine, evidence is needed to inform short-term forecasting method selection at county, health district, and state levels.

OBJECTIVE:

COVID-19 forecasts keep the public informed and contribute to public policy. As such, proper understanding of forecasting purposes …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Values: The Case Of Value Sensitive Design For Refugee Logistics, Christine Boshuijzen-Van Burken, Ross J. Gore, Frank Dignum, Lamber Royakkers, Phillip Wozny, F. Leron Shults

VMASC Publications

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz’s theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform …

Shipbuilding Supply Chain Framework And Digital Transformation: A Project Portfolios Risk Evaluation, Rafael Diaz, Katherine Smith, Rafael Landaeta, Antonio Padovano

VMASC Publications

Program portfolio managers in digital transformation programs have a need for knowledge that can guide decisions related to the alignment of program investments with the sustainability and strategic objectives of the organization. The purpose of this research is to illustrate the utility of a framework capable of clarifying the cost-benefit tradeoffs stemming from assessing digitalization program investment risks in the military shipbuilding sector. Our approach uses Artificial Neural Network to quantify benefits and risks per project while employing scenario analysis to quantify the effects of operational constraints. A Monte Carlo model is used to generate data samples that support the …

Protecting The Most Vulnerable, Joshua G. Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Research, Cooperation, A Vision For Combatting Rising Seas, Joshua Behr

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Integrating A Simple Traffic Incident Model For Rapid Evacuation Analysis, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson, Peter Foytik, Craig Jordan, Barry C. Ezell

VMASC Publications

Road transportation networks are a segment of society's critical infrastructure particularly susceptible to service disruptions. Traffic incidents disrupt road networks by producing blockages and increasing travel times, creating significant impacts during emergency events such as evacuations. For this reason, it is extremely important to incorporate traffic incidents in evacuation planning models. Emergency managers and decision makers need tools that enable rapid assessment of multiple, varied scenarios. Many evacuation simulations require high-fidelity data input making them impractical for rapid deployment by practitioners. Since there is such variation in evacuation types and the method of disruption, evacuation models do not require the …

Emergency Department Frequent Utilization For Non-Emergent Presentments: Results From A Regional Urban Trauma Center Study, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

Objectives
First, to test a model of the drivers of frequent emergency department utilization conceptualized as falling within predisposing, enabling, and need dimensions. Second, to extend the model to include social networks and service quality as predictors of frequent utilization. Third, to illustrate the variation in thresholds that define frequent utilization in terms of the number of emergency department encounters by the predictors within the model.

Data Source
Primary data collection over an eight week period within a level-1 trauma urban hospital's emergency department.

Study Design
Representative randomized sample of 1,443 adult patients triaged ESI levels 4'5. Physicians …

Building Resiliency In Response To Sea Level Rise And Recurrent Flooding: Comprehensive Planning In Hampton Roads, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz, Molly Mitchell

VMASC Publications

[Introduction]

Over the past few decades, the Hampton Roads region, with its extensive coastline, has been experiencing more frequent flooding from surges and precipitation caused by tropical storms, nor’easters and heavy thunderstorms (Figure 1). Recurrent flooding is “flooding that occurs repeatedly in the same area over time due to precipitation events, high tides or storm surge.”¹ The recurrence of tidal/surge flooding in Hampton Roads has increased from 1.7 days of “nuisance” flooding per year in 1960 to 7.3 days per year in 2014.² Although there is no definitive region-wide data to document the increases in precipitation-induced flooding, there …

Panic That Spreads Sociobehavioral Contagion In Pedestrian Evacuations, Terra Elzie, Erika Frydenlund, Andrew J. Collins, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

Crowds are a part of everyday public life, from stadiums and arenas to school hallways. Occasionally, pushing within the crowd spontaneously escalates to crushing behavior, resulting in injuries and even death. The rarity and unpredictability of these incidents provides few options to collect data for research on the prediction and prevention of hazardous emergent behaviors in crowds. This study takes a close look at the way states of agitation, such as panic, can spread through crowds. Group composition—mainly family groups composed of members with differing mobility levels—plays an important role in the spread of agitation through the crowd, ultimately affecting …

Analysis Of The Cost Of Emergency Managers' Meeting Load: A Hampton Road Case-Study, Andrew J. Collins, David W. Flanagan, Barry Ezell

VMASC Publications

Preparation for a disaster is not something that can be done by a single organization thus there is a need for coordination between them. Meetings and joint exercises are one means of coordination used by the emergency management community. Meetings and exercises take time, including transportation of personnel and arrangements, and time is money. With limited budgets, emergency managers need to make hard decisions about how their time is allocated. This paper describes a cost model for meeting analysis and discusses a case study that looks at the holistic time spent on meetings and exercises, by personnel, for the Hampton …

Integrating Truck Emissions Cost In Traffic Assignment, Peter Foytik, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The adverse impacts of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and the imperative for reducing the existing rate of GHG production are well established. In the United States, the largest source of GHG emissions from human activities is from burning fossil fuels, primarily for the generation of electricity and transportation. The transportation sector accounts for 28% of all U.S. GHG production. Heavy-duty vehicles, such as large freight trucks, account for nearly one-fifth of the U.S. total, and this fraction is expected to grow rapidly. Consequently, many efforts are being used to reduce the total emissions of freight trucks. Most efforts emphasize one of …

Exploring A Toll Auction Mechanism Enabled By Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology, Andrew J. Collins, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Mecit Cetin

VMASC Publications

High-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes—an increasingly popular solution for congested roadway networks—give drivers the option to access express lanes. The cost of entry often varies with demand, although no standard method of optimizing these price points exists. Using the principles of a Vickrey auction that incentivizes true-value bids, this paper proposes a tolling system that uses vehicle-to-infrastructure technology to optimize toll operator revenue with HOT lane usage. In the scenario, a roadway network consists of a HOT lane and a general-purpose lane, each with identical physical properties. Drivers can access the HOT lane at the start of the facility or at …

Hurricane Preparedness: Community Vulnerability And Medically Fragile Populations, Joshua G. Behr, Rafael Diaz

VMASC Publications

No abstract provided.

Agent-Based Simulation Of Mass Shootings: Determining How To Limit The Scale Of A Tragedy, Roy Hayes, Reginald Hayes

VMASC Publications

An agent-based simulation was created to examine key parameters in mass shootings. The goal of the simulation was to examine the potential effectiveness of Senator Dianne Feinstein's (D-Calif.) assault weapons and high-capacity magazines bill. Based on the analysis, the proposed law would have a negligible effect on the number of people shot during mass shootings. The assault weapons portion of the proposed bill will have no effect on the number of people killed or wounded in a mass shooting. The assault weapons ban does not seek to decrease the rate of fire of any firearm. Of the parameters tested a …

Generic Incident Model For Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts On Evacuation Times In Large-Scale Emergencies, Andrew J. Collins, Peter Foytik, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Craig A. Jordan

VMASC Publications

Traffic incidents cause a ripple effect of reduced travel speeds, lane changes, and the pursuit of alternative routes that results in gridlock on the immediately affected and surrounding roadways. The disruptions caused by the secondary effects significantly degrade travel time reliability, which is of great concern to the emergency planners who manage evacuations. Outcomes forecast by a generic incident model embedded in a microscopic evacuation simulation, the Real-Time Evacuation Planning Model (RtePM), were examined to quantify the change in time required for an emergency evacuation that results from traffic incidents. The incident model considered vehicle miles traveled on each individual …

Path Clearance For Emergency Vehicles Through The Use Of Vehicle-To-Vehicle Communication, Craig Jordan, Mecit Cetin, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The study described in this paper evaluated and tested a new strategy to enable emergency response vehicles (EVs) to navigate through congestion at signalized intersections more efficiently. The proposed strategy involves the use of vehicle-to-vehicle communication to send messages to alert vehicles to the approach of the EV and to provide specific instructions on maneuvering to allow the EV to proceed through congested signalized intersections as quickly as possible. This movement is achieved by creation of a split in the vehicle queue in one lane at a critical location to allow the EV to proceed at its desired speed but …

Identifying Factors That Influence Terrorist Decisions And Target Selection, Barry C. Ezell, Joshua Behr, Andrew Collins

VMASC Publications

Currently, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) elicits probabilistic judgements from the intelligence community on actions terrorists may take to attack the continental U.S. For example, how likely is the adversary to choose agent 'x' over 'y' or target 'a' over target 'b'? Eliciting these types of judgements is difficult and time consuming. The National Academies and others have suggested that a better approach may be to elicit information on adversary's preferences, perceptions, and capabilities and use this information to calculate probabilities of interest to DHS. Some terrorist groups are thinking about using weapons of mass destruction (WMD), each …

Theoretically-Driven Infrastructure For Supporting Health Care Teams Training At A Military Treatment Facility, T. Robert Turner Jr., V. Andrea Parodi

VMASC Publications

Designated a Department of Defense Team Resource Center (TRC) in 2008, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth (NMCP) currently hosts three tri-service health care teams training courses annually. Each consists of didactic learning coupled with simulation-based training exercises to provide an interactive educational experience for health care professionals. Simulated cases are developed to reinforce specific teamwork skills and behaviors, and to incorporate a variety of technologies including standardized patients, manikins, and virtual reality. The course is also the foundation of a research program designed to explore applications of modeling and simulation for enhanced team training in health care. The TRC has adopted …

The Value Of Modeling And Simulation Standards, Andrew J. Collins, David Meyr, Solomon Sherfey, Andreas Tolk, Mikel Petty

VMASC Publications

In the current economic climate, there is a requirement to justify all government spending by demonstrating the added-value that the expenditure gives. Modeling and Simulation (M&S) community is not exempted from this rule. This paper focuses on attempts to value standards and demonstrates that even though a myriad of different standards exist in the United States today, no one has "cracked the nut" on determining their value. This does not mean that standards are without value. The paper highlights their importance to our society and human development as a whole. Thus if we cannot give a value to M&S standards, …

Distribution Analysis Of Freight Transportation With Gravity Model And Genetic Algorithm, Jun Duanmu, Peter Foytik, Asad Khattak, R. Michael Robinson

VMASC Publications

The application of a gravity model in freight modeling work on both short-haul and long-haul trips is discussed. A commodity-based gravity model was developed to assess the distribution of freight by long-haul trucks in southeastern Virginia. Although gravity models have been used extensively in transportation studies, little work has been done to address the special characteristics of freight transportation, such as the definition of friction factors and the differences between long-haul and short-haul trips. Results of a recent study of these and similar problems provide valuable insight into freight distribution modeling. A new calibration method that used a genetic algorithm …

Evacuee Route Choice Decisions In A Dynamic Hurricane Evacuation Context, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

Very high traffic volumes may lead to extensive congestion during hurricane evacuations. Evacuation planners reduce this congestion by careful planning for multiple hurricane scenarios and assignment of evacuation routes and timing. This planning may be for naught if obstructions block key roadways. An advanced traveler information system (ATIS) may be used to guide evacuees to alternate routes, but how effective will that guidance be? Should the use of alternate routes be encouraged? How are drivers likely to respond to delays and information? Will information shorten or improve the reliability of travel times in emergency conditions? Integration of a dynamic evacuation …

Colonel Blotto Games And Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination, Andrew Collins, Patrick T. Hester

VMASC Publications

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using …

Selection Of Source And Use Of Traffic Information In Emergency Situations, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

The access and the use of advanced traveler information systems (ATISs) by drivers during normal commuting have been extensively assessed and analyzed. Emergency managers and transportation officials have extended the results of studies of ATIS use under routine conditions to emergency scenarios under the assumption that drivers' responses to information under emergency conditions mimic those seen under normal driving conditions. A recent survey of potential hurricane evacuees suggests the need to revisit this assumption. Results indicate that although commercial radio reports and variable message signs continue to be the sources of traffic information cited the most frequently, other information sources …

Route Change Decision Making By Hurricane Evacuees Facing Congestion, R. Michael Robinson, Asad Khattak

VMASC Publications

Successful evacuations of metropolitan areas require overcoming unexpected congestion that reduces traffic flows. Congestion may result from accidents, incidents, or other events that reduce road capacity. Traffic professionals and emergency managers may promote deviations from planned routes to bypass an area of congestion and speed mass exit. However, some route changes may actually reduce traffic flow rates, and in these cases decision makers may want to discourage use of alternate routes. By using results of a behavioral survey of potential hurricane evacuees, this study identifies variables associated with the decision to alter routes and also identifies frequently used information sources. …