Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Finding The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire: A Historical Data Analysis, Darryl K. Ahner, Luke M. Brantley

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to address the reasons behind the varying levels of volatile conflict and peace as seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition occurred than normally observed in previous studies for certain Middle Eastern and North African countries.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition. Also, proper strategies for handling the Arab Spring have been highly debated. This paper identifies which countries were affected by the Arab Spring and then applies data analysis techniques to predict a country’s tendency to suffer from …