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Introduction To The Special Issue, John, Lord Alderdice

New England Journal of Public Policy

This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, with Lord John Alderdice the guest editor, examines how, with the advent of sophisticated technologies & AI, the conduct of wars & peacemaking in the opening decades of the 21st century has changed with implications for the future of both & society at large.

New Technologies In Wars, Old And New, John, Lord Alderdice

New England Journal of Public Policy

Wars are often marked by technological advances and while the front line in the confrontation in the Russia-Ukraine War is between the two countries concerned, many other countries are also involved in bringing a range of weapons to bear. Some, such as drones and satellite communications, are not entirely new, but are playing a greater role than before. They are also being combined with more definitively new technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, the older ways of warfare are still center stage. Not only has there been a return of war in Europe between major powers, but even the trench …

Front Matter And Table Of Contents

New England Journal of Public Policy

Front matter and table of contents for Volume 36, Issue 1 of the New England Journal of Public Policy.

Employing Multi-Agent Ai To Model Conflict And Cooperation In Northern Ireland, Katherine O'Lone, The University Of Manchester, Michael Gantley, Culturepulse; Linacre College, University Of Oxford, Justin E. Lane, Culturepulse; Institute Of Ethnology And Social Anthropology, Slovak Academy Of Sciences, F. Leron Shults, Culturepulse; Institute For Global Development And Social Planning, University Of Agder; Norce Center For Modeling Social Systems

New England Journal of Public Policy

In this article, we outline the development of a multi-agent artificial intelligence (MAAI) model for post-conflict Northern Ireland. We discuss the insights it provides into the primary drivers of conflict and cooperation in the post-Agreement era. Analyses reveal that leading drivers of cooperation in the model are fairness and sadness, while the main drivers of conflict are related to anxiety and perceived moral authority. We examine these findings in the context of previous computational modeling efforts in Northern Ireland, the social psychological literature on intergroup conflict, and the current geopolitical landscape. We conclude by advocating for the application of this …

Brothers And Sisters From Another Mother--Promoting Inter-Cultural Understanding, Conflict Reduction, And Solidarity Among Partner Forces In The Sahel, Alain Tschudin, International Centre Of Nonviolence, Durban University Of Technology; Stellenbosch University; University Of Cambridge, James Smith, International Centre Of Nonviolence, Durban University Of Technology

New England Journal of Public Policy

The dynamics of war have changed markedly from conventional battlefield kinetic encounters to unconventional sub-threshold or asymmetric warfare, with combatants using new tactics and emergent technologies to gain a comparative advantage over their adversaries. In the face of such developments and mindful of globalized extremist challenges, we propose that fresh innovations should be encouraged with respect to the conventional training of international and African partner forces tasked with teaming up to engage security threats in the Sahel region. Accordingly, this article promotes a contemporary peacebuilding approach using a transformative, dialogical methodology that focuses on the promotion of greater inter-cultural understanding …

Understanding The Indirect Strategy Moment In Global Affairs, Kumar Ramakrishna, S. Rajaratnam School Of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article argues that policymakers need to better grasp what can best be understood as the “indirect strategy moment” in global affairs. It explains what is meant by indirect strategy in the classical strategic thought, before analyzing how indirect strategy has already been applied in the post-Cold War era. The article will then illustrate how indirect strategy is being applied in the cyber, social media, and telecommunications domains, before arguing that adopting “indirect strategy lenses” appears to be rather important in order to better frame current and ongoing geostrategic developments across a range of issues and domains. A recurring theme …

Coping With The Complexity Of The Changing Character Of War: Toward A New Paradigm Of Adaptive Peace, Cedric De Coning, Norwegian Institute Of International Affairs

New England Journal of Public Policy

The world has entered a period of heightened geopolitical instability that is compounded by climate change and the emergence of new technologies. The number of conflicts and related deaths are increasing. Dramatic failures in Afghanistan and elsewhere show that the mainstream approach to peace and conflict is no longer effective. The aim of this article is to contribute to re-thinking peace and security in two ways. First, by explaining why trying to influence complex social change process with a determined-design approach is self-defeating. Second, by introducing adaptive peace theory as a normative and functional approach to ending violent conflicts and …

Muscat, Madrid, Ulster, And The Holy Land: The Medrc Model Of Environmental Peacebuilding In A Revived Middle East Peace Process, Ciarán Ó Cuinn, Medrc

New England Journal of Public Policy

Mandated to assist the Middle East peace process through environmental diplomacy, MEDRC, the last surviving institution of that process, has survived through an institutional and operational approach to conflict resolution separate from the rest of the process. Understanding its transferable approach is important in fields of environmental diplomacy and conflict resolution not only in the context of combating transboundary climate and environmental threats but of using these threats as entry points into a peace process. As the international community grapples with the need for a credible solution to the intractable conflict in Israel and Palestine, the MEDRC approach has implications …

The Middle East: From An Inflammable Region To A Resilient Land Of Opportunities--A Case Study Of Ecopeace Middle East's Approach To Conflict And Environmental Action, Yana Abu Taleb, Ecopeace Middle East Jordan, Thalsa-Thiziri Mekaouche, Ecopeace Middle East, Yale University

New England Journal of Public Policy

The Middle East is an inflammable region on multiple levels. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, with its overwhelming loss of human lives, has further disrupted the already fragile prospect of peace in the region. It is also ‘inflammable’ from an environmental perspective, insofar as it is considered the most climate vulnerable region on Earth, with an expected 4°C increase in average temperature over the next decades. Yet, through the example of EcoPeace Middle East, an environmental and peacebuilding regional organization working in Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, this article sheds light on a theory of change that seeks to …

Pioneering The Digital Frontier: Cmi's Approach To Forward-Looking Dialogues, Johanna Poutanen, Cmi--Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation, Felix Kufus, Cmi--Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation

New England Journal of Public Policy

As contemporary conflicts grow increasingly complex, new approaches to peacemaking are needed. This article outlines how CMI – Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation (CMI) incorporates technology-enhanced foresight methodologies into its dialogue and mediation work. Digital tools, such as software dedicated to data analysis and visualization, play a key role in CMI’s foresight approach by facilitating broad-based data collection and participatory analysis. Interactive visual aids foster collective sense-making and help challenge entrenched mindsets of conflict stakeholders. The article illustrates how foresight approaches can be used to develop shared future visions and facilitate collaboration even in the context of stalled peace processes.

Personal Reflections From A Grassroots Peacebuilding Journey, Mark Clark, Saïd Business School, University Of Oxford

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article presents the author’s personal reflections from experiences over the past thirty years, working at the intersection of leadership development, complexity, and conflict: a journey from corporate law, the British Army, and armed conflict, through the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office and the US-led coalition’s intervention in Iraq, emergency humanitarian response in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and violence reduction and post-conflict reconciliation in Papua New Guinea, to a Jordan-based international peacebuilding organization that supports grassroots peacebuilding efforts in fifty-two countries, and finally a return home to Scotland. It is a journey of naïveté, hubris, curiosity, and an …

The Psychological Risks Of War Between The United States And China, Eugen Koh, Melbourne School Of Population And Global Health, University Of Melbourne

New England Journal of Public Policy

The relationship between the United States and China has deteriorated over the past two decades and fears of escalating risks of war are regularly reported in global media. This article explores the psychological factors that contribute to the two superpowers shifting from a collaborative relationship to a competitive relationship, seeing each other as enemies, feeling increasingly threatened by each other, failing to consider the heightened sensitivities that arise from their respective traumatic pasts, triggering the collapse of thinking and unleashing of uncontainable emotionality, escalating accidents to conflict, and escalating conflict to war. It highlights the dangers of ignoring heightened trauma-related …

Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley

New England Journal of Public Policy

This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, with Lord John Alderdice the guest editor, examines how, with the advent of sophisticated technologies & AI, the conduct of wars & peacemaking in the opening decades of the 21st century has changed with implications for the future of both & society at large.

The Perfect Is The Enemy Of The Good: Carbon Credits And Funding For Decarbonization In Developing Countries, Andrew A. Bernstein

New England Journal of Public Policy

Carbon credits issued in the voluntary carbon market are an important source of funding for projects in developing countries designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as forest preservation and renewable energy. Beyond their potential to provide billions of dollars of private sector financing for decarbonization, carbon credits can generate economic opportunity, employment, and biodiversity. But they are controversial, mainly (but not only) because it is difficult to confirm and to quantify their emissions benefits. This article argues that policymakers should nonetheless support voluntary carbon market growth, so long as companies use carbon credits to mitigate emissions they cannot avoid …

The How And Why Of Visual Practice At Un Climate Negotiations, Stéphanie Heckman

New England Journal of Public Policy

In this article Stéphanie Heckman examines the process and outcomes of her graphic recording work and other forms of visual practice in the context of UN climate negotiations, reflecting on three years of collaboration with the UN Climate Change Secretariat, particularly during the eighteen-month Global Stocktake process. After a review of the history and science behind visual storytelling, she analyses one of the graphic recordings made for the third meeting of the Technical Dialogue of the Global Stocktake through the lens of Kelvy Bird’s ‘Levels of Scribing’ model. Drawing on comments from delegates at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt and …

Solar Radiation Modification Governance In The Context Of Temperature Overshoot, Janos Pasztor

New England Journal of Public Policy

As the climate crisis escalates, governments—and recently even those in the wealthier countries in the Global North—are struggling to manage the impacts we are experiencing around the world in frightening abundance, including record-setting temperatures, fires, floods, and glacial and ice melt. Behind closed doors, policymakers are concerned as they contemplate the increasing likelihood, even under the most ambitious emission reduction pathways, that the world will overshoot the goal agreed upon in the Paris Agreement to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5oC beyond pre-industrial levels.

It is in this “overshoot context” that interest is growing in an emerging, potentially supplementary …

The Role Of Carbon Management Technologies In Meeting Net Zero, Ali Al-Saffar

New England Journal of Public Policy

The pathway toward implementing the changes necessary in the energy sector to keep global temperature rises from breaking through catastrophic barriers is narrow and tenuous and will require a range of zero- and low-carbon technologies to be dispatched at a speed and scale that is virtually unprecedented. Decarbonization through renewables, matched with the more efficient use of energy in the end-use sectors will play a large part. But there is growing realization that there will be residual fossil fuel use long into the future, and that the emissions from the burning of these fossil fuels in power plants and factories …

Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley, Adanna C. Kalejaye

New England Journal of Public Policy

To coincide with COP28 in Dubai, this issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy published a series of articles on climate warming.

Results Of Cop27 And Expectations For Cop28, Cecilia Kinuthia-Njenga, Fareed Yasseen

New England Journal of Public Policy

Since 1995, government representatives from around the world have gathered nearly every year for the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP) to advance work on multilateral agreements and to provide a way forward in tackling the significant challenges of climate change. The last of these conferences took place on November 6–20, 2022, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

COP27 brought together more than 35,000 people from across the globe to deliberate on important actions for addressing the climate. Hailed as the “African COP” and “Implementation COP,” it raised expectations that decisions from previous conferences, reflecting the needs and priorities of the …

Joint Global Responsibility Fund For Climate, Conservation, And Communities: A Proposed Innovative Tax-Based Funding Mechanism, Tamar Ron

New England Journal of Public Policy

Nature-based solutions address biodiversity loss, climate change, and societal challenges at the local, national, regional, and global levels. The costs of their conservation, however, are mostly local and national in nature. Confronting the rolling dual crisis of biodiversity loss and climate change requires us to recognize nature’s intrinsic value. Moreover, we must find practical ways for their monetary valuation to be channeled as payment for the services of conservation custodians. It is suggested here to translate the value of natural assets and the understanding of the local costs and global benefits of their conservation, into an innovative and ambitious funding …

The Gulf: An Appeal For More Coordinated Action On Climate Change, Fareed Yasseen

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article seeks to provide the rationale behind Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani’s call at the United Nations for the formation of a negotiating group within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process that brings together all member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq, and Iran. This article argues that these countries would benefit doubly from such an arrangement, because it would help them better address the direct effects of climate change, on the one hand, and to better address the effects of the measures taken to address climate change, which will affect them as fossil fuel producers, …

Cop27 And The New Rise Of The Global South, Janice Golding

New England Journal of Public Policy

Developing countries require direct and indirect financial and non-financial assistance to address the climate crisis. The COP27 announcement of a new Loss and Damage Fund as well the unveiling of the Bridgetown Initiative collectively hold substantial promise to alter the course of climate multilateralism. The outcome of COP27 has presented unprecedented opportunities for the Global South to build global solidarity for climate justice, but the path ahead will not be easy. Materialization of support to developing countries may be, at best, not sustainable, or at worst, unforeseeable without consistent application of principles and values enshrined in historic, moral accountability for …

Reset Or Revolution? Contemporary Problems Of Political Stability And Some Ancient Solutions, Dariusz Karłowicz

New England Journal of Public Policy

In this article I take a critical look into the challenges faced by the contemporary social, political, and economic scene in Europe and the United States after nearly eighty years of political stability. I question the sources of the anger, frustration, and distrust toward national and supranational institutions that are visible both on the streets and in the light of numerous public opinion polls. I argue that political and legal stability—the driving force and most desirable product of Western democracies—is becoming a problem. Through the tendency to permanent, often hereditary, marginalization of large groups of the population, a stable political …

Toward A New Political Project: Resetting By Reconceptualizing, Scherto Gill

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article starts by pointing out that existing proposals to confront the failures of democracy tend to be limited to tackling the symptoms of the current dysfunctional system rather than offering meaningful alternatives to transform the system. It then suggests that a total reset is required and offers an innovative theoretical framework, to conceptualize the new political project, that can transcend the existing impasses. It further argues that such a framework ought to consist in four fundamental, interdependent, and mutually reinforcing principles: (1) equal primary, non-derivative value of all persons; (2) non-instrumentalization of persons; (3) well-being of all as a …

Peacemaking And Peacebuilding In A Divided Society: South Africa’S National Peace Accord In The Transition From Apartheid To Democracy, Liz Carmichael

New England Journal of Public Policy

South Africa’s complex history is outlined, providing an explanatory background to the two chief conflicts that existed in 1990 as the apartheid era drew to a close: the divide between the government with its security forces and the majority of the population, and grassroots violence between African National Congress supporters and the conservative Inkatha movement. During the 1990s, as South Africa accomplished its transition, a series of structures were created to manage the process. The best remembered is the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which was the final transitional structure, holding its hearings in 1996–98. The first was the National Peace …

The Art And Artifacts Of Solidarity, Yasmin Merali

New England Journal of Public Policy

In Complex Adaptive Systems in a Contentious World I showed how viewing social systems as Complex Adaptive Systems exposes the systemic mechanisms that underpin their resilience and sustainability. In this article I show the utility of that approach for elucidating the role of art and artists in the evolution of resilient social movements. I do this by exploring the way in which art and artifacts were implicated in the evolution of the Polish Solidarność movement.

Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley

New England Journal of Public Policy

The articles in this issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy primarily interrogate the challenges facing democracy and democratic peacebuilding in divided societies.

Referendum Metrics: The Numbers Game, Chapter Five From Perils And Prospects Of A United Ireland, Padraig O'Malley

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article is an extract from Perils and Prospects of a United Ireland, published by Lilliput Press, Dublin, Ireland in March 2023. The book draws on extensive interviews with ninety-seven senior politicians across the ethno-national divide, a range of academics and political commentators, and religious leaders.

The context for the chapter is the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA), which ended thirty years of violent conflict between Irish republicans, mostly Catholic, who wanted Northern Ireland to become reunified with the rest of Ireland, and unionists, mostly Protestants supported by British security forces, who wanted to maintain the union of Northern Ireland …

Seeing Race As We Are: Avoiding, Arguing, Aspiring, Michael A. Cowan

New England Journal of Public Policy

Racial conflict in the United States pushes people to positions of argument or avoidance, more or less intensely and for varying lengths of time, depending on external events like the murder of George Floyd. Neither stance produces the conversations required to seek common ground and compromise around racial issues. Argument alone deepens divisions and avoidance leaves them to metastasize in the social body. In an attempt to go beneath these two positions, this article first explains the role and form of interpretation in all conflict and dispute resolution and how it is shaped. Then it examines the concepts and strategies …

Visual Report Of Cop26, Stéphanie Heckman

New England Journal of Public Policy

As a visual practitioner my job is to draw people’s thoughts, and in so doing, help people make sense of them. The visual summaries I create live during conferences aim to capture more than just the dry content, but also the dynamic, the mood and the unspoken. It is a tool more aligned with how our associative, sensory-fed brains work, for coping with the deluge of information that faces us these days. And it’s a tool that can help overcome language, learning and other barriers to access.

When I discovered in January 2020 that the next Conference of the Parties, …