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The Effects Of Test Result And Diagnosticity On Physicians’ Revisions Of Probability Of Disease In Medical Diagnosis, Ann Elizabeth Sinclair

Dissertations and Theses

This study examined the effects of sensitivity, specificity and result of diagnostic tests on the uses which physicians make of those results. These were compared with the Bayesian model of probability adjustment, which is generally accepted for medical diagnosis. Ninety six active members of the Oregon Academy of Family Physicians were interviewed by telephone, using a case scenario describing a patient with a newly discovered breast lump. Subjects estimated prior probability of malignancy, based on history and physical findings, and then estimated posterior probability following results of a mammogram. Mammograms varied by result (positive or negative) and by high and …