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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Recent empirical studies suggest insurgencies may be accurately described by aggregated extrapolation models, such that past behavior becomes the best predictor for future action. I argue that aggregated extrapolation models possess two flaws that make it a poor choice for examining insurgencies. First, aggregated extrapolation models ask the wrong question. The more interesting question is to ask when present action is no longer explainable by past behavior. Secondly, aggregate models mask changes that a phenomenon undergoes over time which are only revealed upon disaggregating the data. Starting with a model and findings provided by Neil Johnson, I use casualty data …
The Use Of English-Language Internet Propaganda By The Taliban Insurgency In Afghanistan, 2007–2010, Matthew T. Calvin
The Use Of English-Language Internet Propaganda By The Taliban Insurgency In Afghanistan, 2007–2010, Matthew T. Calvin
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
After nearly a decade of war in Afghanistan, military and government officials have described the propaganda efforts of the Taliban insurgency as increasingly sophisticated and effective. These statements fail to distinguish between insurgent propaganda efforts at the local level and those carried out online and targeted at Western populations. This research investigates the effectiveness of the Taliban's use of English-language media to reach Western populations and shape their own image in a way that furthers their strategic objectives. An analytical approach that combines quantitative analysis performed on a set of Taliban messages from 2007 to 2010 and a deeper, qualitative …