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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons

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Political Science

Union College

Honors Theses

2017

Vector autoregression

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The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On The Stock Market Returns In Developed Economies, Ian Zangrillo Jun 2017

The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On The Stock Market Returns In Developed Economies, Ian Zangrillo

Honors Theses

This paper examines the effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in OECD countries specifically Canada France Germany Japan United Kingdom United States and Norway. The empirical method used is the vector autoregression (VAR) model where a generalized impulse response function is applied to the results of the VAR to determine how stock prices respond to a shock in oil prices. The VAR model uses quarterly data for the period 1994 to 2016 for the following variables: interest rates real GDP real stock returns real UK Brent crude oil and APSP crude oil index. To take into account structural …