Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Vive La Différence?: Is There A Gender Gap In Campaign Strategy And Spending, And Does It Matter?, Paul S. Herrnson, Charles Hunt, Jaclyn J. Kettler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Record numbers of women were elected into office in the US in recent years, and campaign financing may have contributed to their successes. This raises two questions: Is there a gender gap in campaign strategy and spending? And if there is, does it have an impact on election outcomes? Using a new dataset that includes itemized campaign expenditures for the almost 3,500 candidates who contested a House election between 2012 and 2020, we report little evidence of a gender gap in candidates’ campaign spending, but we find some differences in the effects of communications spending on women’s and men’s electoral …

Local Candidate Roots And Electoral Advantages In Us State Legislatures, Charles Russell Hunt, Stella Rouse

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A growing literature has revealed a notable electoral advantage for congressional and gubernatorial candidates with deep local roots in their home districts or states. However, there is a dearth of research on the presence and impact of local roots in state legislative races. In this paper, we close that gap by demonstrating the consistent and significant electoral impacts that state legislators’ local roots have on their reelection efforts. We use data capturing a representative cross-section of state legislative incumbents (N = ~5,000) and calculate a novel index measuring the depth of their local roots modeled after Hunt’s (2022, Home …

Voter Id Laws And Gendered Impacts On Voter Turnout, Jacqueline D. Franolich

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Since well before the U.S. presidential election of 2020, voter identification laws have been a topic of discussion amongst politicians, voters, the news media, and scholars. Many have questioned the focus and true reason for their creation, their implementation, their effects and potential unintended consequences. Specifically, many have argued that voter identification laws pose too great a barrier to potential voters to be worth the benefits gained in election security. Since the election of 2020, those discussions seemed to magnify. For example, in a May 2021 speech, President Biden repeated similar assertions made in the past by scholars and activists …

Authoritarian Tendencies In The American Presidency, Erica Serros

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This thesis attempts to determine if authoritarian tendencies are becoming more or less prevalent in the modern American presidency. Presidential and authoritarian scholars agree that authoritarianism is trending in a more insidious manner in the modern world and that most democracies today are being subverted more inconspicuously by elected officials. The most powerful checks on the power of the president are Congress and the judicial branch, two institutions that do exercise their constitutionally granted powers in some cases, but do not always exert their power in solidarity, leading to discrepancies in the constraint of the president. The presence of conflict …

A Fractured Electorate?: French Presidental Election Forecasting For 2022, Ross E. Burkhart

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper forecasts the first round of the French presidential election five months in advance. It uses a key industry-standard structural variable in its forecasting model, approval of the French president. Its parsimony allows for an early forecast, but its potential for error is higher. In the end, the forecast was somewhat off the mark, though it accurately showed the strength of a somewhat attenuated left. However, the structure of French political parties has changed dramatically over the past several years, leaving some doubt as to the reliability of this forecasting technique.

On Preserving A Political Community In Revolutionary Times, Scott Yenor

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Among the hardest things to do in politics is to understand the current situation. Partisan loyalties cloud perspective. Political actors make overwrought charges in order to rile up their partisans. Things that seem important often are not, while small changes can lead to political revolutions. Revolutions often come without countries or political communities knowing, until it is too late.

Women’S Human Development Outcomes In India: A Closer Look At Fdi Inflows, Economic Structure, And Female Labor Force Participation, Nisha Bellinger

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Global human development trends display a consistent improvement over time. However, these indicators may not improve at the same pace or even trend in the same direction. India is one such country that displays intriguing trends. While women’s education and health outcomes have improved over the years, women’s political representation and labor force participation rates are lagging behind. This chapter focuses on female labor force participation (FLFP) in India, which has declined in recent years. I discuss the nature of India’s globalizing economy, specifically foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, in conjunction with the changing structure of the domestic economy, to …

Rural Decentralization And Infant Mortality Among Select Indian States: A Preliminary Analysis, Nisha Bellinger

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In 1992 the 73rd amendment to the Indian constitution called on states to create and empower rural local governments. Despite the amendment, however, there is variation in the extent of decentralization of power from states to rural local governments in the country. How has this process of decentralization influenced health outcomes in India? The research note addresses this question by collecting preliminary data on political, administrative and fiscal decentralization and examining trends in different dimensions of decentralization and infant mortality rates among select states (Assam, Rajasthan, Kerala and Tamil Nadu) from 1994 to 2017. These states display disparities in the …

Political Effects On The Discontinuation Of Participatory Budgeting In Municipalities, Ricardo Rocha De Azevedo, Ricardo Lopes Cardoso, Armando Santos Moreira Da Cunha, Brian Wampler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The article analyzes the factors associated with the discontinuation of participatory budgeting (PB) in Brazilian municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants between 2000 and 2016. We used econometric models to estimate PB’s discontinuation based on political explanatory variables and people’s local participation. The results indicate that discontinuation is associated: (i) positively with the election of a different local government, regardless of the winning party’s ideology; (ii) positively with the election of a local government with a left-wing ideology’; (iii) negatively with the election of a non-left-wing local government; (iv) positively with the election of a left-wing local government replacing another …

Evaluating Imf Structural Conditionality And Good Governance: Has Streamlining Worked To Reduce Corruption?, Yila Ataman

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

At the turn of the century, while facing significant criticism for the inherent invasiveness of structural conditionality, the frequently high number of conditional requirements attached to loans, and relatively low implementation rates of conditional reforms, the IMF made a series of changes to their conditionality practices to streamline back to their core organizational mission of macroeconomic stability. The IMF defends its continued use of structural conditions with the institutional transparency and accountability that these conditions seek to impose, thereby reducing corruption. IMF structural conditions can however create new opportunities for corrupt linkages to develop and limit the state’s institutional capacity …

Climate Shocks And Violent Conflict Incentives: Evidence From The Indian Sub-Continent, Thomas Campbell

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

How much do climate shocks impact different societal actors’ incentives to commit direct acts of violence? This thesis argues that different climate shocks and their effects introduce incentives for different societal actors to increase and reduce their likelihood of committing direct acts of violence, which is in line with Brzoska’s (2018) claim. The results of this thesis’ analysis support that different climate shocks can lead different societal actors to commit acts of violence.

Arguing For The Philosophy Of Political Science, Robert Herold

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

While there are many working scientists who engage in things like theory building and empirical testing, there has also been a group of scientists who sought to better understand the philosophy behind science. This philosophical study of science as a project is referred to as the philosophy of science and there are different sub-fields for each of the natural and social sciences, except for political science. This lack of an explicit sub-field dedicated to reflecting on our philosophy of science, i.e., our beliefs, values, methods, etc., has caused this knowledge to become tacit within our community. Because the knowledge of …

Votes And Voices: Minority Languages And Electoral Substate Nationalism In Spain And The United Kingdom, Valeryn Shepherd

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Substate nationalist political parties are a key component of the electoral politics of Spain and the United Kingdom. The demographic support that these parties receive is often tied to speakers of regional languages. In this paper, six regions in the two countries - Scotland, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Galicia - are examined using geographic data analysis to determine whether communities with a high level of minority language speakers are more likely to vote for substate nationalist parties. In most of the cases, I find that there is a strong connection between the two.

Extremism And Its Effects On Idaho Legislation, Steve D. Sutherland

IPS/BAS 495 Undergraduate Capstone Projects

The Capstone Project covers, through documented interviews and insights, practitioners, journalists, and researchers that have endeavored to recognize and reconcile the effects of extremism in Idaho legislation. The referenced articles and academic journals also shed light on how this is not unique to the Gem State and how it is manifesting and evolving within the United States. This paper describes my approaches to researching this topic and the challenges of its polarization and political realities. I cover how creating an innovative approach can bring together different perspectives. Emotional intelligence is vital in exploring a hot-button issue such as this. Awareness …

Growing Tea With Subnational Roots: Tea Party Affiliation, Factionalism, And Gop Politics In State Legislatures, Stella M. Rouse, Charles Hunt, Kristen Essel

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Most research has examined the influence of the Tea Party as a social movement or loose organization, but less is known about its influence within legislative party politics, especially at the state level. In this paper, we argue that in this context the Tea Party is primarily an intraparty faction that has caused significant divisions inside the Republican Party. Using an original dataset of legislators across 13 states for the years 2010 to 2013, we examine legislator and district-level characteristics that predict state legislators’ affiliation with the Tea Party. Our results reveal that in some respects legislators affiliated with the …

Is It Us? Is It Them? Or Is It This Place?: Predicting Civility In State Legislatures, Jaclyn J. Kettler, Luke Fowler, Stephanie L. Witt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

While many scholars and analysts have observed a decline in civility in recent years, there have been few examinations of how political, economic, and institutional structures may partially explain inter-state differences in these trends. We suggest three potential explanations: (1) institutional structures, such as legislative professionalism and gubernatorial power, have created different contexts in which legislators build and maintain inter-personal relationships; (2) partisan competition has led to less bipartisan cooperation and contributed to strained relationships between members of different parties; and, (3) economic inequity and change has contributed to economic anxiety among citizens, contributing to conflict in legislative bodies as …

Buying Their Way In: Redistribution Of Campaign Resources As A Path To State Legislative Leadership For Women, Jaclyn J. Kettler

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Women continue to be underrepresented in legislative leadership. This is concerning in U.S. legislatures, where leaders have substantial control over resources and policymaking. As an outgroup, women face additional barriers to power in politics, making it difficult to become a legislative leader. How can women gain influence within their political party? I argue one potential path for overcoming these barriers is the redistribution of campaign resources to other party actors, which helps facilitate connections in the party. These relationships help candidates gain influence, and they can draw on them for support in the legislature. Do women candidates redistribute funds to …

The Effect Of Partisan Representation At Different Levels Of Government On Satisfaction With Democracy In The United States, Julie Vandusky-Allen, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper, we analyze how variations in partisan representation across different levels of government influence Americans’ satisfaction with the democracy in the United States. We conduct two survey experiments and analyze data from the 2016 American National Election Study postelection survey. We find that Americans are the most satisfied with democracy when their most preferred party controls both the federal and their respective state governments. However, we also find that even if an individual’s least preferred party only controls one level of government, they are still more satisfied with democracy than if their most preferred party controls no levels …

The Trump Administration Feuded With State And Local Leaders Over Pandemic Response – Now The Biden Administration Is Trying To Turn Back A Page In History, Ana Maria Dimand, Benjamin M. Brunjes

Public Policy and Administration Faculty Publications and Presentations

As the U.S. recovers from the pandemic, the Biden administration is working to rebuild relationships across levels of government, from the top to the bottom, that were strained during the presidency of Donald Trump.

In November 2020, Biden offered urban leaders a seat at the table in coronavirus recovery efforts, promising to avoid partisanship. Addressing the National League of Cities in March 2021, Harris praised urban leadership on COVID-19 – cities like Seattle and New York were among the first to respond to the pandemic, developing testing protocols, tracking new infections and supplying equipment for hospitals – and highlighted the …

Domestic Terrorism In The Developing World: Role Of Food Security, Nisha Bellinger, Kyle T. Kattelman

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This article sheds light on the root causes of terrorism by assessing the effect of food security on domestic terrorism among developing countries. Food security is a fundamental physiological need and captures a core well-being outcome. We argue that food insecurity creates grievances among citizens and increases demand among them for action against the government. Terrorist organisations provide the opportunity for citizens to channel their grievances against the government by resolving collective action problems and mobilising citizens. We demonstrate the link between food insecurity and domestic terrorism through quantitative analyses on a sample of 70 developing countries from 1980 to …

How America’S Partisan Divide Over Pandemic Responses Played Out In The States, Julie Vandusky-Allen, Olga Shvetsova

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, a partisan divide has existed over the appropriate government response to the public health crisis. Democrats have been more likely to favor stricter policies such as prolonged economic shutdowns, limits on gathering in groups and mask mandates. Republicans overall have favored less stringent policies.

The Fickle Financiers Of Elections?: The Impact Of Moving On Individual Contributions, Jaclyn J. Kettler, Jeffrey Lyons

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

What is the effect of a change in geographic location on the behavior of campaign donors? Looking at people who move presents a unique opportunity to assess the ways in which political behavior is altered by external circumstances. Holding the individual constant and observing how donation patterns vary under different external conditions allows us to explore donor behaviors in ways that are more difficult when using cross-sectional data. We use the DIME dataset to compare the donation behavior of over 7,000 individuals in the U.S. House election before and after they have moved. We observe the ways in which changes …

Expanding Constituency Support Through Shared Local Roots In U.S. House Primaries, Charles Hunt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper addresses the enduring connection of localism and place-based roots shared between many elected leaders and their constituents, which previous work has either ignored or improperly specified. I argue that representatives of the U.S. House with these roots—meaning authentic, lived experience in their districts prior to their officeholding—sustain more supportive constituencies in primary election stage. Using an original 7-point index of local biographical characteristics of incumbents seeking renomination from 2002 to 2018, I find that deeply-rooted incumbents are less than half as likely to receive a primary challenge, and on average perform more than 5 percentage points better in …

Beyond Partisanship: Outperforming The Party Label With Local Roots In Congressional Elections, Charles R. Hunt

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

While factors like partisanship are increasingly decisive in congressional elections, they do not fully explain variation in constituency support between similarly situated incumbents. I argue that legislators’ reelection success is also influenced by the depth of their local, pre-Congress roots in the district they represent. I theorize that this local connection offers practical advantages to incumbents, such as built-in grassroots political infrastructure in their districts. Shared local identity also allows legislators to relate to their voters on a dimension that is uniquely suited to cross-cut partisanship and qualify them to represent their particular constituents. Therefore, I argue that local roots …

Diplomatic Intervention And The Effects Of Third-Party State Power On Intrastate War Outcome, Alexann Sandberg

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This paper seeks to examine the role third-party states may play as diplomatic intervenors in intrastate wars. Because diplomatic interventions seek settlement outcomes over military victory, understanding the efficacy of these interventions may provide support for their usage over non-diplomatic options. I hypothesize that third-party state power, in the form of military, economic, and political capabilities, will impact the likelihood of diplomatic intervention outcome; more powerful third-party states will have a greater likelihood of producing preferred outcomes. I use 12 multinomial regression models to examine this relationship. I find that economic capabilities are the only factor of state power that …

Grand Old (Tailgate) Party?: Partisan Discrimination In Apolitical Settings, Andrew M. Engelhardt, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent work in political science demonstrates that the American public is strongly divided on partisan lines. Levels of affective polarization are so great, it seems, that partisanship even shapes behavior in apolitical settings. However, this literature does not account for other salient identity dimensions on which people make decisions in apolitical settings, potentially stacking the deck in favor of partisanship. We address this limitation with a pair of experiments studying price discrimination among college football fans. We find that partisan discrimination exists, even when the decision context explicitly calls attention to another social identity. But, importantly, this appears to function …

Ethnic Fractionalization, Corruption, And Trust In The Courts, Sinan Nadarevic

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Prior research has examined the effects of ethnic fractionalization on trust in political institutions. However, most of the literature focuses on a general understanding of political trust, disregarding the relationship between ethnic fractionalization and individual trust in the legal system. I argue that high levels of ethnic fractionalization decrease trust in the courts. To provide empirical support for my theory, I use individual-level survey data from 32 African and Latin American countries from 2013 and I produce two findings. First, using multiple OLS fixed effects regression analysis, I find that ethnic fractionalization decreases trust in the courts. Second, using mediation …

A Voter-Centric Explanation Of The Success Of Ideological Candidates For The U.S. House, Stephen M. Utych

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent years, ideological candidates for the U.S. House have become increasingly successful, to the point where their chances of being elected are indistinguishable from moderates. However, scholars have still not uncovered exactly why this is happening. Using survey data from the American National Election Studies, I find that voter-centric explanations of vote choice – a voter’s partisanship, ideology, and presidential approval rating – have increasingly predicted their vote choice in U.S. House elections from 1980 to 2016. Using data on candidate ideology, I find that candidate ideology is an increasingly poor predictor of individual vote choice over time. Original …

How The Coronavirus Increases Terrorism Threats In The Developing World, Nisha Bellinger, Kyle Kattelman

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.

We are political scientists who study the developing world and political conflict. Our recently published research identifies a potential link between the pandemic and an uptick in violence. We find that food insecurity – the lack of both financial and physical access to nutritious food, which leads to malnutrition and undernourishment in a population – makes citizens angry …

The Unintentional Gerrymandering Of America: How Population Shifts In Congressional Districts Contribute To The Wasting Of Votes, As Measured By The Efficiency Gap, Hannah Sharp

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Thanks to the foresight of our Founding Fathers we are required by law to redraw legislative boundaries every ten years, after the decennial census. These boundaries create districts at both the state and federal legislative level, and there are many guidelines which govern how districts can be drawn in order to provide for fair competition and accurate representation. Population distribution is key to how electoral districts are drawn at all levels. In recent decades, increasing concentrated populations of Democrats in urban areas and decreasing population in rural, more Republican areas has made it harder to draw competitive districts at the …