Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

It's The Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting And Gender Bias In U.S. Congressional Elections, Grace Lutz

Scripps Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between the state of the U.S. economy and the outcome of general elections for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives. The analysis uses a unique data set compiled from a sample of U.S. Congressional Elections and state and economic indicators between the years 1999 and 2014. We find that economic indicators are consistently related to election outcomes, but have a larger and more significant effect when the time period examined is closer to a major economic event, such as the Great Recession. We also find that female incumbent candidates are more negatively affected by …