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Articles 1 - 30 of 92
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Getting Dynamic Implementation To Work, Yi-Chun Chen, Richard Holden, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Tom Wilkening
Getting Dynamic Implementation To Work, Yi-Chun Chen, Richard Holden, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun, Tom Wilkening
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a new class of two-stage mechanisms, which fully implement any social choice function under initial rationalizability in complete information environments. We show theoretically that our Simultaneous Report (SR) mechanisms are robust to small amounts of incomplete information about the state of nature. We also highlight the robustness of the mechanisms to a wide variety of reasoning processes and behavioral assumptions. We show experimentally that a SR mechanism performs well in inducing truth-telling in both complete and incomplete information environments and that it can induce efficient investment in a two-sided hold-up problem with ex-ante investment. The SR mechanism also …
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …
Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang
Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.
The Search For Spices And Souls: Catholic Missions As Colonial State In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
The Search For Spices And Souls: Catholic Missions As Colonial State In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
A growing literature posits that colonial Christian missions brought schooling to the colonies, improving human capital in ways that persist to this day. But in some places they did much more. This paper argues that colonial Catholic missions in the Philippines functioned as state-builders, establishing law and order and building fiscal and infrastructural capacities in territories they controlled. The mission-as-state was the result of a bargain between the Catholic missions and the Spanish colonial government: missionaries converted the population and engaged in state-building, whereas the colonial government reaped the benefits of state expansion while staying in the capital. Exposure to …
Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji
Political Connections, Informational Asymmetry, And The Efficient Resolution Of Financial Distress, Madhav S. Aney, Sanjay Banerji
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show that securities issued by a distressed firm, often through exchange offers, providethe most efficient resolution of financial restructuring. Information asymmetry between thefirm-bank coalition and small bondholders gives rise to other forms of distress resolutionsuch as refinancing, public workout, and the inefficiency of liquidation. We find that politicallobbying by the firm-bank amplifies these inefficiencies and inhibits the development of privatemarket for distressed securities. Cross-country evidence is consistent with this and indicatesthat improved creditor rights, and information facilitating credit bureaus interact in reducingthe likelihood of inefficient distress resolution.
The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito
The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
The Fukushima nuclear disaster was profoundly a man-made one, resulting from the organizational failure of nuclear emergency preparedness. To fully understand the cause of this disaster, I propose to extend an organizational perspective on disasters into a macro-institutional perspective on disaster preparedness. To this end, I borrow from science and technology studies the concepts of "sociotechnical imaginary" and "civic epistemology" to probe the deepest layers of meaning-making constitutive of disaster preparedness. I then apply these concepts to the history of nuclear energy in postwar Japan that was centered on the developmental state pursuing industrial transformation. Specifically, I illustrate how the …
The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito
The Imaginary And Epistemology Of Disaster Preparedness: The Case Of Japan's Nuclear Safety Failure, Hiro Saito
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
The Fukushima nuclear disaster was profoundly a man-made one, resulting from the organiza-tional failure of nuclear emergency preparedness. To fully understand the cause of this disaster, I propose to extend an organizational perspective on disasters into a macro-institutional perspec-tive on disaster preparedness. To this end, I borrow from science and technology studies the concepts of "sociotechnical imaginary" and "civic epistemology" to probe the deepest layers of meaning-making constitutive of disaster preparedness. I then apply these concepts to the history of nuclear energy in postwar Japan that was centered on the developmental state pursuing in-dustrial transformation. Specifically, I illustrate how the …
Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen
Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen
Research Collection School Of Economics
In most democracies, members of parliament (MPs) are elected either through a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German electoral system to investigate the causal effect of a district election on an MP’s conformity with the party line. A district election does not affect roll-call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party-line voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party-line discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches …
Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen
Does A District Mandate Matter For The Behavior Of Politicians? An Analysis Of Roll-Call Votes And Parliamentary Speeches, Andreas Born, Aljoscha Janssen
Research Collection School Of Economics
In most democracies, members of parliament (MPs) are elected either through a party list or by a district. We use a discontinuity in the German electoral system to investigate the causal effect of a district election on an MP’s conformity with the party line. A district election does not affect roll-call voting behavior causally, possibly due to overall high adherence to party-line voting. Analyzing the parliamentary speeches of each MP allows us to overcome the high party-line discipline with regard to parliamentary voting. Using textual analysis and machine learning techniques, we create two measures of closeness of an MP’s speeches …
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Research Collection School Of Economics
Decree powers are common to presidential systems; they are rarely found in parliamentary ones. We analyze decree powers in one such rare setting: India. We show that bicameral minority governments in India systematically use ordinances to circumvent parliament and prosecute their legislative agendas. They promulgate more ordinances, enact less legislation, and often repromulgate lapsed ordinances. These patterns suggest that, with bicameral minority governments, the locus of lawmaking shifts to the executive branch. While both majority and minority governments invoke ordinances, the latter do so systematically to get around their parliamentary deficit. In the hands of minority governments, then, the mechanism …
When Running For Office Runs In The Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy And Development In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
When Running For Office Runs In The Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy And Development In The Philippines, Dean C. Dulay
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Political dynasties exist in practically every variant of democracy, but take different forms in different places. Yet the types of dynastic structures have remained unexplored. We argue that horizontal dynasties—multiple members from the same political family holding different political offices concurrently— affect policymaking by replacing potential political rivals, who may oppose an incumbent’s policy choices, with a member of the family. But in developing countries, the policy change that accrues from dynastic status may not lead to higher levels of economic development. We test this argument’s implications in the Philippines. Employing a close elections regression discontinuity design on a sample …
Adam Smith, Settler Colonialism, And Limits Of Liberal Anti-Imperialism, Onur Ulas Ince
Adam Smith, Settler Colonialism, And Limits Of Liberal Anti-Imperialism, Onur Ulas Ince
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Recent scholarship has claimed Adam Smith's frontal attack on the mercantile system as a precocious expression of liberal anti-imperialism. This paper argues that settler colonialism in North America represented an important exception and limit to Smith’s anti-imperial commitments. Smith spared agrarian settler colonies from his invective against other imperial practices like chattel slavery and trade monopolies because of the colonies’ evidentiary significance for his “system of natural liberty.” Smith’s embrace of settler colonies involved him in an ideological conundrum insofar as the prosperity of these settlements rested on imperial expansion and seizure of land from the indigenous peoples. Smith navigated …
Asset Classes, Nicolas L. Jacquet
Asset Classes, Nicolas L. Jacquet
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a theory of endogenous differences in liquidity of assets based on the interaction between differences in the risk of assets and differences in liquidity needs of investors. An equilibrium of the model, which always exists and is unique, displays a class structure, where investors’ types sort themselves across different types of assets. I also provide a detailed analysis of the possible types of sorting and of the consequences for the cross-sectional properties of asset prices and their velocity. The framework can also be useful to think about what constitute a ""light-to-liquidity" and a "safe asset".
The Developmental State And Public Participation: The Case Of Energy Policymaking In Post-Fukushima Japan, Hiro Saito
The Developmental State And Public Participation: The Case Of Energy Policymaking In Post-Fukushima Japan, Hiro Saito
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, the Japanese government tried to democratize energy policy-making by introducing public participation. Over the course of its implementation, however, public participation came to be subordinated to expert committees as the primary mechanism of policy rationalization. The expert committees not only neutralized the results of public participation but also discounted the necessity of public participation itself. This trajectory of public participation, from its historic introduction to eventual collapse, can be fully explained only in reference to complex interactions between the macroinstitutions and microsituations of Japanese policy-making at the time of the nuclear disaster: the macroinstitutional …
Swinging Shale: Shale Oil, Global Oil Market, And The Geopolitics Of Oil, Inwook Kim
Swinging Shale: Shale Oil, Global Oil Market, And The Geopolitics Of Oil, Inwook Kim
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Is shale oil “revolutionizing” the global oil market and the geopolitics of oil? If so, how? While two aspects of the shale boom—a new source of supply and a cause for the price collapse in 2014–2015—dominate the conventional wisdom, I argue that the most revolutionary change is the least understood aspect of shale oil—shale oil producers’ rise as new swing suppliers due to its unique extraction technique and cost structure. Shale oil producers also differ from traditional swing producers in motives, contexts, and an amount of accessible excess capacity such that while shale oil lowers the medium-term price ceiling, it …
Political Connections And The Value Of Cash Holdings, Yuanto Kusnadi
Political Connections And The Value Of Cash Holdings, Yuanto Kusnadi
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
This study examines how political connections influence the value of cash holdings in an international setting. The main finding reveals that political connections are not associated with the value of cash holdings in the overall sample. However, further analysis demonstrates that political connections are negatively associated with the value of cash holdings for firms inemerging markets and in countries with high levels of corruption. Moreover, the negative valuation of cash holdings is driven by firms that are connected through large shareholders. Overall, the findings provide new insights into the value relevance of cash holdings, especially for politically connected firms.
Policy Effectiveness And Capacity: Two Sides Of The Design Coin, Ishani Mukherjee, Azad S. Bali
Policy Effectiveness And Capacity: Two Sides Of The Design Coin, Ishani Mukherjee, Azad S. Bali
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Policy capacity and effectiveness are two themes that have opened new pathways for academic and empirical enquiry throughout the policy sciences. In the contemporary discourse of policy design, effectiveness has taken on a more foundational meaning that goes beyond what is understood as only the attainment of specific policy goals. Rather, it has come to occupy a central position in the study of policy design, signifying the broader logic of deliberate policy action used to articulate policy problems and present alternative ways of addressing them. Effectiveness thus signals both effectual processes as well as successful policy outcomes. However, what constitutes …
Sanctions For Nuclear Inhibition: Comparing Sanctions Conditions Between Iran And North Korea, Inwook Kim, Jung-Chul Lee
Sanctions For Nuclear Inhibition: Comparing Sanctions Conditions Between Iran And North Korea, Inwook Kim, Jung-Chul Lee
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Whendo sanctions succeed in nuclear inhibition? Is there a generalizable frameworkto estimate sanction effectiveness against nuclear aspirants? Instead ofrelying on partial equilibrium analysis, we conceptualize sanctions as threesequential phases—imposition of economic pain, conversation to politicalpressure, and creation (or failure thereof) of zone of possible agreement(ZOPA). The effectiveness of each phase is subject to phase-specific contextualvariables, an aggregation of which helps measure individual sanction’s effectiveness,conduct cross-case comparison, and estimate one’s replicability in other cases.To illustrate its analytical utility, we analyze the divergent sanctionoutcomes between Iran in 2012-2015 and North Korea 2013-2017. Iran waseconomically more vulnerable, politically less resilient, and its bargainingposition …
U.S. Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2018, Singapore Management University
U.S. Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2018, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Fed rates to inch up as GDP grows but China-U.S. trade war is a major worry
Anwar Ibrahim: Forgiveness, Character And Values Can Rescue Malaysia, Singapore Management University
Anwar Ibrahim: Forgiveness, Character And Values Can Rescue Malaysia, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Anwar returned to the political fray for the country's youth despite the threat of imprisonment; they can rebuild the country with principles and tenacity of purpose
How Do Emerging Multinationals Configure Political Connections Across Institutional Contexts?, Liang Chen, Yi Li, Di Fan
How Do Emerging Multinationals Configure Political Connections Across Institutional Contexts?, Liang Chen, Yi Li, Di Fan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Research Summary: Forming informal ties with political agents is viewed as a viable strategy for multinational enterprises seeking to enter emerging countries. Less is known about the conditions under which political connection is most helpful for firms dealing with cross-border institutional distance. We discuss the distinctive mechanisms through which emerging multinationals may benefit from both home and host political connections. Based on the strategy tripod perspective, we postulate that the importance of different types of connections depends on the overall configurations of a firm's resources and industry characteristics, and these may change with institutional distance. Our analysis of a sample …
Politics And The Price Of Rice In Thailand: Public Choice, Institutional Change And Rural Subsidies, Jacob Ricks
Politics And The Price Of Rice In Thailand: Public Choice, Institutional Change And Rural Subsidies, Jacob Ricks
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Despite the Thai state’s long record of rice market interventions, historically politicians failed to leverage rice subsidies in their pursuit of political support, notwithstanding the large number of farmers in the country. Since Thaksin Shinawatra’s election in 2001, though, each government has subsidised rice producers, although at varying degrees. What explains this change? This article traces the four-decade history of rice price support programmes. It is proposed that these policies be interpreted through the dual lens of institutionalism and public choice theory, demonstrating how political institutions have shaped incentives for politicians to cater to different constituencies. During the pre-1980 period, …
Between Commerce And Empire: David Hume, Colonial Slavery, And Commercial Incivility, Onur Ulas Ince
Between Commerce And Empire: David Hume, Colonial Slavery, And Commercial Incivility, Onur Ulas Ince
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Eighteenth-century Enlightenment thought has recently been reclaimed as arobust, albeit short-lived, cosmopolitan critique of European imperialism. Thisessay complicates this interpretation through a study of David Hume’s reflectionson commerce, empire, and slavery. I argue that while Hume condemned thecolonial system of monopoly, war, and conquest, his strictures against empiredid not extend to colonial slavery in the Atlantic. This was because colonialslavery represented a manifestly uncivilinstitution when judged by enlightened metropolitan sensibilities, yet also adecisively commercial institutionpivotal to the eighteenth-century global economy. Confronted by the paradoxical“commercial incivility” of modern slavery, Hume opted for disavowing the linkbetween slavery and commerce, and confined his …
Universalism And The Value Of Political Power, Yumi Koh
Universalism And The Value Of Political Power, Yumi Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
While legislatures typically use majority rule to allocate a budget in distributive legislation, near-unanimous consent over the broad allocation of benefits is pervasive. I develop a game-theoretic model where players strategically interact in a universal coalition to determine allocations, with non-cooperative bargaining as a threat point for the breakdown of cooperation. To quantify the effects of political power and actual needs on the agreed-upon allocation, I structurally estimate the model using the "Bridge Bill Capital Budget" in 1992. I find that 9.58% of the budget would be allocated differently if allocations were determined only based on actual needs.
Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University
Asean In 2025, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Will ASEAN ever progress beyond being a forum to discuss, and sometimes settle, differences?
Will Politics Trump Economic Growth?, Singapore Management University
Will Politics Trump Economic Growth?, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
While economic uncertainties remain, investors should not worry about the White House jeopardising the U.S. economy
Weak Law V Strong Ties: An Empirical Study Of Business Investment, Law And Political Connections In China, Wei Zhang, Ji Li
Weak Law V Strong Ties: An Empirical Study Of Business Investment, Law And Political Connections In China, Wei Zhang, Ji Li
Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law
Based on a large-scale survey of Chinese entrepreneurs, our study explores how institutions (formal and informal) influence investment decisions made by private companies. The study finds that, consistent with the conventional view, a more effective legal system is correlated with short-term general investment, and that the judiciary is important mainly because of its restraint over the state. The role of effective courts, however, diminishes when private entrepreneurs consider making long-term investment. We find a positive association between the entrepreneurs’ political backgrounds and their R&D investment, suggesting that Chinese courts, in spite of decades of reform, are not yet viewed as …
Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu
Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper explores two political factors for their potential effects on urban land supply in China: corruption, and competition for promotion. We find that standard urban economic predictions hold in the sense that both population and income increases are strongly significant determinants for the increase in urban land supply. Conditional on these demand-side factors, we find that the usage of two-stage auctions (as a proxy for corruption) is highly correlated with the increase in land supply. The corruption effects are strongest for commercial land, followed by residential land and then industrial land. To shed light on the competition motives among …
Jobs For Justice(S): Corruption In The Supreme Court Of India, Madhav S. Aney, Shubhankar Dam, Giovanni Ko
Jobs For Justice(S): Corruption In The Supreme Court Of India, Madhav S. Aney, Shubhankar Dam, Giovanni Ko
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate whether judicial decisions are affected by career concerns of judges byanalysing two questions: Do judges respond to pandering incentives by ruling in favourof the government in the hope of receiving jobs after retiring from the Court? Does thegovernment actually reward judges who ruled in its favour with prestigious jobs? To answerthese questions we construct a dataset of all Supreme Court of India cases involving thegovernment from 1999 till 2014, with an indicator for whether the decision was in its favouror not. We find that pandering incentives have a causal effect on judicial decision-making.The exposure of a judge to …
Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In People's Republic Of China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu
Determinants Of Urban Land Supply In People's Republic Of China: How Do Political Factors Matter?, Wen-Tai Hsu, Xiaolu Li, Yang Tang, Jing Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper explores whether and how corruption and competition-for-promotion motives affect urban land supply in the People's Republic of China. Conditional on demand-side factors, we find that corruption is highly correlated with an increase in land supply. The corruption effects are strongest for commercial land, followed by residential land, and then industrial land. To shed light on the competition motives among prefectural leaders, we examine how the number of years in office affects land supply and distinguish among different hypotheses. Our empirical results show robust rising trends in land sales. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that among prefectural …