Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Locally-Varying Explanations Behind The United Kingdom's Vote To Leave The European Union, Roger Beecham, Aidan Slingsby, Chris Brunsdon

Journal of Spatial Information Science

Explanations behind area-based (Local Authority-level) voting preference in the 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union are explored using aggregate-level data. Developing local models, special attention is paid to whether variables explain the vote equally well across the country. Variables describing the post-industrial and economic "successfulness" of Local Authorities most strongly discriminate variation in the vote. To a lesser extent this is the case for variables linked to "metropolitan" and "big city" contexts, which assist the Remain vote, those that distinguish more traditional and "nativist" values, assisting Leave, and those loosely describing material outcomes, again reinforcing Leave. Whilst variables …