Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Linking Models Of Human Behavior And Climate Alters Projected Climate Change, Brian Beckage, Louis J. Gross, Katherine Lacasse, Eric Carr, Sara S. Metcalf, Jonathan M. Winter, Peter D. Howe, Nina Fefferman, Travis Franck, Asim Zia, Ann Kinzig, Forrest M. Hoffman

Faculty Publications

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioral changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the CROADS climate model to a social model of behavioral change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behavior influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioral uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the …