Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Examining The Aggregate Economic Impacts Of Criminal Record Expungement In Marion County, Indiana, Zane Callison

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This article investigates the individual economic effects of criminal record expungement identified in a previous article as they appear in the aggregate, particularly rates of unemployment and wages. As interest around the effects of overincarceration increases, criminal record expungement offers a possible solution to the economic woes faced by justice-involved individuals. To that end, this article examines unemployment rates and per capita personal income in Marion County, Indiana, where implementation of the state of Indiana’s criminal record expungement statute has been exceptionally effective. After an analysis, we find that criminal record expungement bears only a light or unclear causal relationship …

Capital Flow And Bank Lending Channels In A Small Open Economy: Evidence From Indonesia, Advis Budiman, Solikin M. Juhro, Sugiharso Safuan

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper investigates the implication of macro-financial linkages to explain the interaction of the financial and business cycles as the primary contributor to understanding the fluctuations in the Indonesian economy. It attempts to capture the interaction of the global financial and domestic business cycles through portfolio flow by incorporating investor behavior through a preference for domestic asset classes. Furthermore, due to information asymmetries between lenders and borrowers, we include the monitoring cost to explain the transaction cost in the credit market as a factor that drives macroeconomic fluctuations. Our findings demonstrate how financial imperfections can amplify the impact of global …

Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this study, we explore the IS-LM-BP framework in analysing the effect of digital currencies on macroeconomic performance from a global perspective. We augment the global macroeconomic dataset by Mohaddes and Raissi (2020) with digital currencies, and analyse the relationship between 2010Q1 and 2019Q4. Overall, we find digital currencies to have significantly positive short-run and no long-run impact on global output, inflation rate, interest rate, and equity stock return. Our results suggest that digital currencies have enhanced global macroeconomic performance, on average. Thus, we recommend that appropriate regulations, rather than an outright ban on digital currencies, should be implemented.

Evaluating Macro-Policy Attitudes About Abortion In The United States, Christopher Olds, Miriam Guadalupe Benavides-Ortega, Madison May Albers, Rocio Figueroa-Castro

SACAD: John Heinrichs Scholarly and Creative Activity Days

Prior research on public opinion demonstrates attitudes about major issues often shift/move together. In other words, public support for government involvement in domestic affairs across multiple policy areas can be indicative of the general policy sentiment or public mood at any given point in time. In exploring specific issue areas in isolation, researchers can assess whether change in opinion on an issue area is significantly linked to fluctuations in views about macroeconomic conditions. The current research project will contrast quarterly public support for government involvement in the issue area of abortion through vector autoregression time series techniques examining whether prior …

Estimating The Stability Of Okun's Law, Xinrui (Crystal) Wang, Samuel Schreyer

SACAD: John Heinrichs Scholarly and Creative Activity Days

This study focuses on employing the gap version of Okun's Law, conducting regression analysis between the output gap and the unemployment gap to assess their effectiveness and long-term stability, and also estimates the significant relationship between the output gap and the unemployment gap. This study also compares the output gap dynamics during economic contractions and expansions.

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …

Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.

Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper studies the impact of digitalization on the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) economies. The study is conducted to see whether digitalization is playing its role in enhancing economic growth. We employ a panel dataset consisting of twenty-one years from 2000 to 2020 for 57 OIC countries. We use the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that digitalization positively impacts the economies of OIC countries. As for policy implication, this study recommends governments of OIC member countries to invest in digital infrastructure in order to foster economic growth.

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Exchange Rate Responses And Volatility Spillover Effects During The Covid-19 Pandemic In Indonesia, Panky Tri Febiyansah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper aims to assess the impact of the confirmed COVID-19 cases, the timing of the outbreak, and physical measures on the returns and spillover effects of exchange rate in Indonesia. The model will be tested by the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) process and the spillover volatility index. The study discovers that the confirmed cases, outbreak news, and the implementation of large-scale social restrictions simultaneously contribute to a leverage effect on the volatility of a direct quote of Indonesian Rupiah to Australian Dollar, Euro, US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, and Great British Pound. To a certain extent, the heatwave …

Do Price Controlled Basic Food Items Affect Inflation In Fiji?, Joel Abraham, Akeneta Vonoyauyau, Seema W. Narayan Prof.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This note examines the effects of price-controlled perishable food items on inflation in Fiji. We study year-on-year changes in headline inflation and disaggregate measures of inflation in the form of food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables against three perishable food items used daily by Fijian households, namely, potatoes, onion, and garlic over the period 2019:01-2022:08. We also follow Narayan et al (2023), allowing for the lags and leads framework in examining Fiji’s inflation. Our results show that the leads and lags model explain 22%, 27% and 65% of headline, food and non-alcoholic beverages and vegetables inflation rates, respectively, over the …

Structure Of Indiana’S Manufacturing Sector During And After The Great Recession: A Spatial Perspective, Arun K. Srinivasan, Kathleen G. Arano, Janardhanan A. Alse

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

The trend in manufacturing employment is on a downward trajectory nationally, further exacerbated by short-term fluctuations. Indiana mirrors this trend, and as such, we explore the structure of the manufacturing sector using a spatial and snapshot approach during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Using two measures: (1) average firm size and (2) gap in percent of local manufacturing employment, we explain the dynamics at specific periods, viz., 2007 at the beginning of the Recession, 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession, 2014 at a point in recovery from the Great Recession, and 2016 at the endpoint for …

Explaining The Proliferation Of U.S. Billionaires During The Neoliberal Period, Rob Piper

Class, Race and Corporate Power

This article explains the proliferation of U.S. billionaire wealth during the neoliberal period (1980 to the present). Using the work of scholars, investigative journalists, and government researchers, it examines descriptive evidence from the past forty years of the economic, social, and political trends associated with the capital accumulation that led to so much wealth being concentrated with so few individuals. It further creates a theoretical framework of institutional factors (or “drivers”) that help to understand how these trends link together to provide a comprehensive explanation for the increase of billionaires in comparison with other economic gauges like GDP, income distribution, …

How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper examines the effects of Global Value Chains on economic output and unemployment in ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2018. This study provides estimation using the system GMM and panel causality test to determine the effect of GVC thoroughly. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of global value chains on economic output in ASEAN countries. However, the findings also show that global value chains increase unemployment during the observation period. Heterogenous panel non-causality findings suggest that economic output does not affect the level of participation of GVC, but unemployment affects the level of participation in ten …

Principles Of Macroeconomics (Online), Murat Doral

KSU Distinguished Course Repository

This course is an introduction to the formal study of macroeconomics. Macroeconomics involves the study of the economy as a whole. Topics that are covered include national income determination, the general price level, interest rates, unemployment, and fiscal and monetary policies.

Grameen Method Of Microfinance As A Poverty-Alleviation Tool: Short And Long-Term Effects On Women’S Empowerment In Egypt, Zeina M. Shalaby

The Undergraduate Research Journal

Many people suffer from poverty globally, and economic tools used to combat it have varied from one country to another with some enacting noticeable change. The topic of micro-credit attracted attention after the Grameen Bank’s microfinance method was recognized for decreasing poverty in rural Bangladesh by granting loans to women almost exclusively. This paper explores the application of the Grameen method of microfinance in Egypt by reviewing the specific conditions surrounding women’s poverty in Egypt and the economic and social outcomes of past Grameen microfinance efforts in Egypt. While the Grameen method of microfinance successfully improved well-being indicators and economic …

Striving Toward Bitcoin Price Stability: Second-Layer Money And The Case For Real Bills, Scrip & Notes, Eduardo Blasco, Carlos García De Enterría

Journal of New Finance

Monetary systems comprise various layers of real and financial assets arranged hierarchically. Due to its properties, Bitcoin is a suitable asset to become the base money of a monetary system once its price has stabilized and people see it more like a medium of exchange than an investment. We review Bitcoin’s characteristics and explain their effect on its intra- and inter-temporal liquidity. We argue that Bitcoin will lower its bid-ask spread once users adopt financial assets convertible to Bitcoin. We propose the use of three financial assets working as Bitcoin derivatives to reduce Bitcoin’s demand shocks and lower its volatility: …

Regresi Ambang Untuk Mendalami Pengaruh Nonlinier Kekuatan Pasar Terhadap Pinjaman Bank Di Asean-5, Mahjus Ekananda

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Credit distribution has developed rapidly in the ASEAN region and it is largely dominated by the banking sector compared to other financial institutions. This study explores the effects of various changes to the GDP growth regime, firm size, and monetary policy. The objects of this research are commercial banks in ASEAN-5 from year 2010 to 2019. This study utilises the threshold regression method and a single proxy to measure market power. Results of this study found that monetary policy and market forces affect productive credit. Changes in impact that occur are mostly due to different behavior between banks in response …

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

The Economic Analysis Of Conflicts And Peace In Autocratic And Democratic Regimes In Africa, Oluwole Owoye

Journal of African Conflicts and Peace Studies

This paper uses conceptual economics to explain how conflicts and peacebuilding are linked to economic growth/development in Africa. Both conflicts and peace have contagion effects in many countries worldwide, and in some cases, conflicts have morphed into regional and international problems. Conceptually, the monotonicity of conflicts and peace functions are invariant with respect to autocratic and democratic forms of governance in Africa. One of the main assertions of this study is that whether or not we have stable autocratic and/or democratic forms of governance, protracted conflicts have negative impact on sustainable economic growth in Africa. In addition, we found that …

Energy And Economic Growth Nexus: A Long-Run Relationship In Indonesia, Kelvan Darrian, Patricia Scholastica, Yohanes B. Kadarusman, Dandy Rafitrandi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Energy plays an important role in economic growth in which it affects total factor productivity (TFP). Energy conservation efforts to address global climate change may adversely affect economic growth, particularly in the long run. This study analyses the short- and long-run relationship between energy consumption (both non-renewable (NREC) and renewable (REC)) and economic growth in Indonesia within the period of 1985 to 2019. Using the vector-error correction model (VECM), the paper discovered a short-run unidirectional causality from NREC and REC to economic growth. Economic growth in Indonesia is dependent on energy consumption. The finding proves the growth hypothesis in the …

A Mathematical Approach To The Money Multiplier Analysis On Indonesian 1997–1998 Monetary Crisis, Albertus Prabu Siagian

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In crisis moments, massive liquidity supports, extensive cash withdrawal, and large reserve hoarding can all lead to the change in monetary base, currency ratio, and reserve ratio respectively. In turn, all these disruptions could cause money supply to change. This research aims to find out which factor (among the change in monetary base, currency ratio, and reserve ratio) became the main causal factor of increasing money supply in Indonesia during 1997–1998 crisis. The method follows mathematical equation models used by Friedman & Schwartz (1963) and Stauffer (2006) in analyzing Great Depression in the US. This research has found that the …

Sociodemographic Effects On Financial Inclusion: Implications From Online Transaction In Developing-8 Countries, Dyah Titis Kusuma Wardani, Navi'ah Khusniati, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The world has reached the industry 4.0, where technological developments have been widely applied to electronic payment, with no exception on Muslim countries. This study aims to investigate association between sociodemographic and financial inclusion in country D-8 in the probability of using online financial transactions. Using The Global Findex 2017 from D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation included in OIC countries and the logistic regression, this study explores the effect of sociodemographic namely gender, education, income status and working status on online financial transactions users. Using control variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation and Exchange reta, results show that, …

The Institutional Drivers Contributing To Billionaire Wealth At The Sector Level, Rob Piper

Class, Race and Corporate Power

Over the last 50 years (the period of neoliberalism) the national wealth of the United States reached unprecedented levels. Despite this dramatic increase in national wealth, an increasing amount of American wealth has found its way into the hands of a smaller percentage of the population. Indicative of this inequality, the number of individuals that have achieved a net worth of $1 billion (billionaires) has increased at a higher rate than any other time in American history. Descriptive evidence and analysis of macroeconomics from scholarly literature and journalism attributes this dramatic increase in billionaire wealth to certain comprehensive and interrelated …

Evolving Marketization, Societal Trends, And Indicators In Chile And The Andean Region, Cristian Andres Sepulveda, Clifford J. Shultz, Mark Peterson

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

The effects of marketization on Chile and the broader Andean Region are profound and systemic. Key indicators reveal trends toward economic growth, improved social conditions, and sustainable development. The marketization of the Andean Region, however, is a complex and evolving process. We report on recent developments, which necessitate some reflection on trends and prognoses. In particular, while marketization has led to better education, increased social mobility, and enhanced well-being, one of the most important challenges facing countries in the region is ensuring that the benefits of marketization are shared equitably among all members of society. Priorities include further improvements in …

Human Development And Macroeconomic Shocks In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Risikat O.S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

Journal of Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences

This paper explores how human development responds to selected macroeconomic shocks in Nigeria. The study employed the Sen’s capabilities approach as the analytical approach and posited that the level of education, health status, quality of investment, technology, and government fiscal and monetary policies are plausible determinants of human development. We used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to estimate the responses of such selected shocks, which are inflation, interest rate, government capital expenditure, exchange rate, current account balance, and savings shocks. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and the Impulse Response (IR) showed that a fiscal policy shock is the major …

Household Size And Household Wealth In Indonesia With The Influence Of Spatial Aspects, Thomas Soseco

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Investigating household wealth should also include spatial analysis to capture the influence of location on the households’ net wealth and to avoid underestimation of the effect of the change of variables due to estimation that ignores spatial aspects. This paper examines factors influencing household net wealth in Indonesia with the influence of spatial lag using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993–2014. The article relies on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to analyze the data. Results show that household net wealth in Indonesia is spatially related to each other, and the spillover effect makes the change of …

The Nonlinear Impact Of Payment System Innovation On Financial System Stability In The Asean-4 Countries, Mahjus Ekananda

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The increasing growth of financial system encourages payment system innovation that can affect financial system stability, particularly in ASEAN countries. This study explored a variety of payment system innovation, i.e. debit cards, credit cards, electronic money, and RTGS. The financial system stability index is measured by calculating the composite indexes of non-performing loans, Z-score from ROA and CAR, share price volatility, and yield bonds. The components of the indexes are structured to reflect risks from the banking, stock, and bond markets. The resulting index value indicates the level of risk in the financial system. A higher index specifies a higher …

Economic Growth And Co2 Emission In Asean: Panel-Ardl Approach, Feriansyah Feriansyah, Hari Nugroho, Aura Asyda Larre, Qori’Atul Septiavin, Cintya Khairun Nisa

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions from 1994 to 2018 using a panel approach from eight ASEAN countries. We found an established result using the Panel ARDL Pooled Mean Group method. First, the panel Cointegration analysis shows a significant long-term relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions. Second, the error correction mechanism shows a stable and consistent value. Third, we found that GDP has a significant long-term effect on CO2 emissions in ASEAN countries. Fourth, our results also show that GDP significantly impacts CO2 emissions in the short term for four countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and …