Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Bayesian Approach To Toolmark Analysis, Antonio W. Del Valle

Student Theses

Statistical analysis of toolmarks using frequentist methods can be problematic for assorted reasons. Thus, in order to analyze toolmarks whilst avoiding these issues, a Bayesian approach is taken. Specifically for this thesis we discuss the computation of a specific Likelihood Ratio for toolmark comparisons. This Bayesian based approach involves using data already at hand in conjunction with a probability model in order to establish an estimate for its “value”, i.e. the “weight of evidence”. Making the calculations to obtain a Likelihood Ratio is very cumbersome and time consuming. Also many commercial software packages hide the process and underlying assumptions that …