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Stability And Instability In Third World Security Complexes: The Role Of Arms Transfers, David Todd Kinsella
Stability And Instability In Third World Security Complexes: The Role Of Arms Transfers, David Todd Kinsella
Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
Controversy surrounds the alleged effects of foreign arms transfers on belligerency: do they precipitate international conflict, as some critics suggest, or do they promote stability by reinforcing deterrence, as others maintain? This paper examines the connection between arms transfers to the Third World and the occurrence of interstate conflict, including militarized disputes, from the end of World War II until the early 1990s. My analysis indicates that, in the aggregate, arms transfers almost uniformly contributed to subsequent instability within security complexes located in various regions of the Third World, but that the effects of American versus Russian arms supplies often …
Arms Transfers, Dependence, And Regional Stability: Isolated Effects Or General Patterns?, David Todd Kinsella
Arms Transfers, Dependence, And Regional Stability: Isolated Effects Or General Patterns?, David Todd Kinsella
Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
There are two parts to this paper. The first part examines the impact of arms transfers on the conflictual behavior of third world recipients. I conceptualize conflict as a multiplicative function of total arms imports and the extent to which the recipient is dependent on relatively few arms suppliers. My hypothesis that arms imports encouraged belligerence but that arms-transfer dependence diminished this effect is not widely supported by my time series analyses: only twelve of 86 countries analyzed exhibit this dual pattern. The second part of the paper examines the impact of arms transfers on the aggregate level of military …