Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Recognizing 'Game Changers' In Extrapolation Models: An Application To Counterinsurgency, Micah Dolcort-Silver

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Recent empirical studies suggest insurgencies may be accurately described by aggregated extrapolation models, such that past behavior becomes the best predictor for future action. I argue that aggregated extrapolation models possess two flaws that make it a poor choice for examining insurgencies. First, aggregated extrapolation models ask the wrong question. The more interesting question is to ask when present action is no longer explainable by past behavior. Secondly, aggregate models mask changes that a phenomenon undergoes over time which are only revealed upon disaggregating the data. Starting with a model and findings provided by Neil Johnson, I use casualty data …

Terrorism Conflict: How The United States Responds To Al Qaeda Violence And Expressed Grievances, Richard Craig Rosthauser

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study analyzes how the United States responds to Al Qaeda's messages and expressions of grievances and how America's responses escalate the conflict between the United States and Al Qaeda.

After its first two attacks against America, Al Qaeda devised a strategy to draw America into a guerrilla war in Afghanistan, stating its intentions in its "Declaration of War" in 1996. Before this declaration, Al Qaeda worked from the shadows and denied reports it was either funding terrorism or participating in terrorism. Bin Laden continued his denials but took responsibility for some terrorist acts in his messages. President Clinton did …

Fostering Global Security: Nonviolent Resistance And Us Foreign Policy, Amentahru Wahlrab

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation comprehensively evaluates, for the first time, nonviolence and its relationship to International Relations (IR) theory and US foreign policy along the categories of principled, strategic, and regulative nonviolence. The current debate within nonviolence studies is between principled and strategic nonviolence as relevant categories for theorizing nonviolent resistance. Principled nonviolence, while retaining the primacy of ethics, is often not practical. Indeed, most nonviolent movements have not been principled, or solely principled. Strategic nonviolence is attractive because it does not require any individual or group to believe in a particular faith or ethical tradition. However, strategic nonviolence is problematic as …