Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Between The Bear And The Dragon: Multivectorism In Kazakhstan As A Model Strategy For Secondary Powers, Rachel Vanderhill, Sandra F. Joireman, Roza Tulepbayeva

Political Science Faculty Publications

Kazakhstan has followed a foreign policy of multivector diplomacy since its independence from the former Soviet Union. While multivectorism was a strategy of necessity in its early years, it has evolved to empower Kazakhstan to effectively protect its independence and negotiate its relationship with the great powers on its borders and further afield. After the 2014 Russian seizure of Crimea it is noteworthy that Kazakhstan has maintained positive relations with Russia while asserting its sovereignty and independent foreign policy. In this article we investigate how Kazakhstan has negotiated the rise of China, taking advantage of the economic opportunities it presents. …

External Conditionalities And Institutional Change: Constructing Constituencies For The Rule Of Law In Kosovo, Sandra F. Joireman

Political Science Faculty Publications

Kosovo is one of several Western Balkans countries that are part of the next round of accession to the EU. Like Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia, it is also a country in which the history of conflict is recent and the benefits of EU membership ought to be a strong economic and political enticement to meet the standards necessary for membership. Yet, instead of major transformation of the post-conflict society towards democratization, economic development and a robust human rights regime, the prospect of European Union membership appears to be leading to superficial legal changes without enforcement. This article investigates the tensions …

Yemen Between Revolution And Counter-Terrorism, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

This chapter juxtaposes these seemingly two quite different storylines - one about Yemeni aspirations for social justice and better governance and the other about American and Saudi operations undertaken in the name of combating terrorism. The so-called GCC Initiative, and in particular the National Dialogue Conference process playing out as this book goes to press, provides the link between them. From the perspective of domestic politics, the Dialogue can be read as the outcome of agitation by the new generation of 'peaceful youth', as well as an outgrowth of Yemen's tradition of dialogue - an historic effort to resolve crisis …

Yemen, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

In February 2011, Tawakkol Karman stood on a stage outside Sanaa University. A microphone in one hand and the other clenched defiantly above her head, reading from a list of demands, she led tens of thousands of cheering, flag-waving demonstrators in calls for peaceful political change. She was to become not so much the leader as the figurehead of Yemen's uprising. On other days and in other cities, other citizens led the chants: men and women and sometimes, for effect, little children. These mass public performances enacted a veritable civic revolution in a poverty-stricken country where previous activist surges never …

Sell Unipolarity? The Future Of An Overvalued Concept, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

For at least the past thirty years, scholarship on international relations has been bewitched by a simple proposition: the polarity of the international system is a central cause of great power strategies and politics. The number of "poles" (dominant countries) in the system is like an invisible fence that shapes states as if they were dogs with electronic collars or a Skinner box that conditions national "rats." States can choose to ignore the fence or box, but if they do, they must pay the consequences. The polarity of the international system as defined by the number of great powers - …

Conclusion: Strategy In A Murky World, Melvyn P. Leffler, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

Making national strategy is a byzantine business in the best of times. When dramatic events happen, when the international arena is complex and changing, when threats and opportunities are uncertain, leaders struggle to understand and react effectively. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks of 9/11 opened vistas that were unfamiliar and complicated. How did U.S. leaders manage those transitions?

Introduction: Navigating The Unknown, Melvyn P. Leffler, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall came down. Hardly anyone had foreseen this event. When President Ronald Reagan had challenged Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in June 1987 “to tear down this wall,” he never anticipated that Berliners themselves would have the opportunity and courage to bring about such dramatic change. We now know that the Wall came down as a result of accidental circumstances, a series of mistaken statements and understandings among officials of the German Democratic Republic. No one had planned for this to happen, and no one had plans to deal with a new landscape that might …

U.S. Standing In The World: Causes, Consequences, And The Future, Jeffrey W. Legro, Peter J. Katzenstein

Political Science Faculty Publications

America’s global standing has become a central concern of U.S. leaders and citizens. U.S. leaders, regardless of party, pledge to “restore U.S. standing” as a central goal of America’s foreign policy agenda. Standing has been the subject of widespread public discussion and intellectual debate.

Yet despite all this attention, three issues fundamental to standing have been relatively ignored:

-What is standing and how has it varied?
-What causes standing to rise and fall?
-What impact does standing have on U.S. foreign policy?

This task force answers these questions by synthesizing what we now know about U.S. standing and/or identifying what …

The Ties That Bind The United States: A Recount (Book Review), Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

Review of the book, World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy by Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlworth. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008.

Response To Book Review (To Lead The World: American Strategy After The Bush Doctrine, Melvyn P. Leffler, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

Response to Book Review (To Lead the World: American Strategy after the Bush Doctrine)

We want to thank the commentators for their thoughtful and constructive remarks on our book. We think they highlight some of the key attributes of the volume and raise key issues for further reflection.

In order for readers of H-Diplo to understand the comments, we want to reiterate here what we stated in the introduction to the book. We tried to bring together some of the nation’s most renowned scholars and public intellectuals from all sides of the political spectrum to focus on what …

Purpose Transitions: China And The American Response, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

We know that China is rising, but what will China do with that power? Distracted by power trends, both American policymakers and political scientists have not paid enough attention to purpose--what states intend to do with their power. Power is critical in international relations, but it is not destiny. The dominant lens for understanding the rise of China has been power transition theory, which insightfully probes the effects of power trajectories between rising and falling countries (e.g., the expected future of China and the United States). Yet what we also need to understand is "purpose transition"--that is, when and …

Introduction, Melvyn P. Leffler, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

For many Americans, the past decade has been a bewildering era. They have seen their country attacked and their husbands, sons, wives, and daughters sent to war in faraway places. They have read about orange alerts and red alerts. They have waited on long lines at airport security checks. They know that defense expenditures have soared and that Homeland Security has mushroomed. They have seen gruesome daily headlines about the carnage in Iraq, the strife in Afghanistan, and the turmoil in Pakistan. They read about the suicide attacks that were prevented or aborted in Europe, and they know, darkly, that …

Dilemmas Of Strategy, Melvyn P. Leffler, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

America’s crystal ball on strategy is murky. Officials in the next administration will face a complex world, will receive conflicting advice, and will need to mobilize domestic support for their policies. They must nonetheless act, most likely without the convenience of a single threat such as the Soviet Union during the cold war or terrorism in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. In this conclusion, our aims are to highlight the decisive issues of consensus and contention that resonate across the chapters. We seek to delineate the trade-offs involved in making choices, and we hope to illuminate the national …

Bilateralism, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

Bilateralism concerns relations or policies of joint action between two parties. It can be contrasted with unilateralism (where one party acts on its own) and multilateralism (where three or more parties are involved). Typically, the term has applications concerning political, economic, and security matters between two states. Bilateralism has both costs and benefits, and there is a debate on its merits relative to unilateral or multilateral approaches.

Unraveling North Korea’S Preferences And Managing Its Nuclear Threat, Monti Narayan Datta

Political Science Faculty Publications

Chief among US national security concerns is the North Korean nuclear threat. Led by its reclusive, enigmatic leader, Kim Jong Il, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) is one of the last bastions of communism, representing a strategic and ideological challenge for the United States in the post-9/11 era. So great is the perceived threat of the DPRK, that in his 2002 State of the Union address, President Bush proclaimed, “States like these, and their terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to threaten the peace of the world. By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose …

Hiv/Aids In Africa, Sandra F. Joireman

Political Science Faculty Publications

The response of the United States to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa is an example of the redefined nature of security threats that characterizes the post-September 11 period. Even the most ardent realists now accept that serious threats exist to US security apart from those brewing in organized states. Scholars and governments have been forced to adopt a greater sensitivity to the issues that underlie international violence and terrorism, such as a lack of political freedom, state failure, poverty, and HIV/AIDS, the topic addressed in this chapter as an indirect threat to US security interests in Africa.¹

Euro-Med: European Ambitions In The Mediterranean, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

The European Union is carving out a sphere of potentially vast influence in the Euro-Mediterranean basin, while also cultivating special relationship further south in the Arabian Peninsula. European ambitions do not directly challenge US security policy in the Middle East. Rather, they parallel US interests in the Caribbean Basin and Latin America: for a large regional free trade zone open to imports and foreign investment.

Ngos, Ingos, Go-Ngos And Do-Ngos: Making Sense Of Non-Governmental Organizations, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

This issue of Middle East Report takes a critical look at "NGOs"--non-governmental organizations--in and beyond the Arab world. The topic is both trendy and controversial. Although they may see themselves as marginal actors, charities, advocacy groups and a range of other civic associations in the Middle East have also become agents of political, economic and social change, influencing the allocation of scarce resources in their own societies and the images national regimes project abroad. In recent years, NGOs have been depicted as saviors of failed economies in some circles while reviled as stooges of Western imperialism in others.

Ethiopia And Eritrea: Border War, Sandra F. Joireman

Political Science Faculty Publications

The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea—two of the poorest countries in the world—began in 1998. Eritrea was once part of the Ethiopian empire, but it was colonized by Italy from 1869 to 1941. Following Italy's defeat in World War II, the United Nations determined that Eritrea would become part of Ethiopia, though Eritrea would maintain a great deal of autonomy. In 1961 Ethiopia removed Eritrea's independence, and Eritrea became just another Ethiopian province. In 1991 following a revolution in Ethiopia, Eritrea gained its independence. However, the borders between Ethiopia and Eritrea had never been clearly marked. Following arguments and skirmishes, …

Is Anybody Still A Realist?, Jeffrey W. Legro, Andrew Moravcsik

Political Science Faculty Publications

Realism, the oldest and most prominent theoretical paradigm in international relations, is in trouble. The problem is not lack of interest. Realism remains the primary or alternative theory in virtually every major book and article addressing general theories of world politics, particularly in security affairs. Controversies between neorealism and its critics continue to dominate international relations theory debates. Nor is the problem realism’s purported inability to make point predictions. Many specific realist theories are testable, and there remains much global conflict about which realism offers powerful insights. Nor is the problem the lack of empirical support for simple realist predictions, …

Mission: Democracy, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

Incumbent national leaders invite foreign election monitors only when it is in their interest to do so. Rarely is significant financial assistance "conditional" on holding elections, although it does improve a regime's image abroad to do so. For governments being observed, the trick is to orchestrate the process enough to win, but not enough to arouse observers' suspicions.

Military Culture And Inadvertent Escalation In World War Ii, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

How can the use of "unthinkable" means of warfare be avoided? How can states successfully observe mutually desired limitations on "taboo" forms of combat? These questions are important because of concern that nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and terrorism will spread and be used. The growing number of states--e.g., Israel, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Ukraine--that have such means of inflicting harm increases the likelihood that any future conflict will involve a desire for restrictions. Countries may pursue restraint because popular opinion vilifies certain weapons; because leaders calculate that escalation would damage their domestic and international political support; or because states …

Yemen: Human Rights In Yemen During And After The 1994 War, Sheila Carapico, Jermera Rone

Political Science Faculty Publications

During seventy days of conventional warfare between the government forces commanded by the Republic of Yemen Council President, General ’Ali ’Abdallah Salih, and the separatist southern army fighting in the name of the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), the government army won a military victory over the rebels and presided over the destruction of institutions and property of the former YSP-ruled People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. The terms of national unity between the two Yemens, never fully resolved in either the May 1990 accord or elections in April 1993, were thus settled on the battlefield in favor of Salih’s northern-dominated military …

Elections And Mass Politics In Yemen, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

Yemen's experiment in popular parliamentary elections has shaken things up in the Arabian Peninsula, the last place on earth that the United States wants to see democracy flourish. But internal political differences, profound economic crisis and Saudi hostility puts this achievement at risk.

The Economic Dimension Of Yemeni Unity, Sheila Carapico

Political Science Faculty Publications

In North and South Yemen, disparities in patterns of private and public ownership were far more subtle than the designations "capitalist" and "socialist" suggest. In contrast with Germany, their marriage was more a merger than a takeover.

A Tale Of Two Families: Change In North Yemen 1977-1989, Sheila Carapico, Cynthia Myntti

Political Science Faculty Publications

Virtually every aspect of life in North Yemen has changed dramatically since 1977, including those aspects of Yemeni society which represent continuity with the past: tribalism, rural life, and use of qat.¹ The driving force for change has been economic. By 1975, Yemen was caught up in the dramatic developments that affected all Arab countries. Rising international oil prices generated enormous surpluses in the producing countries, enabling them to initiate ambitious development plans and forcing them to import workers.

The Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) was in a good position to provide those workers. In the late 1970s, one …

Trip Report: Admiral Crowe's Visit To The Soviet Union, March 17-25, 1990, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

I recently accompanied Admiral William Crowe, retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during his 9-day stay in the USSR. The trip was an extension of the U.S.-USSR military-to-military exchanges that were initiated under Crowe's leadership at the JCS. The purposes of the trip were to reciprocate Marshal Sergei Akhromeyev's visit to the United States and to testify to the Supreme Soviet's Committee on Defense and State Security. In addition to the Admiral, the delegation included his wife, his longtime aide, Captain Jay Coupe, Steve Sestanovich of CSIS, Kurt Campbell of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Harvard's JFK …

The Military Meaning Of The New Soviet Doctrine, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

The current ferment in Soviet military doctrine has led to uncertainty and debate over its implications. On one hand, Gorbachev's peaceful rhetoric, backed by force reductions, is competing with the Bolshoi's ballerinas for favorable Western press reviews. Public opinion-and many public officials-perceive a reduced military threat from the Soviet army. On the other hand, skeptics believe that recent doctrinal changes are compatible with a modernized, more efficient Soviet military machine. In their view, the Soviet army is definitely changing, but the threat will not. A review of the operational implications of the new Soviet security themes indicates that neither the …

Soviet Crisis Decision‐Making And The Gorbachev Reforms, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

The Soviet Union led by President Mikhail Gorbachev has widely heralded the adoption of a new military doctrine which posits war prevention as its fundamental goal. Yet, as Akhromeyev acknowledges in the above quote, a reliable defence, or preparation for war, is also essential. What is not acknowledged, let alone resolved, is that the two desired goals - prevention and preparation - may come into sharp conflict, especially in a super-power crisis. Prevention of war may make it necessary to defer actions which ready forces for battle or reduce their vulnerability. If war appears likely, however, pressures will arise to …

Constraining Ground Force Exercises Of Nato And The Warsaw Pact, Robert D. Blackwill, Jeffrey W. Legro

Political Science Faculty Publications

Confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) have long been the neglected stepchild of serious arms control analysis. Some view CSBMs as "arms control junk food," frivolous, unworkable, or even detrimental. Others are so enamored of the concept that they expect proposals to be accepted as prima facie desirable. After all, the very term "confidence and security" connotes stability and peace. The problem with both positions is often the dearth of hard analysis in support of the ideas put forward and the abstract nature of the discussions of "security building." As witnessed in the contrast between the quiet success of the …