Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Determining The Optimal Spatial And Temporal Thresholds That Maximize The Predictive Accuracy Of The Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistic (Pstss) Hotspot Method, Monsuru Adepeju, Andrew Evans

Journal of Spatial Information Science

The spatial and temporal thresholds (K and T) are two key parameters that control the performance of the prospective space-time scan statistical (PSTSS) hotspot method. This study proposes an objective function approach, in which the optimal values of K and T that maximize the mean hit rate (a measure of predictive accuracy), are determined. The proposed approach involves sweeping through a range of values defined for each parameter and monitors their impacts on the mean hit rate. A case study of the crime data sets of the South Chicago area is presented in which 100 one-day consecutive predictions are carried …