Social and Behavioral Sciences | Open Access Articles

A Century Of Drought In HawaiʻI: Geospatial Analysis And Synthesis Across Hydrological, Ecological, And Socioeconomic Scales, Abby G. Frazier, Christian P. Giardina, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Laura Brewington, Yi Leng Chen, Pao Shin Chu, Lucas Berio Fortini, Danielle Hall, David A. Helweg, Victoria W. Keener, Ryan J. Longman, Matthew P. Lucas, Alan Mair, Delwyn S. Oki, Julian J. Reyes, Stephanie G. Yelenik, Clay Trauernicht

Geography

Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of drought characteristics using a newly developed 100-year (1920–2019) gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dataset. The synthesis examines past droughts classified into five categories: Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Results show that drought duration and magnitude have increased significantly, consistent …

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Optimizing Automated Kriging To Improve Spatial Interpolation Of Monthly Rainfall Over Complex Terrain, Matthew P. Lucas, Ryan J. Longman, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Abby G. Frazier, Jared Mclean, Sean B. Cleveland, Yu Fen Huang, Jonghyun Lee

Geography

Gridded monthly rainfall estimates can be used for a number of research applications, including hydrologic modeling and weather forecasting. Automated interpolation algorithms, such as the "autoKrige" function in R, can produce gridded rainfall estimates that validate well but produce unrealistic spatial patterns. In this work, an optimized geostatistical kriging approach is used to interpolate relative rainfall anomalies, which are then combined with long-term means to develop the gridded estimates. The optimization consists of the following: 1) determining the most appropriate offset (constant) to use when log-transforming data; 2) eliminating poor quality data prior to interpolation; 3) detecting erroneous maps using …

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High Resolution, Annual Maps Of Field Boundaries For Smallholder-Dominated Croplands At National Scales, Lyndon D. Estes, Su Ye, Lei Song, Boka Luo, J. Ronald Eastman, Zhenhua Meng, Qi Zhang, Dennis Mcritchie, Stephanie R. Debats, Justus Muhando, Angeline H. Amukoa, Brian W. Kaloo, Jackson Makuru, Ben K. Mbatia, Isaac M. Muasa, Julius Mucha, Adelide M. Mugami, Judith M. Mugami, Francis W. Muinde, Fredrick M. Mwawaza, Jeff Ochieng, Charles J. Oduol, Purent Oduor, Thuo Wanjiku, Joseph G. Wanyoike, Ryan B. Avery, Kelly K. Caylor

Geography

Mapping the characteristics of Africa’s smallholder-dominated croplands, including the sizes and numbers of fields, can provide critical insights into food security and a range of other socioeconomic and environmental concerns. However, accurately mapping these systems is difficult because there is 1) a spatial and temporal mismatch between satellite sensors and smallholder fields, and 2) a lack of high-quality labels needed to train and assess machine learning classifiers. We developed an approach designed to address these two problems, and used it to map Ghana’s croplands. To overcome the spatio-temporal mismatch, we converted daily, high resolution imagery into two cloud-free composites (the …

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Chinese Neoglobalization In East Africa: Logics, Couplings And Impacts, Pádraig R. Carmody, James T. Murphy

Geography

The most significant case of transnational state capitalism today is China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which seeks to expand/extend the country's geoeconomic and geopolitical integrations globally. We conceptualise the BRI as manifest principally through industrial offshoring, infrastructure investments and exports from China. These vectors articulate with particular places, forming transnational couplings that shape development outcomes. We examine the BRI's couplings and their development implications in the East African countries of Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya where China has engaged significantly. We demonstrate the contingent manner of BRI's variegations; its pragmatism, flexibility, and limitations as a hegemonic or developmental project.

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Emerging Hot Spot Analysis To Indicate Forest Conservation Priorities And Efficacy On Regional To Continental Scales: A Study Of Forest Change In Selva Maya 2000-2020, Nicholas Cuba, Laura A. Sauls, Anthony J. Bebbington, Denise Humphreys Bebbington, Avecita Chicchon, Pilar Delpino Marimón, Oscar Diaz, Susanna Hecht, Susan Kandel, Tracey Osborne, Rebecca Ray, Madelyn Rivera, John Rogan, Viviana Zalles

Geography

Despite the importance of preserving contiguous tropical forest areas to maintain biodiversity and terrestrial carbon stocks, methodological challenges continue to hinder broad-scale analysis of threats to these forests. Emerging Hot Spot Analysis (EHSA) is a spatial-statistical method that conveys complex information about the temporal dynamics of deforestation across a range of moderate to coarse spatial scales. Using Global Forest Change (GFC) data as inputs, EHSA produces spatially comprehensive, gridded outputs that represent a standardized, reproduceable way to instantiate contiguous forest tracts as spatial objects. Doing so allows aggregation of other GFC-derived values and analysis of alternative geographic configurations besides sub-national …

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Ten Facts About Land Systems For Sustainability, Patrick Meyfroidt, Ariane De Bremond, Casey M. Ryan, Emma Archer, Richard Aspinall, Abha Chhabra, Gilberto Camara, Rinku Roy Chowdhury, Esteve Corbera, Ruth Defries, Sandra Díaz, Jinwei Dong, Erle C. Ellis, Karl Heinz Erb, Janet A. Fisher, Rachael D. Garrett, Nancy E. Golubiewski, H. Ricardo Grau, J. Morgan Grove, Helmut Haberl, Andreas Heinimann, Patrick Hostert, Esteban G. Jobbágy, Suzi Kerr, Tobias Kuemmerle, Eric F. Lambin, Sandra Lavorel, Sharachandra Lele, Ole Mertz, Peter Messerli, Graciela Metternicht, Darla K. Munroe, Harini Nagendra

Geography

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence …

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What Makes Wildfires Destructive In California?, Alexandra D. Syphard, Jon E. Keeley, Mike Gough, Mitchell Lazarz, John Rogan

Geography

As human impacts from wildfires mount, there is a pressing need to understand why structures are lost in destructive fires. Despite growing research on factors contributing to structure loss, fewer studies have focused on why some fires are destructive and others are not. We characterized overall differences between fires that resulted in structure loss (“destructive fires”) and those that did not (“non-destructive wildfires”) across three California regions. Then, we performed statistical analyses on large fires only (≥100 ha) to distinguish the primary differences between large destructive large fires and large non-destructive fires. Overall, destructive fires were at least an order …

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Linking Tree Cover Change To Historical Management Practices In Urban Parks, Sabine Nix, Lara A. Roman, Marc Healy, John Rogan, Hamil Pearsall

Geography

Context: Urban tree canopy (UTC) in parks is shaped by complex interactions between social and ecological processes over decades. To understand UTC change in parks, it is critical to identify and characterize the unique set of social processes that drive long-term change. Objectives: We sought to uncover the feedbacks between social processes and long-term UTC changes in parks of a post-industrial city that experienced substantial population loss and park disinvestment. Methods: Our mixed-methods approach involved quantifying spatiotemporal UTC changes and connecting those changes to historical management practices for three parks in Philadelphia, PA (US). We delineated UTC using aerial imagery …

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Applying Landscape Fragmentation Analysis To Icescape Environments: Potential Impacts For The Pacific Walrus (Odobenus Rosmarus Divergens), Anthony Himmelberger, K E. Frey, Florencia Sangermano

Geography

Sea-ice cover across the Arctic has declined rapidly over the past several decades owing to amplified climate warming. The Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) relies on sea-ice floes in the St. Lawrence Island (SLI) and Wainwright regions of the Bering and Chukchi seas surrounding Alaska as a platform for rest, feeding and reproduction. Lower concentrations of thick ice floes are generally associated with earlier seasonal fragmentation and shorter annual persistence of sea-ice cover, potentially affecting the life history of the Pacific walrus. In this study, 24 Landsat satellite images were classified into thick ice, thin ice or open water to …

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Probabilistic Tracking Of Annual Cropland Changes Over Large, Complex Agricultural Landscapes Using Google Earth Engine, Sitian Xiong, Priscilla Baltezar, Morgan A. Crowley, Michael Cecil, Stefano C. Crema, Eli Baldwin, Jeffrey A. Cardille, Lyndon Estes

Geography

Cropland expansion is expected to increase across sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the next thirty years to meet growing food needs across the continent. These land transformations will have cascading social and ecological impacts that can be monitored using novel Earth observation techniques that produce datasets complementary to national cropland surveys. In this study, we present a flexible Bayesian data synthesis workflow on Google Earth Engine (GEE) that can be used to fuse optical and synthetic aperture radar data and demonstrate its ability to track agricultural change at national scales. We adapted the previously developed Bayesian Updating of Land Cover …

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A Modified Vegetation Photosynthesis And Respiration Model (Vprm) For The Eastern Usa And Canada, Evaluated With Comparison To Atmospheric Observations And Other Biospheric Models, Sharon M. Gourdji, Anna Karion, Israel Lopez-Coto, Subhomoy Ghosh, Kimberly L. Mueller, Yu Zhou, Christopher A. Williams, Ian T. Baker, Katharine D. Haynes, James R. Whetstone

Geography

Atmospheric CO2 measurements from a dense surface network can help to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) with two key benefits. First, gridded CO2 flux estimates can be evaluated over regional scales, not possible using flux tower observations at discrete locations for model evaluation. Second, TBM ability to explain atmospheric CO2 fluctuations due to the biosphere can be directly tested, an important objective for anthropogenic emissions monitoring using atmospheric observations. Here, we customize the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) for an eastern North American domain with strong biological activity upwind of urban areas. Parameters …

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Albedo Changes Caused By Future Urbanization Contribute To Global Warming, Zutao Ouyang, Pietro Sciusco, Tong Jiao, Sarah Feron, Cheyenne Lei, Fei Li, Ranjeet John, Peilei Fan, Xia Li, Christopher A. Williams, Guangzhao Chen, Chenghao Wang, Jiquan Chen

Geography

The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 …

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New Political Ecologies Of Renewable Energy, Sarah Knuth, Ingrid Behrsin, Anthony Levenda, James Mccarthy

Geography

The critique of fossil fuel regimes has been a foundational concern for the field of political ecology, in its drives to expose the injustices and harms of energy extractivism and its early warnings of the climate crisis. However, it is increasingly evident that renewable energy sources and their infrastructures will carry their own costs and trade-offs, and that critique, resistance and alternative movement-building are needed to forge a truly just renewable energy transition. This theme issue underlines the many ways in which political ecology is well-positioned to lead critical and engaged scholarship in support of energy/climate justice. In this introduction …

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A Process-Model Perspective On Recent Changes In The Carbon Cycle Of North America, Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo, Benjamin Poulter, Rodrigo Vargas, Daniel Hayes, Anna M. Michalak, Christopher A. Williams, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Jonathan A. Wang, Kimberly P. Wickland, David Butman, Hanqin Tian, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Mike O’Sullivan, Peter Briggs, Vivek Arora, Danica Lombardozzi, Atul K. Jain, Wenping Yuan, Roland Séférian, Julia Nabel, Andy Wiltshire, Almut Arneth, Sebastian Lienert, Sönke Zaehle, Vladislav Bastrikov, Daniel Goll, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Etsushi Kato, Xu Yue, Zhen Zhang

Geography

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year−1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year−1 in each …

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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Geography

Optimizing Automated Kriging To Improve Spatial Interpolation Of Monthly Rainfall Over Complex Terrain, Matthew P. Lucas, Ryan J. Longman, Thomas W. Giambelluca, Abby G. Frazier, Jared Mclean, Sean B. Cleveland, Yu Fen Huang, Jonghyun Lee

Geography

Geography

Chinese Neoglobalization In East Africa: Logics, Couplings And Impacts, Pádraig R. Carmody, James T. Murphy

Geography

Geography

Geography

What Makes Wildfires Destructive In California?, Alexandra D. Syphard, Jon E. Keeley, Mike Gough, Mitchell Lazarz, John Rogan

Geography

Linking Tree Cover Change To Historical Management Practices In Urban Parks, Sabine Nix, Lara A. Roman, Marc Healy, John Rogan, Hamil Pearsall

Geography

Applying Landscape Fragmentation Analysis To Icescape Environments: Potential Impacts For The Pacific Walrus (Odobenus Rosmarus Divergens), Anthony Himmelberger, K E. Frey, Florencia Sangermano

Geography

Probabilistic Tracking Of Annual Cropland Changes Over Large, Complex Agricultural Landscapes Using Google Earth Engine, Sitian Xiong, Priscilla Baltezar, Morgan A. Crowley, Michael Cecil, Stefano C. Crema, Eli Baldwin, Jeffrey A. Cardille, Lyndon Estes

Geography

Geography

Albedo Changes Caused By Future Urbanization Contribute To Global Warming, Zutao Ouyang, Pietro Sciusco, Tong Jiao, Sarah Feron, Cheyenne Lei, Fei Li, Ranjeet John, Peilei Fan, Xia Li, Christopher A. Williams, Guangzhao Chen, Chenghao Wang, Jiquan Chen

Geography

New Political Ecologies Of Renewable Energy, Sarah Knuth, Ingrid Behrsin, Anthony Levenda, James Mccarthy

Geography

Geography