Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

More Than The Sum Of Its Parts: How Disturbance Interactions Shape Forest Dynamics Under Climate Change, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Brian R. Sturtevant, Eric J. Gustafson, Alec M. Kretchun, Jane R. Foster

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Interactions among disturbances are seldom quantified, and how they will be affected by climate change is even more uncertain. In this study, we sought to better understand how interactions among disturbances shift under climate change by applying a process-based landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II) to project disturbance regimes under climate change in north-central Minnesota, USA. Specifically, we (1) contrasted mortality rates and the extent of disturbance for four individual (single) disturbance regimes (fire, insects, wind, or forest management) vs. all four disturbance regimes operating simultaneously (concurrent) under multiple climate change scenarios and (2) determined how climate change interacts with …