Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

AI artificial intelligence brings about new quantitative techniques to assess the state of an economy. Here, we describe a new measure for systemic risk: the Financial Risk Meter (FRM). This measure is based on the penalization parameter (λ" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 18px; text-indent: 0px; text-align: left; text-transform: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">λλ) of a linear quantile lasso regression. The FRM is calculated by taking the average …

The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The global ETF industry provides more complicated investment vehicles than low-cost index trackers. Instead, we find that the real investments of ETFs may deviate from their benchmarks to leverage informational advantages (which leads to a surprising stock-selection ability) and to help affiliated OEFs through cross-trading. These effects are more prevalent in ETFs domiciled in Europe. Moreover, ETF flows seem to respond to additional risk. These results have important normative implications for consumer protection and financial stability. (JEL G20)

Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We use a large housing transaction data set in Singapore to study whether real estate agents use information advantages to buy houses at bargain prices. Agents bought their own houses at prices that are 2.54% lower than comparable houses bought by other buyers. Consistent with information asymmetries, agent buyers have more information advantages in less informative environments, and agent buyers are more likely to buy houses from agent sellers. Agent discounts are from both “cherry picking” and bargaining power, and bargaining power contributes more to the agent discounts. Agents’ advantage consists in their information of available houses and previous purchase …

Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.

Irrational Exuberance: Panic Rooms And Flutters In Financial Markets, Vijay Fafat

Asian Management Insights

As the memory of the 2008 financial crash fades, there are cautionary thoughts on why we tend to overshoot in our optimism, and why even genius comes to grief in the face of capricious, mercurial capital markets.

The Role Of Social Trust In Times Of Crisis, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Research shows social trust improves the resilience of firms to banking crises

Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyse empirically the drivers of freight market volatility. We use several macroeconomic and shipping-related factors that are known to affect the supply and demand for shipping and examine their impact on the term structure of freight options implied volatilities (IV). We find that the level of IVs is affected by the level of the spot rate, the slope of the forward curve, as well as by both demand and supply factors, especially the former. We demonstrate that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is non-monotonic and convex, that is, it …

Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Plenty of adults are not financially literate. Teaching children early can make a big difference

The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).

Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.

Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecastfinancial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive modelpreviously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric inthe sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified.The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed.Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finitesamples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against anumber of standard models, using data on S&P 500 …

Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using option market data we derive naturally forward-looking, non-parametric and model-free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option-implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option-implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …

Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.

Forecasting In Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets, Michael Kostmann, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of …

Institutional Management And Institutional Trading, Jingi Ha

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three papers in mutual fund governance or market microstructure that analyze the causal effect of board independence on mutual fund performance or the trading behavior of institutional trading and informed trading.

Chapter I studies how board independence affects fund performance, in relation to investment experience of independent directors. Using the SEC amendment in 2001 as an exogenous shock, I find that board independence does not improve or damage fund performance on average. When a fund board has independent directors with investment experience, however, it boosts fund performance. I also find that a fund manager is less …

Marginal Cost Of Risk-Based Capital And Risk-Taking, Tao Chen, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the impact of capital adequacy requirements on financial institutions' risk-taking behavior from a novel perspective. Specifically, we show that an important feature of the risk-based capital (RBC) system a built-in diversification benefit in aggregating risk categories induces moral hazard. We find that insurers that face lower marginal RBC costs of fixed-income (FI) investment tend to purchase riskier Fl securities. This relationship holds even when lower marginal RBC costs result from increased risk in other risk categories, which is an unintended consequence of the RBC's square root rule. Using Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy as exogenous shocks to the RBC …

Small Data, Small Steps: Lessons From Assessing The Investment Studio, Jiaxin Low

Research Collection Library

Singapore Management University’s (SMU) Li Ka Shing Library was renovated in 2014. During the renovation, the Investment Studio was created within the library to house high-end financial databases such as Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters (now Refinitiv). Usage of the space was assessed using quantitative and qualitative data, comparing the first academic terms across two academic years, 2017 and 2018. The data provided evidence to support anecdotal evidence and library staff’s knowledge and observation. The assessment resulted recommendations for further action. It also provided opportunity to engage with users and stakeholders of this unique space.

Three Essays On Information Diffusion And Market Friction, Li Guo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

How markets impound information into asset prices is one of the most important concerns of financial economics. Due to behavioural bias and transaction friction, information could be mispriced in the real world, thus driving market anomalies and return predictability of behavioural factors. My dissertation contributes to the literature by investigating how information can be quantified, acquired, disseminated and priced in the financial market with the existence of market frictions.

In Chapter 2, we propose an efficient method based on machine learning and textual analysis to quantify cross industry news and shed light on how news travels across different industries. The …

The Impact Of Fintech Innovations And Financial Standards On Bank Performance: Evidence From Selected Commercial Banks In Asean, Kiyono Hasaka

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In the rapidly evolving financial
technology (fintech) landscape, there has been an increase in the number of the
industry research papers and articles on fintech adoption and innovations. However,
there are relatively few empirical studies that provide a quantitative analysis
of the effects of fintech and financial standards on bank performance using
financial indicators. This dissertation attempts to fill this research gap by
identifying and analysing the impact of commercial banks’ adoption of mobile
banking technologies on bank financial performance in five countries that adopted
financial standards in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using
the longitudinal panel data …

Robust Measures Of Earnings Surprises, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We showthat CE is a poor parameter-free approximation for this ideal measure. The fractionof misses on the same side (FOM), by discarding the magnitude of misses, offers a farbetterapproximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting thereturns of US stocks, where bias is potentially large, than that of international …

Stock Market Responses To Unethical Behavior In Organizations: An Organizational Context Model, Bradford E. Baker, Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Marko Pitesa, Micheal D. Johnson

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop and test a model that extends the understanding of how people react to news of organizational unethical behavior and how such reactions impact stock performance. We do so by taking into account the interplay between the features of specific unethical acts and the features of the organizational context within which unethical acts occur. We propose a two-stage model in which the first stage predicts that unethical acts that benefit the organization are judged less harshly than are unethical acts that benefit the actor, when the organization is seen as pursuing a moral goal (e.g., producing inexpensive medicine rather …

Establishing An Asia-Pacific Cryptocurrency Hub, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Asia is leading the way in digital asset markets, but individual countries are taking markedly different paths toward regulation and management in establishing themselves as cryptocurrency hubs, balancing innovation and regulation. Investors should be vigilant about the risks associated with alternative capital-raising methods.

Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, we use high frequency data and an identification via changes in volatility approach to assess the volatility spillovers among oil and the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets. We document the existence of asymmetry in contemporaneous spillover effects. Particularly, during the times when oil’s trading hours overlap with the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets, the volatility spillover from oil to the stock markets is higher than the other way around. We highlight the importance of taking into consideration the information present during continuous trading hours of oil, especially during simultaneous trading hours with the stock markets. …

Sustainable Digital Finance In Asia: Creating Environmental Impact Through Bank Transformation, Ryan Knowles Merrill, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx, Sofie Blakstad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Data is arguably the most valuable resource in the digital economy. Used effectively and responsibly it has the potential to serve as a driving force in creating a more sustainable world. The potential is especially potent in the financial sector given its central place in the financial system, and its access to and use of data.Using technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), mobile technology, internet of things (IoT), and the cloud, data can be captured by sensors in the environment and structured to integrate sustainability into existing financial products and services. These can be creatively combined into entirely new …

Overseas Listing Location And Cost Of Capital: Evidence From Chinese Firms Listed In Hong Kong, Singapore, And The United States, Warrington College Of Business, Frank Weikai Li, Central University Of Finance And Economics

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As at the end of 2012, more than 600 nonstate-owned Chinese firms were listed in overseas stock markets. We find that Chinese firms listed in the US have the lowest cost of capital when compared to those listed in Hong Kong and Singapore, and these results hold when controlling for firm characteristics and the endogeneity of listing locations. Cross-sectional tests indicate that listing in the US is more beneficial to those firms which face higher information asymmetry and agency costs. Overall, our evidence supports the view that the institutional environment has a first-order impact on a firm’s cost of capital.

Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Sai Fan Pei

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter reviews the financial development strategies adopted by the Singapore government as it navigates internal and external changes to build a vibrant center of finance in the Asia Pacific region. Sections 2 and 3 provide an overview of the structure of the financial system and the financial governance framework respectively. This is followed by a discussion, in Section 4, on the outward looking development strategy that underpinned the successful development of Singapore’s financial sector. Section 5 highlights the reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis that led to the building of a well-diversified and thriving international …

Intraday Information From S&P 500 Index Futures Options, Kian Guan Lim, Chen Ying, Kian Leong Nelson Yap

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper we employ intraday transaction prices of liquid E-mini S&P 500 index futuresoptions to form 10-minutes ahead risk-neutral skewness forecasts and show profitable optionstrading strategy net of transaction costs. We do not find profitable trading based on 10-minutesahead risk-neutral volatility and only very marginal cases of profitable trading using kurtosisforecasts. The skewness profitability anomaly may be an indication of informational marketinefficiency in intraday S&P 500 futures options markets, which is contrary to findings usinglonger-span daily and weekly moments. Our results lend credence to the persistence of intradaytrading activities in the markets.

Climate Risks And Market Efficiency, Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Climate science finds that the trend towards higher global temperatures exacerbates the risks of droughts. We investigate whether the prices of food stocks efficiently discount these risks. Using data from thirty-one countries with publicly-traded food companies, we rank these countries each year based on their long-term trends toward droughts using the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A poor trend ranking for a country forecasts relatively poor profit growth for food companies in that country. It also forecasts relatively poor food stock returns in that country. This return predictability is consistent with food stock prices underreacting to climate change risks.

Trading Regularity And Fund Performance, Jeffrey Busse, Lin Tong, Qing Tong, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a new measure of trading regularity, capturing the extent to which investors trade on a regular basis. Institutional investors that regularly trade outperform those that trade less regularly. The performance of funds that regularly trade persists for at least a year. Among those who trade most regularly, larger funds perform relatively worse, because they incur higher transaction costs associated with their larger trades. Institutions that regularly trade generate superior performance, in part, by behaving as contrarians and by trading more aggressively on information. By contrast, we find no relation between trading regularity and performance among index funds.