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Articles 1 - 30 of 62
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Rodney J. Paul
The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor …
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach
Falk College Research Center
The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor …
Ua37/29 Gary Ransdell - Fed. Reserve Board - Ben Bernanke Confirmation Hearing Q&A, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board
Ua37/29 Gary Ransdell - Fed. Reserve Board - Ben Bernanke Confirmation Hearing Q&A, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board
Faculty/Staff Personal Papers
Question and answers from Ben Bernanke's confirmation hearing as distributed to members of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board.
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …
Path To Financial Inclusion: The Success Of Self-Help Groups-Bank Linkage Program In India, Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin
Path To Financial Inclusion: The Success Of Self-Help Groups-Bank Linkage Program In India, Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin
WCBT Faculty Publications
Financial inclusion has been a major theme in both industrialized and developing economies in the era of financial globalization. When microcredit institutions have received limited success in many countries, microfinance is being used in India for the purpose of accomplishing universal financial inclusion. This paper recognizes the overwhelming efforts of the Government of India and focuses on the success of the linkage between commercial banks and self-help groups (SHGs). The SHGs comprising predominantly women groups help in the social cause of alleviation of poverty, increase of sustainability, reduction of vulnerability, improvement of capacity building and help the weaker sections build …
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact ¯nite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on deviance information criterion …
Impact Of Mad Money Stock Recommendations: Merging Financial And Marketing Perspectives, Ekaterina Karniouchina, William L. Moore, Kevin J. Cooney
Impact Of Mad Money Stock Recommendations: Merging Financial And Marketing Perspectives, Ekaterina Karniouchina, William L. Moore, Kevin J. Cooney
Business Faculty Articles and Research
This article relies on advertising and persuasive communications theories to uncover persistent variations in investor response to television stock recommendations targeting naive investors. The authors use an event study methodology to determine the size of the next-day abnormal market reaction to recommendations on Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Although viewers are actively looking for recommendations, the results show that any individual recommendation is still subject to many of the same communication challenges as traditional advertisements. A regression analysis finds that traditional advertising variables, such as message length, recency-primacy effects, information clutter, and source credibility, influence the size of the market …
Origins And Resolution Of Financial Crises: Lessons From The Current And Northern European Crises, Finn Ostrup, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg
Origins And Resolution Of Financial Crises: Lessons From The Current And Northern European Crises, Finn Ostrup, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg
Business Faculty Articles and Research
Since July 2007, the world economy has experienced a severe financial crisis that originated in the U.S. housing market. Subsequently, the crisis has spread to financial sectors in European and Asian economies and led to a severe worldwide recession. The existing literature on financial crises rarely distinguishes between factors that create the original strain on the financial sector and factors that explain why these strains lead to system-wide contagion and a possible credit crunch. Most of the literature on financial crises refers to factors that cause an original disruption in the financial system. We argue that a financial crisis with …
Restarting Securitization Markets: Policy Proposals And Pitfalls, John Kiff, Andy Jobst, Jodi Scarlata, Michael Kisser
Restarting Securitization Markets: Policy Proposals And Pitfalls, John Kiff, Andy Jobst, Jodi Scarlata, Michael Kisser
John Kiff
This chapter tracks the rise and fall of securitization markets, and evaluates the various initiatives aimed at restarting them on a sounder footing, focusing on the markets for securities not backed by governments or government-sponsored enterprises. The analysis attempts to discern how securitization can positively contribute to financial stability and sustainable economic growth. While most of the current proposals are unambiguously positive for securitization markets and financial stability, some proposals—such as those designed to improve the alignment of securitizer and investor interests and accounting changes that will result in more securitized assets remaining on balance sheets—may be combined in ways …
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner
Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner
James J Forest
This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …
Influence Of Financial Storm On The Ship Chartering Market And The Way Of Risks Control, Xingyuan Sun
Influence Of Financial Storm On The Ship Chartering Market And The Way Of Risks Control, Xingyuan Sun
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Research On Scf Model Under Financial Crisis: An Integrated Sc Project In China Based On Financing, Rui Liu
Research On Scf Model Under Financial Crisis: An Integrated Sc Project In China Based On Financing, Rui Liu
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Research On The Supply Chain Inventory Management To Gen Garment Co. Ltd, Wei Wang
Research On The Supply Chain Inventory Management To Gen Garment Co. Ltd, Wei Wang
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
The Evolution Of Lianyungang Port Fund From Share Market, Pengyu Bai
The Evolution Of Lianyungang Port Fund From Share Market, Pengyu Bai
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
The Research On Risk Evaluation Of Shanghai Lng Import Program, Chao Lin
The Research On Risk Evaluation Of Shanghai Lng Import Program, Chao Lin
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
The Research On Function And Application Of Financial Leasing For Small And Medium Size Shipping Enterprise: Decision Making On Ship Financing In M Company, Yu Miao
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
The Correlation Analysis Between Financial And Shipping Industry, Bailin Sui
The Correlation Analysis Between Financial And Shipping Industry, Bailin Sui
World Maritime University Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio
Are Credit Unions In Ecuador Achieving Economies Of Scale?, Nick A. Marchio
Economics Honors Projects
This study tests the assertion that membership growth in credit unions is constrained by their unique structural features, such as their non-profit mission and member-based ownership. Although these features enhance inclusiveness, existing theory suggest that they work against efficiency when membership grows too diffuse. To address this issue, this study uses a model that takes into account existing theory on constrained-optimization in credit unions and theory on the adverse effects of diffuse ownership. Using data on 36 public credit unions in Ecuador, the empirical analysis finds evidence that credit unions can achieve economies of scale despite their problematic structural features. …
Land Conservation And Land Use In New England: Trends, Challenges & Opportunities, Amanda Loomis, Tom Devine, Andrea Small, Brittany Howard, Brett Richardson, Stephanie Dulac
Land Conservation And Land Use In New England: Trends, Challenges & Opportunities, Amanda Loomis, Tom Devine, Andrea Small, Brittany Howard, Brett Richardson, Stephanie Dulac
Land Conservation
Sprawling development patterns accelerated across the New England landscape in the last three decades and consumed the region‘s forests, farms, and open spaces at an unprecedented rate. New England‘ers in all six states formed land trusts, supported statewide conservation organizations, and collaborated with state and federal partners to protect some of their most-prized recreation lands, wildlife habitats, and working lands. The current economic recession has slowed development pressures across the region and offers an opportunity to build on recent successes. The time is right to plan a coordinated New England conservation strategy that protects and links the region‘s natural assets. …
South Burlington Vt: New Urbanist South Village, Jack Kartez, Richard Barringer
South Burlington Vt: New Urbanist South Village, Jack Kartez, Richard Barringer
Planning
The 220 acre master plan for South Village, the largest project in the City of South Burlington’s history, encompasses multiple housing types and innovative provisions for affordable housing. It integrates housing with open space and natural resource conservation, including a major Community Supported Agriculture project developed by a nonprofit partner, the Intervale Foundation. While not a mixed-use project (that is, commercial as well as residential development), South Village nonetheless represents a qualitative change in approach for South Burlington by incorporating large-scale open space preservation as part of development and multiple housing-types in one project. The case study recounts events leading …
Intensified Regulatory Scrutiny And Bank Distress In New York City During The Great Depression,” With Patrick Van Horn, Gary Richardson
Intensified Regulatory Scrutiny And Bank Distress In New York City During The Great Depression,” With Patrick Van Horn, Gary Richardson
Gary Richardson
Bank distress peaked in New York City, at the center of the United States money market, in July and August 1931, when the banking crisis peaked in Germany and before Britain abandoned the gold standard. This article tests competing theories about the causes of New York’s banking crisis. The cause appears to have been intensified regulatory scrutiny, which was a delayed reaction to the failure of the Bank of United States, rather than the exposure of money center banks to events overseas.
Policies To Mitigate Procyclicality, John Kiff, Jochen Andritzky, Laura Kodres, Jodi Scarlata, Andrea Maechler, Pamela Madrid, Aditya Narain, Noel Sacasa
Policies To Mitigate Procyclicality, John Kiff, Jochen Andritzky, Laura Kodres, Jodi Scarlata, Andrea Maechler, Pamela Madrid, Aditya Narain, Noel Sacasa
John Kiff
The present crisis has focused attention on how procyclicality in the financial system can have outsized effects. This paper examines the reasons for this, specifically focusing on regulations or market practices that can accentuate economic cycles. In this light, the paper thus discusses the role of private sector risk management practices (including liquidity risk management), compensation practices, capital adequacy requirements and provisioning rules, deposit insurance regimes, and monetary policy actions. While recognizing various practical limitations, new policy responses are identified that could help to mitigate procyclicality.
Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara (2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley–Hvidkjaer–O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news …
The U.S. Economic Crisis: Another "Lost Decade"?, Paula Chungsathaporn
The U.S. Economic Crisis: Another "Lost Decade"?, Paula Chungsathaporn
Honors College Theses
America is experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression originating with problems from mortgage backed securities and seeping into every major sector in the economy. We have witnessed the downfall or government takeover of some of the most powerful companies in the country, contributing to the highest unemployment rate America has seen in decades. During the 1990s, Japan experienced what is commonly referred to as “the lost decade,” a period of prolonged stagnant growth. Many similarities can be drawn between the current U.S. crisis and the Japanese crisis of the late 90s. The macroeconomic conditions that caused the …
Hype My Stock: Do Firms Really Want Biased Research?, Roger Loh
Hype My Stock: Do Firms Really Want Biased Research?, Roger Loh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Analyst research is alleged to be biased because of conflicts of interest when analysts’ employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I posit that affiliated analyst optimism should be the strongest for offering firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. I hypothesize that a firm’s corporate governance and its CEO incentives are related to the affiliation bias. Using stock recommendations data, I find evidence that the affiliation bias is indeed more pervasive for firms with high CEO wealth sensitivity to stock price (i.e., high CEO delta). The larger affiliation bias for high delta firms remains even after the introduction …
The Cost Of Treating Addiction From The Client's Perspective: Results From A Multi-Modality Application Of The Client Datcap, Kathryn E. Mccollister, Michael T. French, Jeffrey M. Pyne, Brenda Booth, Richard Rapp, Carey Carr
The Cost Of Treating Addiction From The Client's Perspective: Results From A Multi-Modality Application Of The Client Datcap, Kathryn E. Mccollister, Michael T. French, Jeffrey M. Pyne, Brenda Booth, Richard Rapp, Carey Carr
Sociology Faculty Articles and Papers
There is a considerable disparity between the number of individuals who need substance abuse treatment and the number who actually receive it. This is partly due to the fact that many individuals with substance use disorders do not perceive a need for formal treatment. Another contributing factor, however, is a discrepancy between the real and perceived cost of services. Although many cost evaluations of substance abuse treatment have been conducted from the treatment provider perspective, less is known about the client-specific costs of attending treatment (e.g., lost work and leisure time, transportation, out-of-pocket and in-kind payments). Concerns about financial and …
Indian Business Through Film, Collaborative Project
Indian Business Through Film, Collaborative Project
Dyson College- Seidenberg School of CSIS : Collaborative Projects and Presentations
This entry adheres to the use of the quad chart template to provide a succint description only of the current research project undertaken by the participants. It provides for the following information
1. Participants and Affiliations 2. Overall Project Goals 3. Illustrative picture 4. Specific research/artistic/pedagogic foci
The Impact Of The Summer Olympics On Its Host City: The Costs Outweigh The Tangible Benefits, Steven Rosenblum
The Impact Of The Summer Olympics On Its Host City: The Costs Outweigh The Tangible Benefits, Steven Rosenblum
Honors Projects in History and Social Sciences
In the eyes of a host city, the reason to host the Summer Olympic Games has evolved from shining glory on athletic feats to receiving the perceived benefits from the opportunity. In the current times, there are a record number of Olympic events generating a demand for the construction of a larger amount of Games facilities than ever before. However, nations still vie for the winning bid to host the Olympics in one of their cities. This paper seeks to show that the costs of hosting the Games outweigh its tangible benefits. In detail, it will look at the financial, …
Film Finance: Teaching/Research, Collaborative Project
Film Finance: Teaching/Research, Collaborative Project
Dyson College- Seidenberg School of CSIS : Collaborative Projects and Presentations
This entry adheres to the use of the quad chart template to provide a succinct description only of the current research project undertaken by the participants. It provides for the following information
1. Participants and Affiliations
2. Overall Project Goals
3. Illustrative picture
4. Specific research/artistic/pedagogic foci
Supply Based Explanation Of The Equity Premium Puzzle, Richard H. Serlin
Supply Based Explanation Of The Equity Premium Puzzle, Richard H. Serlin
Richard H. Serlin
All of the explanations for the equity premium puzzle I have seen in the literature are based on the demand side; trying to find utility functions for a representative investor and ex-ante probability distributions for returns that would explain investors demanding such high average returns for stocks relative to bonds. I suggest a supply side explanation: The long run supply curve for corporate stock may simply be extremely long and flat, and consistently about 5 ½ percentage points in return higher than the premium bonds supply curve, even at stock quantities as high as the entire national savings rate. Why? …