Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Digital Payments And Consumption: Evidence From The 2016 Demonetization In India, Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Jing Li, Tianyue Ruan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how consumer spending responds to digital payments, using the differential switch to digital payments across consumers induced by the sudden 2016 Indian Demonetization for identification. Usage of digital payments rose by 3.38 percentage points and monthly spending increased by 3% for an additional 10 percentage points in prior cash dependence. Spending remained elevated even when cash availability recovered. Robustness analyses show that the spending response is not driven by income shocks, credit supply, price changes, or consumers' moving to the formal market. We provide evidence that digital payments increase consumer spending due to subdued salience.

Indian Mutual Fund Industry: Is 2014 A Turning Point?, Shobhit Goel, Pawan Kumar

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Indian Mutual Fund Industry has experienced a nearly 40-fold increase in assets under management since the start of the 21^st century, which has implications for the financial sector and the wider economy. Using structural break models, we identify 2003-08 as a nascent growth phase followed by a tepid growth phase in the post-global financial crisis period. Since 2014, the industry has experienced accelerated growth, outpacing global peers, driven by consistent individual investor inflows in equity and hybrid categories. Supportive regulatory policies introduced in 2012-13, we argue, have boosted the industry’s growth.

Impact Of Crises On Indian Financial Markets, Pami Dua, Divya Tuteja

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We investigate the effect of crises on Indian financial markets including the short-term and medium-term money, government securities segments, equity and currency markets. Specifically, we study the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis on market returns, volatility and cross-correlations. We employ a (a) vector autoregressive model to analyse the effects of those shocks on returns and (b) multivariate ADCC-GARCH specification to examine the impact on conditional volatility and dynamic conditional correlation in the markets. We find significant effect of the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic on the dynamics of the …

India And The Rest Of The World: Analyses Of International Monetary Policy Spillovers, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The US is India's largest trading partner, followed by the European Union. Our study, using the GVAR model, shows that a US monetary policy (MP) shock results in a depreciation of the Indian currency vis-a-vis the dollar. This is due to Indian investors preferring to invest in the US, which provides higher returns during a US MP shock. The Eurozone MP shock does not have a significant impact due to the increasing dollarization of the Indian economy. However, the US MP shock propagation diminishes when there is economic policy uncertainty. Our findings have implications for monetary policy conduct in India.

The Macrodynamics Of Indian Rupee Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Working Papers

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling for other factors, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the logarithm of the equity price index, and the logarithm of the INR exchange rate. The estimated models show that the short-term interest rate has an important influence on the swap yields. This implies that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sway borrowing and lending …

India: Reserve Requirements, Gfc, Sharon Nunn, Carey K. Mott

Journal of Financial Crises

As international funding sources dried up during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 (GFC), businesses in India sought funds from domestic financial institutions, straining banks and lifting short-term lending rates. The liquidity pressure, coupled with sharp asset price corrections and rupee depreciation, restricted credit expansion in India. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) responded with a suite of liquidity measures, including cuts to its two reserve requirement ratios, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR). The RBI cut the CRR over the course of four months from October 2008 to January 2009, lowering the ratio from …

Does Microcredit Reduce Poverty? An Empirical Exploration In India, Aneel Karnani, Seema Sahai

Markets, Globalization & Development Review

Microcredit has grown dramatically over the last few decades and its supporters have made extravagant promises about its potential impact on reducing poverty. However, much recent research has shown that microcredit has no significant impact on reducing poverty. In this exploratory study we interview 205 clients of for-profit microcredit to better understand the causes of why microcredit has not lived up to its promise. We find the basic problem is that the lending policies of the microcredit organizations are designed to lower the costs and risks, and hence increase the profits of the organization, and are not responsive to the …

Microfinance And The Decision To Invest In Children’S Education, P.V. Viswanath

Faculty Working Papers

Although one of the primary objectives of microfinance has been the reduction of poverty through the provision of credit for income-generating purposes, evidence of its impact on poverty has been mixed. Even if there is no direct impact of microfinance, there may be an indirect positive impact through the effect of microcredit availability on families’ decisions to invest in their children’s education. In this paper, I describe a study undertaken to gauge the impact of microcredit availability on education expenditures for children of clients of a South Indian microfinance institution. I first look at some determinants of the demand for …

Financing And Productivity: Evidence From Indian Manufacturing Industry, Tingyi Wu

Master's Theses

India grows rapidly in recent years, not to mention its high-technology industry. What are secrets behind this fast-growing situation? This paper intends to find the answer using a firm-level panel data in India and examine the loan-productivity relationship via both contemporaneous and lagged models. I find positive and statistically significant results that loans play an important role in firms’ performances.

Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose

Asian Management Insights

Indian banks are currently experiencing poor performance when it comes to debt risk. Burdened with high non-performing loans (NPL), they are putting at risk the funds of investors as well as India’s industrial and economic growth. In addition, the loan management process itself is riddled with inefficiencies. To overcome them, we propose to use blockchain technology.

Testing For Weak Form Market Efficiency In Indian Foreign Exchange Makret, Anoop Sasikumar

Anoop Sasikumar

This paper attempts to examine the weak form of market efficiency in the Indian foreign exchange market using a family of variance ratio tests. Monthly Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) data from April 1993-June 2010 were used for the analysis. NEER series was considered for the analysis as it is supposed to capture more information compared to the bilateral exchange rates. Three individual variance ratio tests as well as three joint variance ratio tests were used for the purpose of analysis. After analyzing the results from both individual and joint variance ratio test, it was concluded that Indian foreign exchange …

An Analysis Of Presence Of Long Memory In The Indian Foreign Exchange Market, Anoop Sasikumar

Anoop Sasikumar

This paper seeks to analyze the presence of long memory in the Indian foreign exchange market using a family of tests. The study has used Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) series as the data source to check the possible presence of long memory. Three R/S statistics viz. Hurst, Mandelbrot’s and Lo’s modified R/S statistics as well as two semi-parametric tests viz. Robinson’s Gaussian semi-parametric estimate and Andrews-Guggenberger modified GPH estimator are used for the purpose of analysis. All the results conclusively prove the presence of strong version of long memory in the Indian foreign exchange market.

Performance Of The Indian Banking Industry Over The Last Ten Years, Saumya Lohia

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the performance of Indian banks over the period of the last ten years. It uses the CAMEL Framework to determine the performance of public and private banks in India. The paper also conducts an empirical analysis to determine the share price performance of Indian banks relative to the share price performance of banks in Hong Kong, Europe and the US. This paper finds that private banks perform better than public banks overall based on the CAMEL Framework. In addition it also finds that the Indian banks share price performance is dependent on the share price performance of …

Effect Of Monetary Incentives On Institutional Deliveries: Evidence From The Janani Suraksha Yojna In India, Ambrish A. Dongre

Ambrish A Dongre

This paper is the fi#12;rst attempt to rigorously evaluate the short term e#11;ffects of the `Janani Suraksha Yojna' (Safe Motherhood Scheme), a nationwide conditional cash transfer program in India, launched in April 2005. Under the scheme, a woman delivering her child in a medical facility is provided monetary rewards.

My diff#11;erence-in-di#11;fference results indicate that in the initial one and a half years of its operation, the scheme did not have any eff#11;ect on the disparity between the targeted and non- targeted states. In fact, the gap widened in this period, albeit marginally. But beginning from 2007, the targeted states have …

Women Head Of The Village Councils And Water Borne Diseases, Ambrish A. Dongre

Ambrish A Dongre

This paper examines the relation between prevalence of water- borne diseases and gender of the head of the village councils by exploiting a `natural experiment' in local governance in India. A constitutional amendment in early 1990s ensured that only women could be the head in at least one- third of the village councils selected randomly. Utilizing a unique sample survey, we show that having a woman as the council head seems to have no effect on the prevalence of water borne diseases. But if we look into the sub- categories of the women council heads, we find that the women …

Economic Reforms, Fdi, And Economic Growth In India Sector Level Analysis, Chandana Chakraborty, Peter Nunnenkamp

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Booming foreign direct investment (FDI) in post-reform India is widely believed to promote economic growth. We assess this proposition by subjecting industry-specific FDI and output data to Granger causality tests within a panel cointegration framework. It turns out that the growth effects of FDI vary widely across sectors. FDI stocks and output are mutually reinforcing in the manufacturing sector, whereas any causal relationship is absent in the primary sector. Most strikingly, we find only transitory effects of FDI on output in the services sector. However, FDI in the services sector appears to have promoted growth in the manufacturing sector through …

Why Brazil Has Not Grown: A Comparative Analysis Of Brazilian, Indian, And Chinese Economic Management, Fernando Ferrari, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper does not aim to dispute that Brazil would benefit from reforms in any or all of these areas. Rather, the paper offers a skeptical perspective on reform menus and proposes an alternative explanation for the faster growth of Brazil’s peers India and China2. The paper begins by introducing (section 1) the idea of the BRICs countries, to establish the basis for comparisons of most similar cases. It then surveys the results of a generation of Washington Consensus era growth (section 2). Although there is a considerable amount of divergence over what causes growth, it seems that something approaching …

The Efficiency Of Emerging Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence From The South Asian Region, Arusha V. Cooray, G. Wickramasighe

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This paper examines the efficiency in the stock markets of India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF-1979, 1981), the Phillips-Perron (PP-1988), the Dicky-Fuller Generalized Least Square (DF-GLS-1996) and Elliot-Rothenberg-Stock (ERS – 1996) tests are used to examine weak form stock market efficiency. Weak form efficiency is supported by the classical unit root tests. However, it is not strongly supported for Bangladesh under the DF-GLS and ERS tests. Cointegration and Granger causality tests are used to examine semi-strong form efficiency. Semi-strong form efficiency is not supported as these tests indicate a high degree of interdependence among the …

Financial Intermediation And National Growth: Why India Needs To Further Develop Its Stock Markets, Deepika Gupta

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

The aim of this paper is twofold: to show the positive growth effect on economies through steady stock market growth, and to analyze the performance of India’s stock markets over the last decade on national growth. I start out in Section I with economic analyses of the high correlation between stock market indicators and the development of all financial institutions. Studies conducted by other economists prove correlations between the stock market and other macroeconomic indicators such as liquidity, level of banking, volatility, consumption, income and stock prices. Section II is a detailed case analysis of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) …