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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™

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Finance

Singapore Management University

2010

Articles 1 - 18 of 18

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis Dec 2010

Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi…cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …

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Sequential Investment, Hold-Up And Strategic Delay, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang Dec 2010

Sequential Investment, Hold-Up And Strategic Delay, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate hold-up with simultaneous and sequential investment. We show that if the encouragement effect of sequential complementary investments dominates the delay effect, sequential investment alleviates the underinvestment caused by the hold-up problem. Further, if it is allowed to choose when to invest, strategic delay occurs when the encouragement effect of sequential complementary investments dominates the delay effect.

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On The Robustness Of The Positive Relation Between Expected Idiosyncratic Volatility And Expected Return, Fangjian Fu Dec 2010

On The Robustness Of The Positive Relation Between Expected Idiosyncratic Volatility And Expected Return, Fangjian Fu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

My 2009 JFE paper ["Idiosyncratic Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns', Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 91, pp. 24-37] documents a positive and statistically significant cross-sectional relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility (E(IVOL)) and expected stock return. A recent working paper titled "On the Relation between EGARCH Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns" by Guo, Ferguson, and Kassa of University of Cincinnati suggests that the positive relation is driven by an in-sample approach to estimate E(IVOL). They fail to find a significant relation between return and their E(IVOL) estimated out of sample. I find that two estimation settings in …

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Estimating The Garch Diffusion: Simulated Maximum Likelihood In Continuous Time, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug Oct 2010

Estimating The Garch Diffusion: Simulated Maximum Likelihood In Continuous Time, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new algorithm is developed to provide a simulated maximum likelihood estimation of the GARCH diffusion model of Nelson (1990) based on return data only. The method combines two accurate approximation procedures, namely, the polynomial expansion of Ait-Sahalia (2008) to approximate the transition probability density of return and volatility, and the Efficient Importance Sampler (EIS) of Richard and Zhang (2007) to integrate out the volatility. The first and second order terms in the polynomial expansion are used to generate a base-line importance density for an EIS algorithm. The higher order terms are included when evaluating the importance weights. Monte Carlo …

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Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels Oct 2010

Using Financial Econometrics To Measure Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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International Capital Flows And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang Oct 2010

International Capital Flows And Aggregate Output, Jurgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a tractable multi-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows. Domestic financial frictions in our model distort interest rates and aggregate output in the less financially developed countries. International capital flows help ameliorate the two distortions. International flows of financial capital and foreign direct investment affect aggregate output in each country directly through affecting the size of aggregate investment. In addition, they affect aggregate output indirectly through affecting the composition of aggregate investment and the size of aggregate savings. Under certain conditions, the indirect effects may …

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Measurement And High Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels Oct 2010

Measurement And High Finance, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu, Eric Ghysels

Research Collection School Of Economics

Turbulence in the world of banking and finance over the last two years has riveted media attention on the financial industry, exposing practices, products and risks in the industry to widespread public scrutiny. Questions continue to be asked about the management and regulation of an industry whose performance is now seen to affect the world’s financial health and its prospects as much as it does national savings and individual retirement funds.

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An Asian Response To International Financial Reforms, Hoe Ee Khor, Kim Song Tan Oct 2010

An Asian Response To International Financial Reforms, Hoe Ee Khor, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Asia has emerged as a much more important player in the global economy after the recent financial crisis. Together with other emerging market economies, Asia is expected to be a key driver for global economic growth in the near to medium term. Along with this, there is a rising chorus for an “Asian approach” to financial reforms in the region and internationally. There are also calls for Asia to play a bigger role in designing the new architecture for the global financial system.

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Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Kalina Manova Jul 2010

Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Kalina Manova

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or …

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Optimal Monetary Policy In A Model With Recursive Preferences, Sungbae An May 2010

Optimal Monetary Policy In A Model With Recursive Preferences, Sungbae An

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a simple and elegance approach for an empirical investigation of a model with Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. The perturbation method implemented in Dynare is readily applicable for computation of equilibrium and welfare. A stylized new Keynesian economy with sticky prices is analyzed and optimal simple rules are accessed across various types of monetary policy rules.

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Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu Mar 2010

Simulation-Based Estimation Methods For Financial Time Series Models, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper overviews some recent advances on simulation-based methods of estimating time series models and asset pricing models that are widely used in finance. The simulation based methods have proven to be particularly useful when the likelihood function and moments do not have tractable forms and hence the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) are difficult to use. They can also be useful for improving the finite sample performance of the traditional methods when financial time series are highly persistent and when the quantity of interest is a highly nonlinear function of system parameters. The …

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Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan Mar 2010

Monetary Policy Cooperation To Support Asian Economic Integration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Nicholas Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers the form of monetary policy coordination and regional exchange rate arrangement that would best support economic and financial integration in East Asia. In view of the region's economic diversity, we propose a graduated program of informal policy cooperation from weak forms of cooperation to more intensive modes of cooperation such as the adoption of common monetary policy objectives. An array of informal monetary arrangements rooted to the degree of institutional development can improve the effectiveness of both sovereign and regional institutions, and promote integration in East Asia. Drawing upon the European experience with the Exchange Rate Mechanism …

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The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao Li Chang Feb 2010

The Optimal Degree Of Reciprocity In Tariff Reduction, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article clari.es the roles played by trade policy, in contrast with iceberg transport cost, in the popular setting of Melitz (2003), and characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in such a setting. I show that import tariffs and iceberg transport cost are not equivalent in the strength of their trade-restricting e¤ects and their welfare implications. With all the con.icting effectsof import tari¤s on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tari¤ reduction turns out to be free trade.

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Bayesian Analysis Of Country Risk Premia In Developing Small Open Economies, Seigmund Vincent Roque Conti Jan 2010

Bayesian Analysis Of Country Risk Premia In Developing Small Open Economies, Seigmund Vincent Roque Conti

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis studies a model presented by Neumeyer & Perri (2005), which aims to explain the strong countercyclicality of interest rates and net exports in emerging market economies. The model accomplishes this by decomposing interest rates into an international rate and a country risk component, and by making labor demand sensitive to movements in these rates via a working capital constraint imposed on the representative firm. Moreover, it proposes two approaches to determining the stochastic processes for these interest rates: the independent country risk case and the induced country risk case. The induced country risk model calibrated to Argentine data …

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Risking Returns: Moving From Public To Private Equity, Aurobindo Ghosh Jan 2010

Risking Returns: Moving From Public To Private Equity, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The notion of risk identifies a project that matches with the risk appetite of an entrepreneur not necessarily the investors. This can explain why entrepreneurs would start up companies but it cannot explain why ex-post the investors continue, given that a diversified portfolio of publicly traded assets could potentially generate similar return with lower risk. We re-evaluate the evidence through performance measures using relative probability distributions of public and private equity funds, and identify the nature of the deviations. We observe that the heterogeneity in different investor classes are greatly reduced using standard covariates to identify the choice between public …

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Firm And Industry Characteristics Of Exchange Rate Exposure And Optimal Hedging Strategy: Evidence On China, Fen Yan Jan 2010

Firm And Industry Characteristics Of Exchange Rate Exposure And Optimal Hedging Strategy: Evidence On China, Fen Yan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Understanding the effect of foreign exchange rate movements on the value of firm is a critical element for the purpose of risk management. In this thesis, firm and industry specific exposures to exchange rate movements in the Chinese market before and after the exchange rate regime reform in 2005 are examined. We observe that at the one-week return horizon, among all the firms listed in the China Exchange Market before the year 2001, less than 10% of the firms exhibit significant "residual exposure" to bilateral exchange rate movements against China’s major trading partners before the reform. In contrast, the proportion …

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The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Stock Market: Evidence From China, Yu Zeng Jan 2010

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Stock Market: Evidence From China, Yu Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this paper we examine how stock returns in China respond to monetary policy announcements made by PBC in a short term around announcement day. We employ a nonparametric event-study method to investigate such reactions. We arrive at the following conclusions. Firstly, there is information leakage of monetary policy changes, which is verified by significant changes in stock returns before monetary policy announcement and quitness of stock market after announcement. Secondly, financially constrained and financially unconstrained firms respond quite similarly to monetary policy shocks, which disobeys credit channel of monetary policy transmission in the short run. Thirdly, reserve ratio changes …

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Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow Jan 2010

Managing Capital Flows: The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

The resurgence of private capital inflows into Asia in recent years has raised the question of whether the region is susceptible to yet another financial crisis. While a sudden large-scale reversal of capital flows is not likely to result in a liquidity crunch or balance of payments crisis, the attendant sharp corrections in asset prices will have an adverse impact on the economy particularly through indirect channels. We present, in this study, Singapore’s experience in managing the risks posed by capital flows as well as the retention of control over exchange rates and monetary conditions. It is the overall package …

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