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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™

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Finance

Singapore Management University

2006

Articles 1 - 15 of 15

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu Dec 2006

Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theortical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo …

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Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay Dec 2006

Mixing Frequencies: Stock Returns As A Predictor Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We find that our mixed frequency models perform well in forecasting real output growth.

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Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen Nov 2006

Choice Of Currency By East Asia Bond Issuers, David Fernandez, Simon Klassen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In discussing bond markets in Asia, academics and policymakers typically begin by noting that the Asian crisis of 1997-98 in part resulted from the underdevelopment of the region’s domestic bond markets and the resultant currency and duration mismatches. When assessing the progress made in developing these markets in the post-crisis years, academics and policymakers usually observe that, while several domestic currency government bond markets have moved ahead, corporate bond markets have lagged (Asian Development Bank (2002), Reserve Bank of Australia (2003)). The policy conclusion is therefore often drawn: to prevent another Asian crisis, Asian bond markets must be further developed.

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On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu Sep 2006

On The Magnet Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment, Pao Li Chang, Chia-Hui Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We extend Antras and Helpman (2004) on firm heterogeneity and organizational choice to a dynamic setting with FDI uncertainty, in which the probability of investment failure decreases with the host country's infrastructure level and increases with the technological complexity facing each firm. Moreover, it decreases over time as the accumulated mass of firms succeeding in FDI increases. We show that a minimum level of infrastructure is required to trigger a first wave of industrial migration. We then formalize the often noted "magnet effect" of FDI - the first wave of industrial migration generates positive externality (information spillover) for subsequent investors, …

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Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow Aug 2006

Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Frankel and Wei [Frankel, J. A., & Wei, S.-J. (1994). Yen bloc or dollar bloc: Exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies. In I. Takatoshi & A. Krueger (Eds.), Macroeconomic linkages. Chicago: University of Chicago Press] developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond …

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Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip Jul 2006

Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon Jun 2006

Growth Accounting For A Follower-Economy In A World Of Ideas: The Example Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we take another approach to accounting for the sources of Singapore’s economic growth by being explicit about the channels through which Singapore, as a technological follower, benefits from international R&D spillovers. Taking into account the channels through which technology developed in the G5 countries diffuses to technological followers, we show that 57.5 percent of Singapore’s real GDP per worker growth rate over the 1970-2002 period is due to multifactor productivity growth. In particular, about 52 percent of the growth is accounted for by an increase in the effectiveness of accessing ideas developed by the technology leaders through …

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External Debt, Adjustment, And Growth, Roberto S. Mariano, Delano Villanueva May 2006

External Debt, Adjustment, And Growth, Roberto S. Mariano, Delano Villanueva

Research Collection School Of Economics

High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. More importantly, the servicing of large debt stocks has diverted scarce resources from investment and long-term growth.

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Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy Mar 2006

Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article studies a set of yield curve trading strategies that are based on the view that the yield curve mean reverts to an unconditional curve. These mean-reverting trading strategies exploit deviations in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve from historical norms. Some mean-reverting strategies were found to have significant positive profits. Furthermore, the profitability of one of these strategies significantly outperforms, on a risk-adjusted basis, alternative strategies of an investment bond or equity index.

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Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Sock Yong Phang, Augustine H. H. Tan, Susan M. Wachter Mar 2006

Underpriced Default Spread Exacerbates Market Crashes, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Sock Yong Phang, Augustine H. H. Tan, Susan M. Wachter

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we develop a specific observable symptom of a banking system that underprices the default spread in non-recourse asset-backed lending. Using three different data sets for 18 countries and property types, we find that, following a negative demand shock, the “underpricing” economies experience far deeper asset market crashes than economies in which the put option is correctly priced. Furthermore, only one of the countries in our sample continues to exhibit the underpricing symptom following a market crash. This indicates that market crashes have a cleansing effect and eliminate underpricing at least for a period of time. This makes …

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Competition Policy In Indonesia, Malcolm Dowling Feb 2006

Competition Policy In Indonesia, Malcolm Dowling

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Indonesian economy was dominated by the government in the decades of the 1970s and 1980s through its control of major mining, manufacturing and agricultural activities. Hill (2000) estimates that as much as 40% of non-agricultural GDP was accounted for by government entities in the late 1980s There were still a lot of government corporations up until the late 1980s and early 1990s and governmental control over the banking system was still substantial.

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The Micro-Foundations Of Intertemporal Price Discrimination, Winston T. H. Koh Feb 2006

The Micro-Foundations Of Intertemporal Price Discrimination, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the optimality of intertemporal price discrimination for a durable-good monopoly in a model where infinitely-lived households face an intertemporal budget constraint, and consume both durable goods and non-durable goods. We prove that the optimal price of the durable good is not constant, and may decrease or increase over time. Some households may choose to purchase the durable good at a later date, and pay lower or higher prices, since the gain in discounted utility of consuming more of the non-durable good more than compensates for the loss in utility from delaying the consumption of the durable good. …

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Effects Of Technological Improvement In The Ict Producing Sector On Business Activity, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Feb 2006

Effects Of Technological Improvement In The Ict Producing Sector On Business Activity, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

It seems to be taken for granted by many commentators that the sharp decline in prices of computers, telecommunications equipment and software resulting from the technological improvements in the information and communications technology (ICT)-producing sector is good for jobs and is a major driving force behind the non-inflationary employment miracle and booming stock market in the latter half of the nineties in the U.S. and their recurrence since 2004. We show that, in our model, a technical improvement in the ICT-producing sector by itself cannot explain a simultaneous increase in employment and a rise in firms’ valuation (or Tobin’s Q …

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A Survey On Physical Delivery Versus Cash Settlement In Futures Contracts, Donald Lien, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2006

A Survey On Physical Delivery Versus Cash Settlement In Futures Contracts, Donald Lien, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

A futures contract may adopt physical delivery or cash settlement to liquidate open positions after the maturity day. While traditionally physical delivery specification is favored, exchanges have recently turned to examine cash settlement possibilities. This paper summarizes current literature on settlement specifications with emphases on market manipulation, cash index construction, and hedging effectiveness comparisons.

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An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2006

An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …

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