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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Crude Oil Price Prediction With Decision Tree Based Regression Approach, Engu Chen, Xin James He
Crude Oil Price Prediction With Decision Tree Based Regression Approach, Engu Chen, Xin James He
Journal of International Technology and Information Management
Crude oil is an essential commodity for industry and the prediction of its price is crucial for many business entities and government organizations. While there have been quite a few conventional statistical models to forecast oil prices, we find that there is not much research using decision tree models to predict crude oil prices. In this research, we develop decision tree models to forecast crude oil prices. In addition to historical crude oil price time series data, we also use some predictor variables that would potentially affect crude oil prices, including crude oil demand and supply, and monthly GDP and …
Crude Oil Prices Forecasting: Time Series Vs. Svr Models, Xin James He
Crude Oil Prices Forecasting: Time Series Vs. Svr Models, Xin James He
Journal of International Technology and Information Management
This research explores the weekly crude oil price data from U.S. Energy Information Administration over the time period 2009 - 2017 to test the forecasting accuracy by comparing time series models such as simple exponential smoothing (SES), moving average (MA), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) against machine learning support vector regression (SVR) models. The main purpose of this research is to determine which model provides the best forecasting results for crude oil prices in light of the importance of crude oil price forecasting and its implications to the economy. While SVR is often considered the best forecasting model in …
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
Bullion
Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.