Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

How Are Global Trade Relationships Affected By Western Sanctions?, Colin A. Martinez

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Do sanctions actually have an impact on their intended targets? This paper seeks to fill a gap in the existing literature on the effectiveness of sanctions by measuring potential impacts on the trade relationships of targeted states after the imposition of sanctions. To do so, it turns to a comprehensive dataset that combines all trade and sanctions data for each of 229 states, arranged in 23,132 dyads, from 2000 through 2019. It then examines 792 regressions using a hybrid fixed effects difference-in-difference model applied to twelve different types of sanctions, differentiated by the sanctioning state’s membership in certain groups of …

Topics In Energy, Trade And Environmental, And Public Economics, Ivan Peter Anich

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three papers, one each in energy economics, the environment and trade, and public economics. The first chapter generalizes the classical concept of the Lindahl allocation, a normative standard by which a theoretical provision of public goods is judged. The generalization, called a Generalized Lindahl Equilibrium (GLE), requires a personalized tax schedule to be assigned to each consumer, rather than a single personalized tax. This allows for non-linear taxation, redistribution of consumer surplus, and a more `just' provision of public goods. The second chapter studies how trade policy and environmental policy affect the timing of adoption of …

Fear Of China's Economic Power: Media And Party Affiliation On Public Opinion, Cloe Hughes

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The United States and China are the world’s two greatest economic rivals. The US-China trade war–which started in 2018–is a result of this battle for economic hegemony and has raged on for the past six years. While trade decisions are ultimately up to policymakers, public opinion is a large factor in international policy decisions, and American biases against the Chinese may adversely affect both the American and Chinese economies. In this paper, I will examine how factors including media consumption and partisanship impact American attitudes towards China’s economy overtaking the United States’ economy. Previous research has studied the effects of …

Technology And The Global Economy, Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models.

The Relationship Changes Between Asian Countries And Advanced Economies Before And After 2008, Jingyu Wang

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is aimed to discuss the relationship change between east and southeast Asian countries and advanced economies, especially focus on the export and import changes before and after 2008. This study uses both econometrics model (fixed effect, first difference effect, difference-in-difference model) and social network models to analyze the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on these Asian countries and advanced economies. The results show that after 2008 the impact of exports with advanced economies on GDP per capita growth has changed from negative to positive, while the impact of imports with advanced economies on GDP per capita growth …

Regulatory Protection And The Role Of International Cooperation, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

I develop a general equilibrium framework to analyze the welfare consequences of product regulations and their international harmonization. In my model, raising product standards reduces a negative consumption externality, but also increases the marginal and fixed costs of production. When product standards are set noncooperatively, the effects of standards on other countries' wages and number of firms are not internalized, giving rise to an international inefficiency. The World Trade Organization's nondiscrimination principle of national treatment only partly addresses this inefficiency. Welfare losses from abandoning national treatment average 2.8%, whereas the maximum welfare gains from efficient cooperation average 11.8%.

How Global Value Chains Affect Economic Output And Unemployment: An Empirical Evidence From Asean Countries, Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper examines the effects of Global Value Chains on economic output and unemployment in ten ASEAN countries from 1999 to 2018. This study provides estimation using the system GMM and panel causality test to determine the effect of GVC thoroughly. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of global value chains on economic output in ASEAN countries. However, the findings also show that global value chains increase unemployment during the observation period. Heterogenous panel non-causality findings suggest that economic output does not affect the level of participation of GVC, but unemployment affects the level of participation in ten …

The Role Of Filipino Conglomerates In The Nation's Development, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Could the country's small and medium companies be the engines of transformation that it needs to attain and sustain the 6.5-8 percent annual growth targeted in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028? I doubt it. They have neither the knowledge nor the financial muscle to do it.

There is another group of companies that could lead the way. These are the large conglomerates of the nation. They have much better knowledge of the economy and financial power. Yet, in general, they do not innovate or export. Instead, they are into non-tradable activities (real estate, banking, distribution, insurance, construction, telecommunications and food). …

Trade, Globalism, And The American System, Johnny B. Davis

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

No abstract provided.

Global Trade Implications Of A Russia And Ukraine-Like Conflict Between China And Taiwan, Jay Morris

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effects of global trade in general from a Russia-Ukraine-like conflict between China and Taiwan as well as the consequences to the worldwide semiconductor industry. A main component of these effects comes from two assumptions: trade between Taiwan and the rest of the world will cease when the conflict occurs and a group of geopolitically aligned and developed countries called the “Allies” will sanction China across a range of product categories. The main effect of the sanctions is the reduction in imports to China in key strategic goods that help in winning military battles and or promote …

The Effect Of Free Trade Agreements On Innovation: Evidence From Us Bilateral Free Trade Agreements With Australia, Chile, Singapore, And South Korea, Cameron Stevens

CMC Senior Theses

This paper combines two datasets to identify the effect of joining a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the United States on innovation in four select countries: Australia, Chile, Singapore, and South Korea. Using an probability concordance developed by Lybbert and Zolas (2014), I map the number of patents recorded by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) into four digit North-American-Industry-Classification-System (NAICS) codes, which are then combined with industry level trade data from the US International Trade Committee (USITC). Using a difference-in-differences regression model, I estimate that joining an FTA increases the number of annual patent filings by 44 in a …

An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Covid-19 On Trade: Evidence From A Small Island African Economy, Z Khan Jaffur, V Tandrayen-Ragoobur, B Seetanah

Journal of African Trade

This study investigates the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures on the trade system of Mauritius for the period January 2010 to June 2021. As the pandemic spread across the globe due to high interconnectedness across countries, authorities has also established stringent health containment measures in the form of restrictions on people and businesses to slow the propagation of the virus. Being a small island economy highly dependent on international trade, Mauritius also faced the brunt of the pandemic which disrupted its economic activities and trade flows with its main trading partners. COVID-19 incidence and lockdown …

A Modern Guide To Tourism Economics, Chapter 1: Introduction, Robertico Croes, Yang Yang

Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This Modern Guide captures the evolution of foundational tenets, theories, frameworks and models that buttressed tourism economics into an evolving discipline, shining light on both new and old approaches. It systematically examines current and future trends and issues related to new economic perspectives, consolidating the notion of tourism economics as a discipline.

The Demise Of The Beef Industry, Natalie Powers

Undergraduate Research Symposium

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a neurological disorder commonly found in cows. The hypothesis for the causation of BSE surrounds a protein known as the prion protein. For the most part, prion proteins are not harmful to cattle. Yet, when it mutates, the protein begins attacking the central nervous system. The protein causes the infected cattle to lose coordination and become violent. This is where it gets its nickname, mad cow disease. The research in this project explores the economic impact of mad cow disease. The reactions from consumers surrounding BSE started the downfall of the economy. It also almost …

Sino-Us Trade War, Erin Torgersen

Senior Honors Projects

China and the United States are unquestionably the two wealthiest economies in the world. These two countries alone account for almost half of the world’s wealth. As these nations battle to become the world's most powerful economy, it is no surprise high tensions have developed to complicate their relationship. China’s economy has been rapidly growing, especially in the last two decades as China is making its way towards the top of the list of strongest economies through its abundance of exports and manufacturing. Alternatively, as the U.S.’s economy has slowly decreased in the last few years, the gap between the …

Biden’S Options: Policy Recommendations On The Us-China Trade War, Marley Taylor Belanger

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

As talks of unprecedented inflation and the long-term impact of the pandemic are on the rise in the United States, it is critical to understand how the foreign policy choices of the US Government ultimately impact its economy. This paper aims to evaluate the impact of the economic tensions between the US and China as a result of the ongoing US-China Trade War. To examine the viability of proposed options, a cost-benefit analysis of Biden’s policy options is implemented based on a framework of escalation, de-escalation, or modification of the current US-China economic policy initiative. The analysis of these proposals …

Trade Liberalization And The Social Determinants Of Health: A Case Study Of Nafta's Impact On Mexico From 1994 To 2005, Maria Trubetskaya

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

Given the increased transnationalization of borders and economic interdependence between countries in the Global North and South, it is imperative to address how these trends impact the health and well being of the populations involved. The conventional neoliberal economic framework, however, falls short in explaining these dynamics due to its overemphasis of proximal determinants of health as direct consequences of commodification and free market activities. In congruence with those theoretical limitations, there is a limited assessment of more distal determinants – the social determinants of health (SDOH) – that are arguably more consequential for health and are interrelated with the …

Terribly Timely Tariffs, Calvin Golliver

WWU Honors College Senior Projects

Mercantilism was an effective system for expanding state power and prosperity in early Modern Europe when three specific conditions existed: weak states, expensive trade, and zero-sum competition. These conditions combined to create a prisoner’s dilemma where all nations engaging in mercantilism was both individually rational and mutually destructive. The significant changes in these three conditions in the late 18th to early 19th century removed the prisoner’s dilemma, making it both individually and mutually rational to engage in a general policy of free trade.

Stuck In The Middle: An Analysis Of Economic Growth And The Technological Intensity Of Exports, Aya Abdel Halim

Theses and Dissertations

Driven by the persistence of some economies’ lower-middle-income status, also known as the middle-income trap, this research aims to identify the relationship between exports and their growth rates. A Cobb-Douglass model augmented by the different types of exports is employed, and the relationship is estimated for a panel of 77 lower-middle-income economies using multiple two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. This research’s contribution to the literature is two-fold: First, it analyzes exports from both an aggregated level (i.e., total exports) as well as at a disaggregated level by the technological intensity of exports. To add, the panel of …

Missouri Soybean Exports And The Democratizing Market Force, David D. Hammons

MSU Graduate Theses

A commonly held assumption of America’s post-Cold War place in the world is that prolonged contact with American capitalism and democracy will lead to the adoption of these systems in all nations that participate in international trade. This paper attempts to verify or disprove that assumption by examining a specific traded commodity between two specific nations, the institutions that support this trade, and the people actively participating in it. The growth of soybean exports from the state of Missouri provides this vehicle for examining the trade history between the United States of America and China, and provides evidence that disproves …

On The Market Failure Of “Missing Pioneers”, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An influential hypothesis states that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum because the first exporter's action creates an informational public good for all subsequent exporters. The hypothesis has been invoked to justify certain types of government interventions. We note, however, that such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is neither too low nor too high. Neither has to hold in the data. We propose a structural estimation framework to evaluate the hypothesis, and estimate the parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. Our key finding is that "missing pioneers" …

Import Restrictions By Eco-Certification: Quantity Effects On Tropical Timber Production, Matthew T. Cole, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Stephen F. Hamilton

Economics

Eco-certification standards are increasingly used by industrial countries to restrict imports of foreign goods produced using unsustainable practices. Import restrictions on eco-certified goods limit the trade of goods to the home country, but also serve to segment global demand into separate regions for conventional goods and certified goods, altering market structure and equilibrium prices in a manner that can work against sustainability goals. In this paper, we examine the effect of recent import restrictions in the US, EU, Canada, and Japan that require tropical timber products produced in Central Africa to be eco-certified. Using panel data of timber production in …

Potential Benefits Of Rcep On The Philippines: Accelerating Recovery Through Trade And Other Economic Opportunities, Caesar Cororaton, Marites Tiongco, Arlene B. Inocencio

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippines, as a member of ASEAN, is part of the RCEP, which is the world’s largest trading block in terms of population and GDP. RCEP was signed on November 15, 2020, by 15 member countries. This policy note discusses the potential effects of RCEP on the Philippines. Using a global CGE model calibrated to the most recent GTAP 10 database, the results indicate that the Philippines will benefit from higher exports, lower consumer prices, higher factor prices, and factor incomes of households. Among the Philippine sectors, the largest positive effects are observed in electronic equipment. Interestingly, the impact on …

Impact Of Infrastructure On Trade: An Empirical Assessment By The Gravity Model In Ecowas, Kossi Edem Baita

Young African Leaders Journal of Development

Increased trade is seen as one of the channels that can boost economic growth in ECOWAS. However, we are witnessing a relative decline in intra-ECOWAS trade. This relative weakness in intra-African trade is said to be due to trade barriers and obstacles, like the quality of infrastructure and transportation costs. In this paper, research is made into understanding the impact of infrastructure quality on trade in ECOWAS countries by referring to the gravity model. Estimates show that bilateral trade increases as the quality of infrastructure improves. Also, the results show that the value of bilateral trade increases with the size …

Firm Productivity And The Variety Of Inputs And Outputs: Evidence From Chinese Trade Data, Ken Onishi, Jianhuan Xu, Guang Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies how the trade liberalization in China changes the firm productivity. We develop a framework to estimate revenue productivity (TFPR) and real productivity (TFPQ) with multi-product firms. We find that the aggregate TFPR increases 30\% from 2002-2007 and TFPQ increases 22\%, suggesting that the observed TFPR increase is mainly driven by real productivity change rather than the markup change. We further decompose the change of productivity into three channels: (1) access to foreign inputs; (2) technology upgrade; (3) resource re-allocation within the firm. We find the most significant channel is the last one, which explains half of the …

Between Lives And Economy: Optimal Covid-19 Containment Policy In Open Economies, Wen-Tai Hsu, Hsuan-Chih Luke Lin, Yang Han

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies optimal containment policy for combating a pandemic in an open-economy context. It does so via quantitative analyses using a model that incorporates a standard epidemiological compartmental model in a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian model of international trade with full-fledged input-output linkages. We devise a novel approach in computing optimal national policies in the long run, and contrast these policies with a baseline in which countries maintain their current policies until vaccine availability. The welfare gains under optimal policies are asymmetric as the gains for the set of countries which should tighten up the containment measures are much larger …

Globalization And Top Income Shares, Lin Ma, Dimitrije Ruzic

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper documents empirically that access to global markets is associated with a higher executive-to-worker pay ratio within the firm. It then uses China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization as a trade shock to show that firms that exported to China prior to 2001 subsequently exported more, grew larger, and grew more unequal in terms of executive-to-worker pay. To evaluate analytically and quantitatively the impacts of globalization on top income inequality, this paper builds a model with heterogeneous firms, occupational choice, and executive compensation. In the model, executive compensation grows with the size of the firm, while the …

How A Pandemic Crisis Serves As A Predicament In Trade Merchandises?- A Global Panorama, V Yamuna Ph.D., Source Marie

International Review of Business and Economics

Trade and commerce occupies a vital part in burgeoning of a nation’s economy, which thereby is responsible for thriving of several global merchandises. However, the current COVID-19 scenario has casted a dark spell upon the business industry and caused the rate of imports and exports to plummet drastically. Global economists predicted an 18.5 % drop in trade, on regard with the second quarter of 2020. This precipitous decline would be attributed as horrendously enormous on record concerning the history of modern trade. As every cloud has a silver lining, the experts forecasted a much lower decline which was eventually inhibited. …

The Impacts Of Covid-19 On Global Trade, T. Ponshunmugaraja Ph.D.

International Review of Business and Economics

As the coronavirus emerged in china and spread, globally, authorities have acted to limit its spread. Experience with similar diseases reveals that while the human costs are significant, the bulk of the economic costs are due to the preventive behaviour of individuals and the transmission control policies of governments. Meanwhile, the dollar value of world merchandise exports in 2019 fell by 3% to US $18.89 trillion. In contrast, world commercial services trade increased in 2019, with exports in dollar terms rising by 2% to US $ 6.03 trillion. Early indications of the economic costs and the magnitude of estimated impacts …

Economic Sanctions And The Survival Of Autocratic Regimes, Colin Micheal Brundege

Senior Projects Spring 2020

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Social Studies of Bard College.