Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Vietnam’S Gdp: Re-Assessing Growth Rate And Identifying An Alternative Indicator, My Linh D. Nguyen

Honors Theses

Since the economic reform known as Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986, Vietnam has changed from one of the world’s poorest to a middle-income country in one generation (USAID, 2022). The country has consistently registered high and stable economic growth since the reform, averaging 6.3% from 1985 to 2021 (World Bank, 2022). High growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is good news, but it has also raised questions that go both ways. On one side, there is much speculation that the government of Vietnam has manipulated economic statistics, compared to the case of China and India. As quoted in Kinh …

Factors Affecting Graduation With Honors: A Case Study In Business, William Litzinger

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Undergraduate Honors Theses

Many first-year college students elect to enroll in their university’s honors program. These programs offer students many educational benefits not provided to non-honors students, such as smaller class sizes, priority registration, and added faculty interaction. However, of the students that enter the university as an honors student, many fail to complete their honors program. Researchers have documented completion rates as low as 18.45% (Campbell and Fuqua, 2008). So why are honors graduation rates so low? In this study, variables were examined that the literature suggests affects honors graduation rates (High School GPA, ACT/SAT scores, AP credits, GPA 1^st term …

Occupational Licensing And Immigrants, Hugh Cassidy, Tennecia Dacass

Economics Faculty Scholarship

This study examines the incidence and impact of occupational licensing on immigrants using two sources of data: the Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that immigrants are significantly less likely to have a license than similar natives and that this gap is largest for men, workers in the highest education level, and nonnaturalized immigrants. The licensing rate increases with years since migration and shows large variation by immigrants’ region of origin. A lack of English proficiency reduces the probability that an immigrant has a license. The wage premium from having a license is …

Power And Statistical Significance In Securities Fraud Litigation, Jill E. Fisch, Jonah B. Gelbach

All Faculty Scholarship

Event studies, a half-century-old approach to measuring the effect of events on stock prices, are now ubiquitous in securities fraud litigation. In determining whether the event study demonstrates a price effect, expert witnesses typically base their conclusion on whether the results are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, a threshold that is drawn from the academic literature. As a positive matter, this represents a disconnect with legal standards of proof. As a normative matter, it may reduce enforcement of fraud claims because litigation event studies typically involve quite low statistical power even for large-scale frauds.

This paper, written for …

Analyzing Competitive Balance In Professional Sport, Kevin Alwell

Honors Scholar Theses

In this paper we review several measures to statistically analyze competitive balance and report which leagues have a wider variance of performance amongst its competitors. Each league seeks to maintain high levels of parity, making matches and overall season more unpredictable and appealing to the general audience. Here we quantify competitive advantage across major sports leagues in numbers using several statistical methods in order for leagues to optimize their revenue.

Importance And Role Of Ziyarah Tourism In Raising Tourism Potential Of Bukhara Region, Bakhtiyor Nematovich Navruz-Zoda, Sultan Nuraliogli Najmiddinov

Scientific reports of Bukhara State University

This article outlines the importance of Ziyarah tourism and positive changes for the development of touristic potential in Bukhara region.In particular, related Ziyorah tourism in Bukhara there has been taken one of the measures , the I-International Ziyarah Tourism Forum, and the signing of the Bukhara Declaration this year. As well as it provides information about the tourist potential of the region and the foreigners' recognition and, there are conclusions regarding the sharp increase in the number of tourists in the region in the forthcoming years.

A Statistical Analysis Of Economic Perceptions In The 2015 United Kingdom General Election, Amarvir Singh-Bal Mr.

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper characterises the vote which took place in the United Kingdom's (U.K.) 2015 General Election as an ‘accountability instrument.’ In doing so, the research interrogates which sections of the electorate hold the incumbent government more accountable for economic outcomes between the 2010 and 2015 U.K. General Elections. The Rational Choice Theory and the Michigan Model are used in this study to present two interlinked, and yet distinct, hypotheses – that less politically informed and non-partisan voters are more likely to hold the government accountable for economic performances; compared to the politically informed and partisan voters within the electorate. Implementing …

Promoting An Ethical Economics Classroom Through Partnership, Simon Halliday

Economics: Faculty Publications

In teaching economics, the instructor scaffolds what they teach on an implicitly assumed or explicitly recognized ethical vision. Such a vision holds true even as economists often separate “positive economics” from “normative economics,” claiming positive economics finds its basis in data and theory whereas normative economics concerns the ought or ethical statements that data or theory may imply (Davis, 2016). Economics, furthermore, suffers from lack of diversity: from white men constituting the majority of researchers and teachers, to textbooks that fail to show the diverse range of real people participating in the economy (Aerni, Bartlett, Lewis, McGoldrick, & Shackelford, 1999). …

Forecasting Labor Force Participation At The Regional Level In The United States: The Case Of Maine, Maryam Kashkooli

Honors College

This project attempts to investigate the future of labor force participation in Maine using an econometric forecasting approach. Forecasting has become an increasingly popular form of statistical analysis which uses historical distributions to help estimate future distributions of econometric models. There exists extensive literature on forecasting employment, however the literature on forecasting labor force participation is relatively small. I adapt existing econometric models and make use of time series information on sociodemographic factors such as age and net migration in order to determine how Maine’s changing demographic structure is affecting its labor force and how these effects will carry on …

Does Player Performance Outside Of Major League Baseball Translate To The Mlb?, Ian Vogt

Honors Theses

Statistical analysis has transformed the way front offices across Major League Baseball manage the rosters of their teams. However, much of this statistical analysis is limited to evaluating players playing in the American major league environment. Little has been done in the way of using statistical analysis to evaluate how performance translates from league-to-league, and the market for international and college players remains highly inefficient, despite expansion of these player pools. My study is an attempt to make this market a more efficient one.

I measure the correlation between performance in two top international baseball leagues (Nippon Professional Baseball and …

Screening Stocks Based On The Rational Approach To Decision-Making, Demetri Kantarelis

Economics, Finance and International Business Department Faculty Works

I propose a rational approach (RA) to decision-making process which, I believe, can be adapted as an alternative methodology for screening stocks. Subject to various constraints (e.g., budget, time horizon, market scope, etc.), the proposed methodology requires the consideration of several alternatives and criteria, assignment of weights of importance, and grading. Undoubtedly, decisions based on the RA ought to be characterized as rationally subjective. Naturally, the degree of rationality ought to be dependent on the capability of the decision maker to legally collect information based on the asset’s history, present performance of the issuing firm, and future forecasts; of course, …

The Effect Of Unemployment On Democratic Warfare, Andres Rakower

Honors Undergraduate Theses

This study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many starting effects and assumptions that were accounted for such …

In Search Of The Criterion Standard Test In Diagnostic Testing, Thanos D. Kantarelis, Demetri Kantarelis

Economics, Finance and International Business Department Faculty Works

Given a certain technology or procedure for diagnostic testing, different cutoff points produce different sensitivity and specificity rates. The cutoff point that generates highest sensitivity and specificity establishes the Criterion Standard Test (otherwise known as the Gold Standard Test). If, subject to good reason, a new testing technology or procedure emerges, the optimum cutoff point associated with it may generate higher sensitivity and specificity and thus a new improved Criterion Standard Test. Various cutoff selection methodologies have been proposed, all based on Euclidean geometry, involving the so-called Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Our purpose in this paper is to recommend …

Econometrics In The Courtroom, Daniel L. Rubinfeld

Daniel L. Rubinfeld

No abstract provided.

2015 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption And Prices, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Statistics of Gross Domestic Product and Expenditure at current Purchaser's prices for the year 2015.

Maritime Accounts In The European Union: Coping With Limited Information, Regis Kalaydjian

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The European Commission's effort to define the scope and components of the maritime economy was initially motivated by the "Integrated Maritime Policy" (2007). This policy package, principally based on coastal environment protection, maritime safety and security, and the European marine observation and data network, also included the development of an EU-wide economic and social database on maritime activities. The IMP database (2009) used experience from EU member states in terms of maritime database development, and conversely was an opportunity to update national contributions.

Later, two other packages contributed to broadening EC's approach. 1) The "Marine Strategy Framework Directive" (2008) was …

Modeling Uncertainty In Climate Change: A Multi‐Model Comparison, Kenneth Gillingham, William D. Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Geoffrey Blanford, Valentina Bosetti, Peter Christensen, Haewon Mcjeon

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO 2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail …

Measuring Gender Difference In Information Sharing Using Network Analysis: The Case Of The Austrian Interlocking Directorship Network In 2009, Carlo Drago, Livia Amidani Aliberti, Davide Carbonai

Carlo Drago

In recent literature a relevant problem has been the relationship between career/personal contact networks and different career paths. In addition the recent advances in social capital theory have shown the way in which networks impact on personal careers. In particular women’s careers appear to be negatively affected by the informational network structure. The main contribution of this work is to propose empirical evidence of this phenomenon by considering the gendered directorship network with relation to Austria and to show the structural differences by gender in the network. By using community detection techniques we have found various communities in which females …

Using Statistics To Run A Public Procurement Office, Bryane Michael

Bryane Michael (bryane.michael@stcatz.ox.ac.uk)

These are the slides for the using statistics course.

Putting The Trial Penalty On Trial, David S. Abrams

All Faculty Scholarship

The "trial penalty" is a concept widely accepted by all the major actors in the criminal justice system: defendants, prosecutors, defense attorneys, court employees, and judges. The notion is that defendants receive longer sentences at trial than they would have through plea bargain, often substantially longer. The concept is intuitive: longer sentences are necessary in order to induce settlements and without a high settlement rate it would be impossible for courts as currently structured to sustain their immense caseload. While intuitively appealing, this view of the trial penalty is completely at odds with economic prediction. Since both prosecutors and defendants …

Unguaranteed Money In The Nfl: A Useful Tool For Risky Players, Wayne Simpson

Honors Theses

This study is investigating whether or not the percentage of non‐guaranteed money or length in NFL contracts reflects how risky players are as judged by past statistics. While sports economists have completed numerous studies on the motivational power of incentives, a study trying to identify the riskiness of players to lead to the strategic use of non‐guaranteed money and length of contract is a new idea. Contract details were gathered for running backs and wide receivers on NFL rosters for the 2012 season from rotoworld.com. Players who were still on rookie contracts and who were primarily special teams players were …

The Stock Market Reaction To Class Action Filings Post Pslra, Mark S. Klock

Mark S Klock

Using a substantially larger sample than has been used before, and a sample that includes the Great Financial Crisis and its ensuing recession, I investigate the stock market reaction to securities class action filings following the enactment of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act through the first quarter of 2012. I find that on average, even after adjusting for market downturns, there is a statistically significant negative abnormal return at the time of filing. There is also a statistically significant negative abnormal return during the weeks preceding the filing indicating that the market partially, but not fully, anticipates these filings. …

Quality Statistics In Banking Reforms For National Transformation, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper outlines the important role of statistics in aiding proper planning and achievement of sustainable economic development. The paper elaborates the importance of investing in quality and reliable statistics for policy design and implementation and stresses the vital role statistical information play in effective operation in both private and public sector in every economy. The role of quality, reliable and timely information to a well-functioning financial system and as a guide to monetary policy making is illustrated in the paper. The paper credits accurate statistical information to the success of the Nigerian banking sector reform. However, it suggests that …

An Economic Analysis Of Somali Piracy Deterrence Strategies Within The Context Of The Economic Theory Of Crime And Punishment, Ryan Castello

Honors Theses

From 2006 to 2010, the number of reported piracy incidents perpetrated by Somali pirates, has increased from 19 to 212 per year, an alarming trend for the international shipping industry. This paper examines the increasing number of pirate attacks within the context of the theory developed in, Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach (Becker, 1968). This paper demonstrates the supply of pirates is a function of probability of punishment, severity of penalty, as well as institutional factors. This research entails a theoretical discussion, and an analysis of the available data on Somali piracy. The theoretical discussion combines theory with current …

Evidence Of The Shaming Effect: A Look At Ncaa Football, Holmes Hill

All Theses

This paper addresses the general theory of shaming and the effects it has on criminal behavior. There has been much debate of the use of shaming in the criminal justice system and the effects it has on criminal behavior. The lack of quantitative data has limited such debates to theory without evidence. This paper applies the theory to NCAA football statistics to study the behavior of football players on the field, to explain the way people and how people respond to shaming. The analysis is based on seasonal team statistics of all division I football teams in correlation with a …

A Note On The Indeterminacy And Arbitrariness Of Pena’S Method Of Construction Of Synthetic Indicators, Sudhanshu K. Mishra

Sudhanshu K Mishra

In this paper we demonstrate that Pena’s method of construction of a synthetic indicator is very sensitive to the order in which the constituent variables (whose linear aggregation yields the synthetic indicator) are arranged. Since m number of constituent variables may be arranged in m-factorial ways, even a moderately large m can give rise to a very large number of synthetic indicators from which one cannot choose the one which best represents the constituent variables. Given that an analyst has too little information as to the order in which a sizeable number of constituent variables must be arranged so as …

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

Statistics For National Development, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Good statistics that has been collected according to agreed good practices are crucial as a tool for development. Gross domestic product (GDP) and other measures of economic activity such as Gross National Income (GNI) together with their individual components, show how the economy is responding to government policy and other influences. The balance of payments can demonstrate the requirement for policy adjustments and is also one of the indicators scrutinised by potential foreign investors in the country. Agricultural statistics clearly have implications for longer-term planning, particularly if they show a move away from the land into urban areas or a …

Big Macs And Eigenfactor Scores: Don't Let The Correlation Coefficients Fool You, Jevin D. West, Carl T. Bergstrom, Theodore C. Bergstrom

Ted C Bergstrom

A recent article by Phil Davis suggested that the Eigenvalue metric does adds little useful information to the more simply calculated measure of total citations published by the ISI. This paper argues that Davis's claim is an instance of a classic statistical fallacy of spurious correlation. Based on an analysis of the entire 2006 ISI Journal Citation Reports, we show that there are statistically and economically significant differences between the Eigenfactor metrics and the ISI's impact factor and total citations.

Temporal Changes In The Parameters Of Statistical Distribution Of Journal Impact Factor, Sudhanshu K. Mishra

Sudhanshu K Mishra

Statistical distribution of Journal Impact Factor (JIF) is characteristically asymmetric and non-mesokurtic. Even the distribution of log10(JIF) exhibits conspicuous skewness and non-mesokurticity. In this paper we estimate the parameters of Johnson SU distribution fitting to the log10(JIF) data for 10 years, 1999 through 2008, and study the temporal variations in those estimated parameters. We also study ‘over-the-samples stability’ in the estimated parameters for each year by the method of re-sampling close to bootstrapping. It has been found that log10(JIF) is Pearson-IV distributed. Johnson SU distribution fits very well to the data and yields parameters stable over the samples. We conclude …