Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Business Cycles, Exchange Rates, And Commodity Prices In Transition Economies, Salome Giorgadze

Theses and Dissertations

My dissertation studies macroeconomic connectedness in the transition economies through the business cycle and exchange rate channels and the downside risk relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates of developing economies. My first two chapters focus on the transition economies of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the CIS, a group of former Soviet republics, and my third chapter considers other developing countries too. The first chapter examines macroeconomic connectedness in the CIS region through business cycle synchronization. I investigate the role of the global factor and the CIS factor in evolution of business cycles in the CIS countries by applying …

Exchange Rates, Oil Prices And World Stock Returns, Andre V. Mollick, Hamid Sakaki

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines responses of 14 major currency/USD pairs to two global factors (oil and world equity returns) from January 1999 to July 2017, a period comprising the global financial crisis and oil price boom and collapse. With global equity markets advancing, risk tolerance increases and oil and stock markets impact currencies under two methodologies: transmission of shocks and mean-variance approaches. Vector autoregressions (VARs) suggest large and statistically significant responses: commodity currencies strongly appreciate following positive oil price shocks and depreciate with positive global equity shocks. GARCH models provide similar qualitative results with coefficients typically larger for global equity returns …

Toward A More Universal Currency: The Impact Of The Clearing Mechanism On Developing Economies, Evan Ross Kaderbeck

Applied Economics Theses

Toward a More Universal Currency:

The Impact of the Clearing Mechanism on Developing Economies

As part of a broader plan to reform the system of international finance, experts have indicated the need to modify the system of international money. They point to problems such as the difficulties faced by developing countries in obtaining hard currency needed for imports, or the flows of hot money which make the financing of long-term development projects difficult. Some have called for a form of universal currency, used only in international trade. Developing nations especially need access to a clearing mechanism which would eliminate the …

Empirical Analysis Of China’S Exchange Rate And Macroeconomic Policy, Jia Ji

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the effects of exchange rate and macroeconomic policy in China. It consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of monetary transmission mechanism. As China’s domestic financial markets deepen and develop further toward a market-based system, the country’s monetary policy transmission should continue to improve in the sense that the policy instrument’s influence on economic conditions increases in magnitude and stabilized across time. Using a short-term key interest rate as a standard monetary policy tool and time-varying parameter techniques, this study empirically demonstrates that China’s monetary policy framework is in the midst of transitioning to a …

Three Essays On International Economics And Finance, Juan Antonio Montecino

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation studies the macroeconomic and social impacts of two increasingly common macroeconomic policies: restrictions on international capital mobility -- capital controls -- and so-called unconventional monetary policy -- often referred to as “quantitative easing.” The consensus view is that capital controls can effectively lengthen the maturity composition of capital inflows and increase the independence of monetary policy but are not generally effective at reducing net inflows and influencing the real exchange rate. The first essay presents empirical evidence that although capital controls may not directly affect the long-run equilibrium level of the real exchange rate, they may enable disequilibria …

Regional Economic Integration In Mercosur: The Role Of Real And Financial Sectors, Hem C. Basnet, Gyan Pradhan

EKU Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This study explores economic interdependence in Mercosur by examining common trends and common cycles among key macro-variables representing both the real and financial sectors of the economy. The serial correlation common features test reveals that the key macroeconomic variables (real output, investment, and intra-regional trade) share common trends in the long run suggesting that macroeconomic interdependence in the Mercosur economies is strong. The exchange rates demonstrate co-movement in the long run as they share a single common trend. These finding suggests that these economies cannot swing away from long-run equilibrium for an extended duration; they will be brought together by …

Essays On The Law Of One Price In Financial Markets And The Recent Financial Crisis, Igor Sorkin

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Essay 1: The theory of the Law of One Price (LOOP) is one of the most important theories in International Economics. I use financial markets to revisit the validity of the LOOP in the short run, and then extend the analysis into the long-run to examine whether events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 can lead to the failure of the LOOP or worsen deviations from it. Using the data on Canadian companies cross-listed on the New York Stock Exchange, I find strong support that the LOOP holds in a cross-sectional framework despite the fact that the sample includes …

Maintenance Of Value In The General Account And Valuation Of The Sdr In The Special Drawing Account Of The Imf, Robert C. Effros

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

Exchange Rate Volatility And Its Effect On Stock Market Volatility, K. Kennedy, Farrokh Nourzad

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper investigates empirically the effect of volatility of the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the euro on U.S. stock market volatility while controlling for a number of drivers of stock return volatility. Using a GARCH(1, 1) model and using weekly data covering the period from the week of January 1, 1999 through the week of January 25, 2010, it is found that the 9/11 terrorist attack, bear markets, fluctuations in jobless claims, and negative equity market returns increase financial volatility. On the other hand, no conclusive results are found regarding the effect of fluctuations in M2, or …

The Recent Growth Of International Reserves In Developing Economies: A Monetary Perspective, Gonçalo Pina

Economics

The massive accumulation of international reserves in developing economies is a puzzling recent development in the world economy. This paper studies reserve accumulation as the outcome of a simple model in which the central bank smooths inflation. I explore the view that central banks accumulate reserves to face large fiscal shocks that need monetary financing. Central bank revenues are obtained through inflation, but inflation is distortionary. As a result, the central bank optimally accumulates international reserves in order to spread the costs associated with inflation over time. A simple numerical exercise for an average developing economy using data between 1970 …

Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the long run relationship between exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria during 1990Q1 – 2012Q4. We confirm the existence of threshold cointegration between the variables in Nigeria, as against linear cointegration. Consequently, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. Model results indicate that cointegration between the variables occurs only when the equilibrium error exceeds an estimated threshold parameter of 0.52. Having partitioned the TVECM into two regimes based on the obtained threshold, we find that the error correction coefficients of the exchange rate in the two regimes are not …

Drug Violence, The Peso, And Northern Border Retail Activity In Mexico, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

Exchange rate fluctuations and international business cycles may acutely affect retail sales in border regions where residents have the option of shopping in the neighboring country. This study examines the determinants of retail sales in six cities located along Mexico’s northern border. Retail activity in these cities is found to increase in tandem with real depreciations of the peso, lower unemployment rates in neighboring US counties, and increased border crossings. Taken together, these results suggest that cross-border shopping contributes to retail activity in the northern border region of Mexico. The opportunities for cross-border shopping may also condition the impact of …

Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises tests. The tests are distribution-free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The article develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, nonmartingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional heteroscedasticity …

Reexamining What Survey Data Say About Currency Risk And Irrationality Using The Cointegrated Var, Joshua Stillwagon

Faculty Scholarship

This paper reports new evidence of a time-varying risk premium, and against the usual interpretation of irrationality, in survey data for three major currency markets. Using the cointegrated VAR to better focus on the issue of persistence, the deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity are found to be non-stationary implying a time-varying risk premium. Further, the "relationship" between the forecast error and the lagged forward discount, which has been interpreted as implying irrationality, is a spurious regression, being non-stationary at the 1% level. In fact, the forecast error and forward discount do not even appear to share the same order of …

Testing The Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C.B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramér-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for their implementation and so are well suited to practical work. The paper develops limit theory for the tests under the null and shows that the tests are consistent against a wide class of nonlinear, non-martingale processes. Simulations show that the tests have good finite sample properties in comparison with other tests particularly under conditional …

The Sustainability Of The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Revisiting Mann's Rule, Radhames A. Lizardo, Andre V. Mollick

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using quarterly data from 1973 to 2008, we provide evidence that current account (CA) deficits exceeding 4.2% of GDP (\"Mann's rule\") do have a significant lowering effect on the U.S. dollar value against major currencies. Controlling for inflation, public debt, and a broad trade weighted index, excessive CA deficits have a negative long-run impact on the USD. Along the transition path, much faster speeds of adjustment to long-run equilibrium are found when current account deficits in excess of Mann's rule are considered: 20% of the deviations from the long-run equilibrium are corrected in a month against 8% or 9% without …

Evaluating Currency Convergence In East Asia, Lee Lim

Research outputs pre 2011

There have been increased debates among economic analysts and policy makers on the role of financial globalization in economic growth and the importance of openness to international trade followed the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009. The global crisis has affected both the developed and emerging-market economies in East Asia where major stock markets plunged along with the US market and many currencies also fell against the US dollar. Although the impact of the US-led GFC was less severe than the 1997-1998 financial crisis, a large empirical literature has emerged examining the future directions of monetary and exchange rate arrangements …

Câmbio De Longo Prazo Do Mil-Réis. Uma Abordagem Empírica Referente Às Taxas Contra A Libra Esterlina E O Dólar (1795-1913), Heitor Moura Filho

Heitor Moura Filho

Short-term and long-term exchange rates of the Brazilian imperial Mil-Reis to the US Dollar are estimated from 1795 to 1913

Price-Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We characterize the relationship between ex post exchange rate depreciation and the interest differential for a set of countries that spans both developed and emerging market economies. The measured ex post uncovered interest differentials in terms of both levels and absolute values are then related to measures of trade and financial openness, financial development, government budget balances, institutional development, and exchange rate regimes. We find that there is wide diversity in the coefficient relating depreciations and interest differentials. Some of these differing results can be attributed to differences in inflation volatility, financial development, trade openness, capital account openness, legal development, …

Trade, Production Networks And The Exchange Rate, Sven W. Arndt, Alex Huemer '99

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

This paper examines the effect of cross-border production sharing on trade and exchange-rate behavior. When a country’s exports contain imported components, changes in exchange rates tend to have offsetting effects on imports and exports. Imports may fall, remain unchanged or even rise with depreciation, depending on the share of domestic value-added in exports. The effect of domestic and foreign GDP on imports and exports is also altered by production sharing. These behavior patterns are identified in trade in motor vehicles between the United States and Mexico with the aid of OLS and VEC techniques.

The Relevance Of Inflation And Exchange Rate Risk For Monetary Convergence To The Eurozone, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study places a strong emphasis on the ability of Central European Countries to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums on their path of monetary convergence to the eurozone. A model of the nexus between both risk premiums is presented along with the recent evidence supporting well-coordinated interactions between these risk premiums for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis implies that monetary policies based on direct inflation targeting are likely to contain these risk premiums in the candidate countries and can be effectively used during the remaining period of their preparations for entering the euro area.

Fractal Structure In The Chinese Yuan-Us Dollar Rate, Raul Matsushita, Iram Gleria, Annibal Figueiredo, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

Price changes of the Chinese yuan-US dollar rate are found to display a Sierpinski triangle in an Iterative Function System clumpiness test. This fractal structure commonly emerges in “the chaos game”, where randomness coexists with deterministic rules. We show that a threshold model with four states, two deterministic and two stochastic is able to replicate the properties of the yuan-dollar changes in general, and the Sierpinski triangle in particular.

The Pros And Cons Of North American Monetary Integration, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

This study examines the major arguments for and against enhanced monetary integration in North America, with particular emphasis on the Canadian perspective. In this context, the question is whether the current floating rate regime should be replaced by greater fixity of exchange rates in relation to the U.S. dollar. While the choice among fixed rate systems is wide in principle, for practical purposes the Canadian debate centres on the pros and cons of monetary union. As other countries in the northern hemisphere may be reluctant to embrace monetary union, the following discussion also examines other potential candidate regimes, including currency …

Classroom Guide To The Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

The article presents a classroom-suited version of the equilibrium exchange rate model of Stockman (1987) that features Cobb-Douglas functional forms for both production and utility, and considers foreign exchange intervention explicitly.

2002-3 Inflation Targets Versus International Monetary Integration: A Canadian Perspective, David Laidler

Economic Policy Research Institute. EPRI Working Papers

No abstract provided.

A Brief Overview Of The Current State Of Exchange Rate Modeling, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

The paper provides a brief overview of the current state of exchange rate modeling.

Chaotic Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

This article generalizes the results shown in De Grauwe, Dewachter, and Embrechts (1993) in a more sophisticated framework. In their model, the speculative dynamics resulting from the interaction between chartists and fundamentalists are incorporated into a Dornbusch-style model to generate a chaotic nominal exchange rate. Here the model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1996) replaces the Dornbusch model, and chaotic solutions are still shown to be possible for sensible parameter values.

Chaos And Exchange Rates, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

This paper surveys the literature on chaos in exchange rates.

The Role Of Foreign Exchange Intervention In A Chaotic Dornbusch Model, Sergio Da Silva

Sergio Da Silva

Exchange-Rate Policies In Central Europe And Monetary Union, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Looks at the relationship between exchange-rate and monetary policies in transition economies (TEs) in central Europe bent on becoming part of the European Union. Review of practiced targets of monetary policy in response to the requirements of monetary union; Question of whether or not candidates will resort to a final currency devaluation; Suggestions for adjustments in short- and long-term monetary policy.