Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Sudden Escalation In Average Fastball Velocity: A Biomechanical And Cost-Benefit Analysis, Jacob Meiners

Capstone Projects

Average fastball velocity throughout Major League Baseball has increased dramatically over the previous 15 years. This research examines the factors leading to this increase and provides a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether throwing consistently at high velocities is worth the injury risks, compared to financial benefits, from the player perspective. Additionally, this analysis examines if paying hard-throwing pitchers is worth the monetary risk from a team executive’s perspective, due to increases in leaguewide throwing injury rates. The production of advanced motion capture technology to obtain real-time biomechanical data has given way to the optimization of pitchers’ biomechanics, with the goals …

The Impact Of Signing Bonuses, Age, And Country On Mlb Success: Evaluating Investment Returns In The Mlb International Amateur Free Agent Market, Elliot Wolf

Honors Theses

MLB’s International Amateur Free Agent Market provides teenagers across the world opportunities to sign, develop, and potentially fulfill their dreams of playing in the MLB. It also allows teams to sign players at young ages, increasing the amount of time players can develop within a team’s minor league system. While signing bonus decision-making is backed up by a team’s scouts and data, the signing bonus a player receives is rarely a reflection of their future value. I argue that teams are not spending this money optimally. However, in an environment where players have low acquisition costs and volatile performance outcomes, …

The Effects Of Rising Fastball Velocities On Injuries And Hbp In Mlb, William Campbell

Economics Theses

This paper analyzes the literature surrounding the relationship between MLB pitcher velocity, pitcher injury time, and hit batsmen which indicates that pitcher velocity is likely the cause for higher injury rates and an increase in batters hit. Two linear regression models were used to examine both of these relationships. The data set included average pitcher fastball velocity, number of pitches, time injured, and the number of hit batters for pitchers who threw more than one hundred fastballs in any year between 2015-2022. The first regression found no significance between velocity and time injured however the relationship was positive. The second …

Hot Boy Summer? Analyzing Managerial Reactions To Season-Long Fluctuating Player Performance In Major League Baseball, John Rodgers Hood

Honors Projects

This paper suggests numerical weights that a Major League Baseball (MLB) manager may use when comparing player performance across multiple past performance periods to predict future performance. By the end of the MLB regular season, current season performance becomes more predictive than prior season performance for pitchers but not hitters. After estimating weights for different past time periods of performance, this paper compares the weights with how managers value performance in high-stakes situations across these same time periods. I find that MLB managers overreact to recent performance by both hitters and pitchers in postseason settings.

Would “Robot Umpires” Reduce Discrimination? Measuring Racial Bias In Major League Baseball Umpires, Hank Snowdon

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing thirteen years of Major League Baseball pitch-tracking and play-by-play data, this study investigates racial discrimination by umpires when making pitch calling decisions. Two models are formulated, one that predicts the probability of a strike erroneously being called a ball (batter favoritism) and one that predicts the probability of a ball erroneously being called a strike (pitcher favoritism). The probabilities are modeled as a function of whether or not the pitcher’s or batter’s race is the same as the umpire’s. With over 3 million pitch observations, multiple sub-sample and time trend analyses are conducted to examine with whom the discrimination …

Technology In Major League Baseball: 2017 Houston Astros, Prisoner’S Dilemma, And Behavioral Solutions, Spencer Kinyon

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper compares and contrasts the economic model for baseball in the 20th century without technology and the economic model for baseball in the 21st century with technology. Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have evolved to use technology to improve the performance of players on the field. This paper explores the economics of penalties in MLB and how teams are penalized for their use of illegal technology. In the 2017 season, the Houston Astros used illegal technology that led the team to win the World Series. This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether or not a team should …

Bringing Business Back To The Ballpark, David Drea

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This study uses ordinary least squares and quantile regressions to discover the determinants of total attendance for Major League Baseball teams. Furthermore, the study seeks to discover whether or not the average time length of a baseball game has any significant effect on total attendance. The data ranges from the year 2016 until 2018 and includes all thirty professional teams. The purpose of the quantile regression is to gain a deeper understanding of total attendance’s determinants and to see which distributions in the data are most affected. The results were that home runs are a significant stimulant in attendance and …

Does Player Performance Outside Of Major League Baseball Translate To The Mlb?, Ian Vogt

Honors Theses

Statistical analysis has transformed the way front offices across Major League Baseball manage the rosters of their teams. However, much of this statistical analysis is limited to evaluating players playing in the American major league environment. Little has been done in the way of using statistical analysis to evaluate how performance translates from league-to-league, and the market for international and college players remains highly inefficient, despite expansion of these player pools. My study is an attempt to make this market a more efficient one.

I measure the correlation between performance in two top international baseball leagues (Nippon Professional Baseball and …

Beyond Moneyball: Changing Compensation In Mlb, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Jonathan A. Lanning

Economics Department Working Papers

This study examines the changes in player compensation in Major League Baseball during the last three decades. Specifically, we examine the extent to which recently documented changes in players’ compensation structure based on certain types of productivity fits in with the longer term trends in compensation, and identify the value of specific output activities in different time periods. We examine free agent contracts in three-year periods across three decades and find changes to which players’ performance measures are significantly rewarded in free agency. We find evidence that the compensation strategies of baseball teams increased the rewards to “power” statistics like …

Compensating Against Turnover: Managers' Talent Retention Decisions In Major League Baseball Under A Budget Constraint, Emma Knoesen

Scripps Senior Theses

From 1997 to 1999 and 2003 to the present, Major League Baseball has had a luxury tax on high payroll teams. This paper analyzes the impact of the tax as a budget constraint on teams’ ability to reward and retain high performing players. In contrast to other papers, we use wins above replacement (WAR), a popular sabermetrics statistic, to measure performance. Using this metric, we quantify the number of top performers, how this performance is rewarded with salary, and how salary impacts players’ mobility decisions. We conclude that when using WAR, the distribution of performance is not heavy tailed and …

An Analysis Of Sports Markets: Franchise Relocation, League Expansion, And Fan Bases, Evan Opperman

CMC Senior Theses

Through sports, cities can reach fans from all different walks of life to rally together and support a competitive cause. Each city’s fan base is distinct—with their individual personalities being reflective of the culture and environment of the home city. The intent of this paper is to study the effect of multiple on and off field factors as they relate to attendance across three major professional sports in city markets. This will determine which city markets have the strongest, or weakest, overall fan bases. Ultimately, this study will end with an educated recommendation for professional sports franchise relocation or a …

Dependency Theory Reloaded: Exploring Baseball In The Dominican Republic, Sarah Nass

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

Latin America’s presence in Major League Baseball has grown rapidly in recent years. The increase of players from the Dominican Republic can no longer be ignored. But why is Major League Baseball in the Dominican Republic? What has been the impact of Major League Baseball’s player development strategies and tactics on the people and culture of the Dominican Republic? Does the Dominican Republic need Major League Baseball to be successful? An ethnographic study was conducted in an attempt to answer these questions. This study examines the relationship between Major League Baseball and the Dominican Republic. Examining this relationship using the …

Paying For Performance At The Plate: An Investigation Of Variable Pay Systems In Major League Baseball, Mitchell S. Bremermann

CMC Senior Theses

Previous empirical research on variable pay systems have suggested that possible gains can come from paying for performance, but highlight the difficulty firms face in measuring performance. Using contracts signed in Major League Baseball’s free agent market, I find that over the 2010-2014 period, teams utilized variable pay schemes with players that were more productive or signaled greater risk, either in their contract terms or via overspecialization. However, not all forms of risk signaling were correlated with greater use of performance incentives, including age and proxies for injury history. These findings have significant implications for labor practices more broadly, as …

Top Of The Order: Modeling The Optimal Locations Of Minor League Baseball Teams, W. Coleman Conley

Undergraduate Economic Review

Over the last twenty-five years, minor league baseball franchises have defined firm mobility. Revisiting the work of Michael C. Davis (2006), I construct a logistic regression model to predict which cities house minor league baseball teams. Six variables are tested for inclusion in the model, including population, income level, the number of major-league professional sports teams in a city, five-year population change, and distance from the closest professional team. Based on the model's predicted probabilities, cities are ranked in order of highest probability of having a team at each of the different levels from Class A to Class AAA.

Chin Music: A Statistical Analysis Of Retaliation Pitches In Major League Baseball, Peter Jurewicz

All Theses

This paper is focused on hit batsmen in Major League Baseball from the 2008 season through August 20th of the 2013 season. More specifically, this paper examines the characteristics of retaliation pitches and attempts to determine the intent of the pitcher. The paper also takes into account moral hazard and cost-benefit analysis of hitting an opposing batsman. There has been a vast amount of literature in economics with regard to hit batsmen in Major League Baseball. However, very few of these papers have been able to evaluate economic theories in Major League Baseball using Pitchf/x data. Pitchf/x technology became fully …

Explaining The Wage Differential Between American And Latino Baseball Players In Major League Baseball, Kristopher Kusterman

All Theses

This paper examines the wage differential between Latino and American baseball players in the Major Leagues. First, a literature review is prepared to look at how, historically, economists have gone about comparing different races' and ethnicities' compensation in professional sports. Historically, these comparisons are made between white and African American players. Next, a detailed look at the dataset that is used in the paper, which is from the Sean Lahman 2012 Baseball Database which consists of data going back to 1871, although this paper's scope is only for the years between 1985 and 2009. Regressions are then prepared in the …

Workers' Responses To Incentives: The Case Of Pending Mlb Free Agents, Joshua Congdon-Hohman, Jonathan A. Lanning

Economics Department Working Papers

This study examines ways in which workers respond to implicit incentives. Specifically, we examine the extent to which workers shift their effort to activities that are measured and which have been previously rewarded in the labor market. To examine this question, we examine the changes in the performance measures of professional baseball players in the season prior to the opportunity to freely negotiate their contract (free agency). We will examine different eras in baseball to examine if we can identify changes in behavior in this pivotal year based on changes to the current premium outputs for each time period.

Taxing The Opposition: Cactus League Attendance And The Efficiency Of The 'Cubs Tax', Michael C. Davis, Craig Palsson, Joseph Price

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In 2010, a plan to finance a new spring training stadium for the Cubs through a ticket surcharge on all games in the Cactus League was proposed. We find that the Cubs increase attendance when they are the away team by about 37%. Thus, the surcharge would be economically justified as long as the price elasticity of tickets is less than 0.32, which many prior studies find to be the case. This tax provides one of the few examples in which the cost of a subsidized stadium would be born primarily by the group that benefits the most from the …

Modeling Offensive Performance And Salary In Major League Baseball, Joseph E. Ojanen

Culminating Projects in Economics

There are numerous statistics, such as Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage, which attempt to measure the value of Major League Baseball players. However, the statistics commonly used today each have problems associated with it, which means they are not a good predictor of runs scored.

In an attempt to improve on these statistics, numerous models have been developed by Lindsey, Pankin, James, Bennet and Flueck, Thom, Palmer, and Gershman, and Furtado that estimate runs by assigning values to various statistics. There have also been numerous models, such as those by Hakes and Sauer, Brown and Jepsen, and Stone …

Winning Off The Field: The Determinants Of Mlb Franchise Value, David F. Ulrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the underlying drivers of MLB franchise value. Using panel data for MLB teams from 2000-2010, I find that a team’s ballpark and metro-area market are significant determinants, yet revenues truly drive value. Further, I find that incremental increases in winning percentage by a particular team has an insignificant effect on total revenues and has no marginal impact on the value of the team, particularly if the team recognizes consistent revenue streams every year. Finally, I show that the modern sabermetric approach to player management negatively impacts firm value, suggesting that although small market teams have been successful …

An Economic Impact Study Of The "Boom" Period Of Baseball Stadium Redevelopment, Emily Mcnab

CMC Senior Theses

The intention of this study is to analyze the economic impact of redeveloped Major League Baseball stadiums opened between 1991 and 2004. Using two empirical models, including an event study, this impact analysis captures the economic conditions of the cities during the opening year of the stadium, as well as the prior conditions leading up to the opening of the stadium, along with any lingering effects or gradual changes in conditions. The impact was measured in relation to the Metropolitan Statistical Areas corresponding to the 18 ballparks included, specifically looking at the impact on employment rates and per capita personal …

Some Professionals Play Minimax: A Reexamination Of The Minimax Theory In Major League Baseball, Jeffrey Park

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the behavior of Major League Baseball pitchers. We analyze the pitching data from 2007-2010 in order to determine whether their actions follow minimax play. We also examine what the OPS statistic tells us about a pitcher's value.

Do Firms Have Short Memories? Evidence From Major League Baseball, Andrew Healy

Economics Faculty Works

When deciding what salary to offer an employee, a firm needs to predict that employee’s future productivity. One piece of information that a firm can use to predict productivity is the employee’s past performance record. Classical theory predicts that firms will effectively use the available information to choose an appropriate salary offer. Evidence from baseball contracts indicates, however, that memory-based biases influence salary offers. Consistent with insights from psychology and behavioral economics, salaries are affected too much by recent performance compared with past performance. All organizations do not suffer equally from short memories. The teams that achieve the most with …

Major League Baseball As Enron: The True Meaning Of The Mitchell Report, Mitchell J. Nathanson

Mitchell J Nathanson

Although the December 13, 2007 release of the Mitchell Report received attention for the names of the players included within, what was overlooked by many was the true import of the report: namely, the indictment of Major League Baseball itself as a corrupt entity. As such, the players identified as steroid abusers within the report were merely reflections of the larger, systemic problem that existed for decades within MLB rather than the problem in and of themselves. This article examines this revelation in detail.

No More Baseball Giveaways, Scott J. Wallsten

Scott J. Wallsten

No abstract provided.

A Tale Of Two Stadiums: Comparing The Economic Impact Of Chicago’S Wrigley Field And U.S. Cellular Field, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade, Mimi Nikolova

Economics Department Working Papers

Supporters of sports stadium construction often defend taxpayer subsidies for stadiums by suggesting that sports infrastructure can serve as an anchor for local economic redevelopment. Have such promises of economic rejuvenation been realized? The City of Chicago provides an interesting case study on how a new stadium, U. S. Cellular Field, has been integrated into its southside neighborhood in a way that may well have limited local economic activity. This economic outcome stands in stark contrast to Wrigley Field in northern Chicago which continues to experience a synergistic commercial relationship with its neighborhood.

Final Offer Arbitration In The New Era Of Major League Baseball, Spencer B. Gordon

ExpressO

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic, athletic, and social impact of final offer salary arbitration in Major League Baseball (“MLB”). The article delves into the motivations, fluctuations, and evolution of the player-owner relationship and free agency. The commentary then focuses on the distinguishing features and intricacies of final offer arbitration. Although salary arbitration in the context of Major League Baseball is a topic oft discussed in the law review setting, the analysis rarely reaches the level exhibited in this article. Moreover, most articles on the subject were written between 1996 and 2000 when the 1994 players’ strike …

Striking Out? The Economic Impact Of Major League Baseball Work Stoppages On Host, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade

Economics Department Working Papers

Major League Baseball teams have used the lure of economic riches as an incentive for cities to construct new stadiums at considerable public expense. Estimates of the economic impact of a MLB on host communities have typically been in the vicinity of $300 million. Our analysis suggest these numbers are wildly inflated. Using the baseball strikes of 1981, 1994, and 1995 as test cases, we find the net economic impact for a MLB team on a host city of $16.2 million under one model and $132.3 million under a second model.

A Fall Classic? Assessing The Economic Impact Of The World Series, Victor Matheson, Robert Baade

Economics Department Working Papers

An empirical analysis of the economic impact of the Major League Baseball’s postseason on host-city economies from 1972-2001 suggests that any economic benefits from the playoff are small or non-existent. An examination of 129 playoff series finds that any increase ineconomic growth as a result of the post-season is not statistically significantly different than zero and that a best guess of the economic impact is $6.8 million per home game. As a general method of economic development, public support of a baseball team’s attempt to reach the World Series should be seen as a gamble at best.

The Effects Of Labor Strikes On Consumer Demand: A Re-Examination Of Major League Baseball, Victor Matheson

Economics Department Working Papers

Previous research has concluded that the 1981 and 1994/95 Major League Baseball (MLB) strikes have caused short-term losses in attendance but have not resulted in any long-term effects on attendance. While total attendance at MLB games following the 1994/95 strike has recovered to its pre-strike levels, this has been done only through the construction of new stadiums at an unprecedented pace which cannot continue into the future. After accounting for stadium effects, average MLB baseball attendance has dropped significantly since the 1994/95 strike.