Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Distillers' Grains: Past, Present, And Future Economic Analyses, Daniel E. Gertner

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This thesis is comprised of four chapters, each of which discusses or conducts economic research related to the distillers’ grains market. The first three chapters are meant to be standalone papers. Chapter four provides potential paths forward in distillers’ grains research based on the findings of the first three chapters and concludes the thesis.

The first chapter conducts a comprehensive literature review that categorizes and summarizes economic research on distillers’ grains products. This section shows how the physical market has moved beyond the current academic understanding of market products and structure. Existing research finds that traditional distillers’ grains products positively …

The Implications Of Covid-19 On Fear Of Financial Collapse, Alexis Reekie

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

By disrupting the general value paradigm, the typical hierarchy of values, individuals directly affected by the COVID-19 virus have realized an overall shift in perspective, indicating a need to understand the effects of the COVID-19 virus on one’s outlook regarding economic anxiety and fear of financial collapse. The possibility of a global health crisis reaching levels of devastation are certainly great and worth investigating. Throughout this research paper I worked to determine the correlation between fear of financial crises and individuals who have been affected by the COVID-19 virus. Utilizing the Chapman Survey of American Fears (FEAR survey) questions pertaining …

Economic Impact Of Targeted Government Responses To Covid-19: Evidence From The Large-Scale Cluster In Seoul, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Jinwook Shin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the economic impact of South Korea's targeted responses to the first large-scale COVID-19 cluster in Seoul. We find that foot traffic and retail sales decreased only within a 300 meter radius of the cluster and recovered to its pre-outbreak level after four weeks. The reductions appear to be driven by temporary business closures rather than the risk avoidance behavior of the citizens. Our results imply that less intense, but more targeted COVID-19 interventions, such as pin-pointed, temporary closures of businesses, can be a low-cost alternative after lifting strict social distancing measures.

Does Precise Case Disclosure Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence From Covid-19 In Singapore, Aljoscha Janssen, Matthew H. Shapiro

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limiting the spread of contagious diseases can involve both government-managed and voluntary efforts. Governments have a number of policy options beyond direct intervention that can shape individuals’ responses to a pandemic and its associated costs. During its first wave of COVID-19 cases, Singapore was among a few countries that attempted to adjust behavior through the announcement of detailed case information. Singapore's Ministry of Health maintained and shared precise, daily information detailing local travel behavior and residences of COVID-19 cases. We use this policy along with device-level cellphone data to quantify how local and national COVID-19 case announcements trigger differential behavioral …

Economic Forecasting In An Epidemic: A Break From The Past?, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting record for GDP growth and CPI inflation. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure in the pandemic crisis and test for behavioural explanations of the possible sources of forecast errors such as leader following and herding behaviour. Using percentile-based summary measures …

Covid-19 And Women-Led Businesses Around The World, Yu Liu, Siqi Wei, Jian Xu

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

The impacts of crises are never gender-neutral, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Using a brand-new dataset covering 24 countries, we document that women-led businesses are subject to a higher likelihood of closure and a longer closure duration than men-led businesses during the pandemic. Women business leaders are also more pessimistic about the future than men business leaders. The disadvantages suffered by women-led businesses widen in high gender inequality economies and developing economies. Our results further indicate that finance and labor factors are likely to be the major contributors to these disadvantages. We suggest that COVID-19′s policy response should …

Population Growth In Mountain West Cities And Suburbs, 2010-2020, Dielle T. Telada, William E. Brown Jr.

Cities & Metros

COVID-19 altered population growth trends within large cities and the relative growth of cities and suburbs within the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. Brookings senior fellow William H. Frey suggests “that most big cities with populations exceeding 250,000 experienced lower population growth in the year the pandemic began than in the previous year.” This Fact Sheet examines annual growth rates within selected Mountain West metros and suburbs from 2010 and 2020.

The Impact Of The Pandemic On U.S. Labor Markets: Past, Present And Future Concerns, Michael Horrigan

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Exposure To Covid-19 Is Associated With Increased Altruism, Particularly At The Local Level, Gianluca Grimalda, Nancy R. Buchan, Orgul D. Ozturk, Adriana C. Pinate, Giulia Urso, Marilynn B. Brewer

Faculty Publications

Theory posits that situations of existential threat will enhance prosociality in general and particularly toward others perceived as belonging to the same group as the individual (parochial altruism). Yet, the global character of the COVID-19 pandemic may blur boundaries between ingroups and outgroups and engage altruism at a broader level. In an online experiment, participants from the U.S. and Italy chose whether to allocate a monetary bonus to a charity active in COVID-19 relief efforts at the local, national, or international level. The purpose was to address two important questions about charitable giving in this context: first, what influences the …

The Efficiency Of U.S. Public Space Utilization During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Seth G. Benzell, Avinash Collis, Christos Nicolaides

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The COVID-19 pandemic has called for and generated massive novel government regulations to increase social distancing for the purpose of reducing disease transmission. A number of studies have attempted to guide and measure the effectiveness of these policies, but there has been less focus on the overall efficiency of these policies. Efficient social distancing requires implementing stricter restrictions during periods of high viral prevalence and rationing social contact to disproportionately preserve gatherings that produce a good ratio of benefits to transmission risk. To evaluate whether U.S. social distancing policy actually produced an efficient social distancing regime, we tracked consumer preferences …

Sources Of Covid-19 Information Seeking And Their Associations With Self-Perceived Mental Health Among Canadians, Yanli Li

Library Publications

Using two datasets from the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series (CPSS), this study provides a longitudinal analysis of information sources Canadians consulted regarding COVID-19 and their associations with poor self-perceived mental health (SPMH) during March and July 2020. Nearly 20% of Canadians who were surveyed reported poor SPMH. The logistic regression results revealed that at Time 2 (July 2020), after controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and psychobehavioural factors, using social media was significantly associated with higher odds of poor SPMH than using six other information sources including news outlets, federal health agencies, provincial health agencies, provincial daily announcements, places of employment, and …

Challenges To Social Mobility In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Marcus Kheng Tat Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore had achieved impressive economic growth together with a high level of upward mobility since her independence in 1965. However, the growth process might have become more uneven, in addition to diminishing growth for a matured economy like Singapore, which is also a highly open city state subject to competitive forces from other economies. Singapore has fared well recently,
evident from the 2020 social mobility findings reported by the World Economic Forum and the decline in Gini coefficients for the past decade. We discuss the education system in Singapore and the recently formed National Jobs Council, both important institutions for …

The Economics Of The Covid-19 Pandemic In Poor Countries, Edward Miguel, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

The COVID-19 pandemic has upended health and living standards around the world. This article provides an interim overview of these effects, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Economists have explained how the pandemic is likely to have differential consequences for LMICs, and demand distinct policy responses, compared to rich countries. We survey the rapidly expanding body of empirical research that documents its many adverse economic and non-economic effects in terms of living standards, education, health, and gender equality, which appear to be unprecedented in depth and scale. We also review research on successful and failed policy …

Path Dependence And Stagnation In A Classical Growth Model, Thomas R. Michl, Daniele Tavani

PERI Working Papers

This paper embeds a technical progress function in a classical growth model and studies the effects of permanent changes in parameters and temporary shocks such as pandemics. Technical change is driven by dynamic economies of scale and responds to distributional forces: the wage share regulates labor-saving technical change and employment regulates its capital- using bias. The model features path dependence in the employment-population rate and the output-capital ratio. Population growth and distribution can respond to the employment rate. Interpreted through the model, secular stagnation under neoliberal capitalism has been driven by a combination of diminished investment and reduced worker bargaining …

Covid-19: Creative Class Job Loss In The Mountain West, Katie M. Gilbertson, Kelliann Beavers, Peter Grema, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet summarizes Mountain West data on creative economy job losses in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, as reported in a recent Brookings report “Lost Art: Measuring COVID-19’s Devastating Impact on America’s Creative Economy.” Richard Florida and Michael Seman discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on job losses in “creative industries, which are comprised of firms and establishments that produce goods and services relating to music, film, design, advertising, fashion, art, and more.”

How Did Homelessness Change During The Great Recession And Recovery?, Jenny Schuetz, Matthew Ring

Policy Briefs and Reports

Job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated housing insecurity among low-income renters over the past year. Federal, state, and local policymakers have created temporary measures to help reduce displacement among people who have lost their jobs, but there is considerable uncertainty about what will happen when these temporary measures end. To gain insight into how homelessness changes over macroeconomic cycles, we examine changes in homelessness rates from 2007 to 2020. Our analysis focuses on four metro areas that were particularly hard-hit by the foreclosure crisis: Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Riverside. Overall homelessness rates declined in all metros …

Covid-19: Projected Employment Change In The Mountain West, 2019 - 2029, Peter Grema, Madison Frazee-Bench, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet summarizes a report by Mark Muro and Yang You of the Metropolitan Policy Program at the Brookings Institution titled, “In some cities, the pandemic’s economic pain may continue for a decade.” Using February 2021 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) economic baseline data, the original report projects employment change for states and metros from prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to 2029. This fact sheet summarizes the findings for Mountain West states (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) and the major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in each state.

Chance Elections, Social Distancing Restrictions, And Kentucky's Early Covid-19 Experience, Charles J. Courtemanche, Joseph Garuccio, Anh Le, Joshua C. Pinkston, Aaron Yelowitz

Economics Faculty Publications

Early in the pandemic, slowing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing restrictions in March and April of 2020, though policies varied both in timing and scope. Compared to states with Democratic governors, those with Republican governors often adopted measures for shorter durations and with greater resistance from their residents. In Kentucky, an extremely close gubernatorial election immediately prior to the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 replaced a Republican incumbent with a Democrat, despite Republicans easily winning all other statewide races. This chance election result offers a unique opportunity to examine the …

Government Support For Smes In Response To Covid-19: Theoretical Model Using Wang Transform, Shaun Shuxun Wang, Jing Rong Goh, Didier Sornette, He Wang, Esther Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Purpose: Many governments are taking measures in support of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. This paper presents a theoretical model for evaluating various government measures, including insurance for bank loans, interest rate subsidy, bridge loans and relief of tax burdens. Design/methodology/approach: This paper distinguishes a firm's intrinsic value and book value, where a firm can lose its intrinsic value when it encounters cash-flow crunch. Wang transform is applied to (1) calculating the appropriate level of interest rate subsidy payable to incentivize banks to issue more loans to SMEs and to extend …

The Fiscal Architecture Of Subnational Governments In Federal Nepal, Khim Lal Devkota

ICEPP Working Papers

The formation of the three tiers of government represents a novel experiment in Nepal’s federal journey since the adoption of the new constitution in 2015. State power in the former unitary system, both rights and responsibilities, has been divided across federal, provincial and local tiers of government, with a mix of exclusive and concurrent powers for each. In matters within their jurisdiction, subnational governments can formulate laws on financial rights, set their own budgets, make decisions, devise plans and policies, implement those plans, levy taxes, and collect revenues. In the roughly three years since devolution went into effect, a few …

The “America First” Trade Policy Of The Trump Administration And Its Economic And Military Repercussions, Emily Jeffers

Senior Honors Theses

This paper looks at the “America first” trade policy of the Trump administration and the perception that it was used to accomplish his goals of economic and military independence from the rest of the world’s interdependent web. It looks at the history of trade policy and tariffs in the United States; this is then linked to the evolution of President Trump’s trade policy through the implementation of tariffs, renegotiation of trade deals, and revision of military policy in order to “decouple” from the rest of the world. It examines the US-China trade war and the desire for increased global trade …

School Reopenings, Mobility, And Covid-19 Spread: Evidence From Texas, Charles J. Courtemanche, Anh Le, Aaron Yelowitz, Ron Zimmer

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID19 cases and fatalities. Previous evidence suggests that schools can be reopened safely if community spread is low and public health guidelines are followed. However, in Texas, reopenings often occurred alongside high community spread and at near capacity, likely making it difficult to meet social distancing recommendations. Using event-study models and hand-collected instruction modality and start dates for all school districts, we find robust evidence that reopening Texas schools gradually but substantially accelerated the community spread of COVID-19. Results from our preferred specification imply that school …

The Impact Of Information Shocks And Partisanship On The Evolution Of Covid-19 In Connecticut, Joslin Valiyaveettil

Honors Scholar Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of life within the United States since early 2020. How people decided to behave during this time heavily influenced the trends that followed, triggering both health and behavioral economic concerns. Those trends seemed to vary based on the area and the beliefs of those constituents. This paper explores how partisan beliefs had an impact on the changes in case rates that occurred within the top 30 most populated towns in the state of Connecticut. In July 2020, former President Donald Trump sent out a tweet publicly endorsing face masks for the first time. …

Exploring Equity In Health And Poverty Impacts Of Control Measures For Sars-Cov-2 In Six Countries, Sedona Sweeney, Theo Prudencio Juhani Capeding, Rosalind Eggo, Maryam Huda, Mark Jit, Don Mudzengi, Nichola R. Naylor, Simon Procter, Matthew Quaife, Lela Serebryakova

Community Health Sciences

Background: Policy makers need to be rapidly informed about the potential equity consequences of different COVID-19 strategies, alongside their broader health and economic impacts. While there are complex models to inform both potential health and macro-economic impact, there are few tools available to rapidly assess potential equity impacts of interventions.
Methods: We created an economic model to simulate the impact of lockdown measures in Pakistan, Georgia, Chile, UK, the Philippines and South Africa. We consider impact of lockdown in terms of ability to socially distance, and income loss during lockdown, and tested the impact of assumptions on social protection coverage …

Studying Successful Ageing: A Showcase Of The Singapore Life Panel, Jee Yuen Yew, Jia Wei Gwee, Anirudh Srivathsan

ROSA Research Briefs

In this special issue of the ROSA Research Brief Series, we showcase two aspects of the work being done at the Centre for Research on Successful Ageing (ROSA). Firstly, we showcase the capabilities of the Singapore Life Panel (SLP) and the data that the SLP is able to obtain and measure on a monthly basis. Secondly, we showcase the amazing work of the SGUnited Traineeship Programme’s Research Assistants at ROSA who have proven themselves to be incredible assets in helping further ROSA’s aims of enabling successful ageing in Singapore. ROSA aims to measure well-being among older adults holistically in order …

Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth disconnection—i.e., the share of young people who were neither in school nor at work. Youth disconnection offers important advantages, relative to unemployment or participation rates, as a measure of the labor market for the most marginal and disadvantaged youth. Before the pandemic, approximately one out of eight young people between the ages of 18 and 24 were disconnected. The disconnection rate increased dramatically in April 2020 because of the pandemic; however, it has decreased quickly since that time. The increase in the disconnection rate at the beginning of the …

Youth Disconnection During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Mark Borgschulte, Yuci Chen

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Rethinking Credentials For Aviation Sustainability: A Dacum Approach, Leila Halawi

Publications

The pandemic of COVID-19 Millennials aren't the youngest working generation anymore, and Gen Zers are the new kids on the block. This group of individuals, born between 1995 and 2019, already makes up 5% of the total U.S. labor force, roughly 9 million people. However, the skills gap is real and exists, one in which research shows that new college graduates either do not have all the skills employers want, or they are not doing an excellent job of demonstrating those skills in their resumes.

Sustainability programs consistently encounter challenges that threaten the future as a viable academic discipline. It …

Government Management Capacities And The Containment Of Covid-19: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study Across Chinese Cities, Wenchao Li, Jing Li, Junjian Yi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Objectives: Better understanding of the dynamics of the COVID-19 (2019 novel coronavirus disease) pandemic to curb its spread is now a global imperative. While travel restrictions and control measures have been shown to limit the spread of the disease, the effectiveness of the enforcement of those measures should depend on the strength of the government. Whether, and how, the government plays a role in fighting the disease, however, has not been investigated. Here, we show that government management capacities are critical to the containment of the disease. Setting: We conducted a statistical analysis based on cross-city comparisons within China. China …

How College Enrollment Changed For Kalamazoo Promise Students Between Fall 2019 And Fall 2020, Daniel Collier, Isabel Mcmullen, Brad J. Hershbein

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

The COVID-19 pandemic greatly reduced the college enrollment rate for students during the Fall 2020 semester. National data show that although enrollment of new students declined overall, it varied substantially by institution type and student characteristics. What national data do not reveal is how certain communities with already high college-going rates responded to the pandemic. We use data from Kalamazoo Public Schools (KPS) and the tuition-free program the Kalamazoo Promise to compare the immediate college enrollment of graduating high school students from the class of 2019 to that of the class of 2020. Overall, immediate college enrollment of KPS graduates …