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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich
Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich
Center for Policy Research
Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for nearly 200 nations at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this paper demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across nations since 1950--not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 relative to that aged 25 to 59) which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among children and young adults during the demographic …
The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich
The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich
Center for Policy Research
Using two different measures of relative cohort size--one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other the ratio of young to prime-age adults in the United States in that year--it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past 33 years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes …
The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich
The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich
Center for Policy Research
This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are …