Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Fragility And Resiliance Of The International Financial Structure: Some General Conditions And Their Applicability To Current Conditions, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Remarks prepared for a round table sponsored by the American Economic Association and the International Trade and Finance Association, Saturday, December 29, 1990.

The Costs Of Inflation: Higher Than We Think - Lecture Announcement, Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Announcement for Lecture by Peter Howitt.

Review Of "Asia Next Giant: South Korea And Late Industrialization" By A. H. Amsden, Larry E. Westphal

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Default And Bankruptcy In A Multistage Exchange Economy, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Either lending must be secured or otherwise some form of default or bankruptcy rules are required to provide a disincentive against strategic default. When many time periods are involved, the mere specification of a penalty which is sufficient for one period of trade, is not sufficient. The complete specification of even a two period game requires that both the treatment of creditors (including seniority conditions) and the nature of the rehabilitation of the debtor must be specified. This paper explores these problems.

A Strategic Market Game With A Mutual Bank With Fractional Reserves And Redemption In Gold (A Continuum Of Traders), Martin Shubik, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We utilize the strategic market game approach to analyze the role and function of a mutual bank with variable fractional reserves, redemption in gold and endogenous interest rate formation. We specify the conditions of enough money and its distribution. Using the continuum of traders model, we show existence and optimality for the case of no bankruptcy as well as for the case in which there exists the potentiality of bankruptcy. Finally, we analyze the relationship of the gearing ratio and the bankruptcy penalty with respect to the resulting equilibrium allocations.

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1990, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is recognized for its role in collecting, collating, analyzing, and disseminating data on the Nigerian economy. It has made available as much information as possible through its regular publications such as the Monthly, Half-Year, and Annual Reports, as well as the Economic and Financial Review and the Intermediate Economic and Financial Indicators. However, the bulk of the statistics published in these documents have focused mainly on the current and irregular reporting periods. This has led to a gap in the availability of relevant statistics in the country. The first issue of the CBN Strategic …

An Estimation Of Human Capital Loss Resulting From Subversive Deaths Due To The Northern Ireland Conflict, Brian Armour

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Conflict entails numerous sacrifices in human resources in addition to loss of life, while it is difficult to appraise the real cost of conflict, one can determine the number of fatalities. It is the primary goal of this thesis to develop an accounting technique by which the human capital cost of fatalities due to the Northern Ireland Conflict may be measured in an accepted unit of account. While the development of a model for measuring human capital loss is in itself an important part of the study, the ultimate objective is to arrive at an estimate of the human capital …

Conference Brochure "Monetary Theory And Policy", Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Conference Brochure

How Big Is Your Share Of Government Debt?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In evaluating the government's financial position, taxpayers need to account not only for its debt, but also for its ownership of tangible assets. Each taxpayer has a share of the government's net worth that is positive; however, the share was larger 10 years ago. While the real net debt tripled, this huge rise in government indebtedness generated no similar gain in government assets. Taxpayers will be paying interest on this debt with little hope of higher future returns from government assets to help pay it off. It is recommended that the government adopt a capital-budgeting system. This system would change …

A Strategic Market Game Of A Finite Economy With A Mutual Bank, Martin Shubik, Jingang Zhao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce a strategic market game for an exchange economy not having enough commodity money. We show the existence of a non-cooperative equilibrium for any finite replication economy with a mutual bank, we then show that efficient trade can be achieved in the limiting economy by expanding the money supply through the use of fractional reserves, where the commodity money is demonetized and used for reserves. The means of exchange becomes bank credit backed in part, by “gold.” However, efficiency can not be achieved in general as a non-cooperative equilibrium of a finite player game or a finite exchange economy.

On The Convex Hull Of The Integer Points, Antal Balog, Imre Bárány

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Let P r denote the convex hull of the integer points in the disc of radius r . We prove that the number of vertices of P r is essentially r 2 /3 as r approaches infinity.

Testing The Existence Of Reputational Capital Among Major League Baseball Teams, Stuart Towne

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate the existence of reputational capital among Major League Baseball teams.

Previous studies have shown that there is a strong relationship between past performance and current attendance at professional baseball games. Using reputational capital as an explanation, this paper provides a general discussion of this relationship.

The discussion of reputational capital is followed by an empirical analysis which includes several model specifications designed to show the effects of past performance on current attendance. One series of models uses cross-sectional data to measure the effects in general across the league and another series of …

Land Costs Make For High-Cost Housing Starts, Chester Smolski

Smolski Texts

"Here in the Northeast, where housing prices are among the highest in the nation, it is difficult to find measures to reduce the price of housing to make it more affordable. Even with talk of an impending recession, house prices have moderated only slightly, and the real estate business finds itself in a very troubled state."

Credit And Finance In The Emerging “Great Europe”, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Remarks prepared for a meeting of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena Forum, Siena, Italy. Nov. 23, 1990.

In addition to the main article, three other copies are presented: One showing handwritten edits to the pages, the next also showing postit notes on those same pages, and a third is an earlier draft of this paper dated 13 October 1990.

Aspects Of Distribution Of Wealth And Income, Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Packet for attendees of Conference.

Agenda For Conference "Aspects Of Distribution Of Wealth And Income", Levy Institute

Archives of the Levy Economics Institute

Two day agenda of Conference.

The Victory Of Capitalism, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

No abstract provided.

Minnesota Housing Report [1990 4th Quarter], George R. Karvel Dr.

Minnesota Housing Reports

The Minnesota Housing Report is compiled on the basis of monthly housing reports furnished to the Minnesota Real Estate Research Center at St. Cloud State University. Funding to permit preparation of the Minnesota Housing Report is provided by the Educational Foundation of the Minnesota Association of REALTORS and St. Cloud State University.

The reports are supplied by fourteen cooperating local real estate boards representing 80 percent of Minnesota' s population. The boards represent various areas of the state and thus provide a picture of housing diversity between regions as well as housing trends within regions.

Information presented for the state …

The Slowdown In Soviet Defense Expenditures: Comment, Abdur Chowdhury, Josef C. Brada, Ronald L. Graves

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

The reason for the apparently opposing results in Brada and Graves' (1988) attempt to explain the reasons for the slowdown in USSR defense expenditures in the mid-1970s is that their analysis suffers from a serious serial correlation problem. The majority of the regressions display Durbin-Watson statistics that reject the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation. A reestimation of their results, after correcting for serial correlation, changes some of their major conclusions regarding the factors influencing Soviet defense spending. The corrected results indicate that no structural break occurred in the mid-1970s. These results suggest that there has been no change in Soviet …

Free Bank Failures In New York And Wisconsin: A Portfolio Analysis, Andrew J. Economopoulos

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Rolnick and Weber found that a sharp decline in asset prices led to bank panics and, ultimately, bank failures during the free banking era. An examination of New York and Wisconsin free bank portfolios prior to a fall in asset prices indicates banks that weathered the turmoil held significantly different portfolios than closed banks. In general, solvent banks held more loans and specie, and issued more deposits and less bank notes than closed banks.

Estimation Of Multinomial Models Using Weak Monotonicity Assumptions, Rosa L. Matzkin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper introduces a semiparametric method of estimating multinomial models that imposes extremely weak monotonicity assumptions about a function of observable characteristics. Previous methods have imposed stronger, typically parametric, conditions on this function. The only assumptions made in this paper about the function of characteristics are its monotonicity, upper-semicontinuity, and uniform boundedness. The method is applicable, among others, to polychotomous choice models. The estimation method is shown to be strongly consistent. A technique to calculate the estimator is provided.

Least Concavity And The Distribution-Free Estimation Of Non-Parametric Concave Functions, Rosa L. Matzkin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the estimation of fully nonparametric models in which we can not identify the values of a symmetric function that we seek to estimate. I develop a method of consistently estimating a representative of a concave and monotone nonparametric systematic function. This representative possesses the same isovalue sets as the systematic function. The method proceeds by characterizing each set of observationally equivalent concave functions by a unique “least concave” representative. The least concave representative of the equivalence class to which the systematic function belongs is estimated by maximizing a criterion function over a compact set of least concave …

Changes In Income Distribution In Poor Agricultural Nations: Malawi And Madagascar, Frederic L. Pryor

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

The Price For The Widow's Cruse: Or The Value Of An Infinitely Productive Asset, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper considers two basic problems: The first is the necessity for introducing government money (as contrasted with individual credit) and an infinitely lived government in an overlapping generations economy. The second concerns the evaluation of the price of an infinitely productive asset in an economy without a natural discount factor.

Stock Prices And Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained In Terms Of Present Value Models?, Robert J. Shiller, Andrea E. Beltratti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Real stock prices seem to overreact to changes in long-term interest rates. That is, real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by a rational expectations present value model where expectations are based on a vector autoregression. This overreaction is not associated with any overreaction to changes in the short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates, and according to the model they should show little reaction. These conclusions were reached from an analysis of annual data in …

The Hybrid Solutions Of An N-Person Game, Jingang Zhao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce a solution concept intermediate between the cooperative and noncooperative solutions of an n -person game in normal form. Consider a partition p of the players, with each s in p a coalition. A joint strategy x = { x s | s in p } is a hybrid solution for the partition p if, for each s in p , x s is a core solution of the corresponding parametric subgame, where this game isplayed by the players in s and is parameterized by x -s , the strategies played by all outside players. This assumes that players …

Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators For Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Limited Dependent Variable Models, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, Axel Borsch-Supan

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We apply a new simulation method that solves the multidimensional probability integrals that arise in maximum likelihood estimation of a broad class of limited dependent variable models. The simulation method has four key features: the simulated choice probabilities are unbiased; they are a continuous and differentiable function of the parameters of the model; they are bounded between 0 and 1; and their computation takes an effort that is nearly linear in the dimension of the probability integral, independent of the magnitudes of the true probabilities. We also show that the new simulation method produces probability estimates with substantially smaller variance …

Inefficiency Of Strategy-Proof Allocation Mechanisms In Pure Exchange Economies, Lin Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper I prove that in the standard model of 2 times n ( n > 2) pure exchange economies there is no allocation mechanism that is efficient, non-inversely-dictatorial, and strategy-proof. This strengthens two previous results on this subject by Hurwicz and by Dasgupta, Hammond, and Maskin.

Efficient Bargains In The Context Of Recent Labor Market Experience And Policy, Robert A. Hart, Thomas Moutos

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In Europe in recent times, bargaining between a leading nationally-based industrial union and a representative group of employers over the issues of employment, wages and working time has proved to be influential in a much wider industrial context. Adopting a generalized Nash bargaining approach, this paper considers the possible effects on such "key" bargains of several prominent labor market events and policies experienced since the middle 1970s. These include the impacts of OPEC supply shocks, changes in union power, greater emphasis on payroll taxes as well as growing government economic orthodoxy as expressed through the goal of a balanced budget.

Program For Workshop On Changes In Economic Institutions And The Mitteleuropean Question,, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D.

Hyman P. Minsky Archive

Program for 9th International Summer School of Economics. Marina Di Aurisina (Trieste, Italy), Aug. 21-29, 1990. Workshop on Changes in Economic Institutions and the MittelEuropean Question, Aug. 30-31, 1990.