Social and Behavioral Sciences | Open Access Articles

The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi Jul 2015

The Gambler's Fallacy: A Test Of Football-Betting Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi

Ladd Kochman

Imaginary wagers placed on college football teams during the 2006-2010 seasons that were expected to beat the point spread following two games in which they lost both on the field and against the spread produced a wins-to-bets ratio that was statistically nonrandom but not profitable. However, when that rule was limited to the major conference schools, a significantly profitable W/B ratio emerged that challenges the efficiency of a competitive market.

Go to article

Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman Jul 2015

Dogs No Longer Man's Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman

Ladd Kochman

The outcomes of wagers on underdogs in the National Football League for the 2003-2007 seasons indicated that what had been anomalous behavior no longer existed. The failure of underdogs to beat the spread in profitable or nonrandom fashion supports the argument that competitive markets are efficient and undermines the proposition that behavioral finance can illuminate exploitable betting patterns.

Go to article

Pricing Inefficiencies In The Football-Betting Market, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi Jul 2015

Pricing Inefficiencies In The Football-Betting Market, Ladd Kochman, Ravija Badarinathi

Ladd Kochman

Since Pankoff (Journal of Business, 1968), investment writers have recognized that bets on the outcome of football games provide an unusually direct test of pricing efficiency by market consensus. In a football context, prices are proxied by pointspreads (values ranging from 1 to 50+, which represent the bettors' expectations regarding the stronger team's victory margin). Efficiency refers to the impossibility of using betting rules based on past performance or information not discounted by the spread to win consistently.

Go to article

Inferring Drug Use From Productivity Trends In Track And Field, Michael Seeborg, Allison Fisher Dec 2009

Inferring Drug Use From Productivity Trends In Track And Field, Michael Seeborg, Allison Fisher

Michael Seeborg

No abstract provided.

Go to article

Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach Dec 2009

Sportsbook Pricing And The Behavioral Biases Of Bettors In The Nhl, Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach

Rodney J. Paul

The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor …

Go to article

No More Baseball Giveaways, Scott J. Wallsten Aug 2006