Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Forecasting The New York State Economy With “Terraced” Vars And Coincident Indices, Eric Doviak, Sean P. Macdonald

Publications and Research

This paper introduces “Terraced” Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts. In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions.

Negative Effects Of Paternal Age On Children's Neurocognitive Outcomes Can Be Explained By Maternal Education And Number Of Siblings, Ryan D. Edwards, Jennifer Roff

Publications and Research

Background Recent findings suggest advanced paternal age may be associated with impaired child outcomes, in particular, neurocognitive skills. Such patterns are worrisome given relatively universal trends in advanced countries toward delayed nuptiality and fertility. But nature and nurture are both important for child outcomes, and it is important to control for both when drawing inferences about either pathway.

Methods and Findings We examined cross-sectional patterns in six developmental outcome measures among children in the U.S. Collaborative Perinatal Project (n=31,346). Many of these outcomes at 8 mo, 4 y, and 7 y of age (Bayley scales, Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale, Graham-Ernhart …

Labor Force And Economic Changes In Cuba, Pavel Vidal Alejandro, Omar Everleny Perez Villanueva, Mario A. Gonzalez-Corzo

Publications and Research

In November 2010, the Cuban government published a 32-page document called “Lineamientos De La Política Económica y Social” [“Guidelines of Economic and Social Policies], which outlines the economic transformations approved in the Sixth Communist Party Congress last April 2011. The guidelines presented in this document expand the economic changes initiated by Raúl Castro in 2008. One of the major changes that already began is the transfer of State workers to the (emerging) private sector. This is the most transformative labor oriented economic adjustment implemented in Cuba so far and is a clear indicator of Cuba’s movement towards a …