Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Persistence And Cyclical Dynamics Of Us And Uk House Prices: Evidence From Over 150 Years Of Data, Giorgio Canarella, Luis Gil-Alana, Rangan Gupta, Stephen M. Miller

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper provides a new and unique look at the dynamics and persistence of historical house prices in the USA and the UK using fractional integration techniques not previously applied to housing markets. Unlike previous research, we consider two components of persistence of house prices: the component associated with the long-run trend and the component associated with the cycle. We find evidence of cyclical and long-run persistence in the UK housing markets. In contrast, we fail to find evidence of cyclical persistence for the USA. For the sub-samples, which account for a structural break in each series, an important difference …

Trouble In The Tails? What We Know About Earnings Nonresponse 30 Years After Lillard, Smith, And Welch, Christopher R. Bollinger, Barry T. Hirsch, Charles M. Hokayem, James P. Ziliak

Economics Faculty Publications

Earnings nonresponse in household surveys is widespread, yet there is limited knowledge of how nonresponse biases earnings measures. We examine the consequences of nonresponse on earnings gaps and inequality using Current Population Survey individual records linked to administrative earnings data. The common assumption that earnings are missing at random is rejected. Nonresponse across the earnings distribution is U-shaped, highest in the left and right tails. Inequality measures differ between household and administrative data due in part to nonresponse. Nonresponse biases earnings differentials by race, gender, and education, particularly in the tails. Flexible copula-based models can account for nonrandom nonresponse.

Chinese Household Saving And Dependent Children: Theory And Evidence, Steven Lugauer, Jinlan Ni, Zhichao Yin

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines the impact of family size on household saving. We first study a theoretical life-cycle model that includes finite lifetimes and saving for retirement and in which parents care about the consumption by their dependent children. The model implies a negative relationship between the number of dependent children in the family and the household saving rate. Then, we test the model's implications using new survey data on household finances in China. We use the differential enforcement of the one-child policy across counties to address the possible endogeneity between household saving and fertility decisions in a two-stage least squares …

The Cost-Effectiveness Of Neonatal Versus Prenatal Screening For Congenital Toxoplasmosis, Christine Binquet, Catherine Lejeune, Valérie Seror, François Peyron, Anne-Claire Bertaux, Olivier Scemama, Catherine Quantin, Sophie Béjean, Eileen Stillwaggon, Martine Wallon

Economics Faculty Publications

Congenital Toxoplasmosis (CT) can have severe consequences. France, Austria, and Slovenia have prenatal screening programs whereas some other countries are considering universal screening to reduce congenital transmission and severity of infection in children. The efficiency of such programs is debated increasingly as seroprevalence among pregnant women and incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis show a steady decrease. In addition, uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of pre- and postnatal treatments.

Subnational Home Market Bias In Vietnam: Evidence From Enterprise‐Level Data, Catherine Y. Co, Thu Kim Nguyen, Que Nguyet Tran, Tung Nhu Nguyen

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper contributes to the home (market) bias literature where administrative or political borders limit trade across borders. Home bias is well documented at the national and subnational level. To sort out macro (e.g., location characteristics) and micro (e.g., enterprise characteristics) factors behind home bias, we use small and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) data from Vietnam. Using the fractional multinomial logit model, we find that the proportion of SME sales outside of their home markets is positively associated with enterprise size, age, number of business association memberships and the distance of SMEs' most important supplier. In contrast, the proportion of SME …

Is Real Per Capita State Personal Income Stationary? New Nonlinear, Asymmetric Panel‐Data Evidence, Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, Rangan Gupta, Stephen M. Millter, Tolga Omay

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper re‐examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit‐root procedures. The new developments incorporate non‐linearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional correlation within panel‐data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross‐sectional dependence.

Prevention And Mitigation Of Congenital Toxoplasmosis: Economic Costs And Benefits In Diverse Settings, Branko Bobić, Isabelle Villena, Eileen Stillwaggon

Economics Faculty Publications

Congenital toxoplasmosis (CT), the result of a primary infection of pregnant women with Toxoplasma gondii which was transmitted to the fetus, may result in mild to deep injuries occurring in the newborn or later in its development or in adolescence. The visual and cognitive impairment that can result imposes substantial economic costs on the individual and society. Numerous observational studies favor the conclusion that, with preventive measures currently available, it is possible to reduce the incidence of infections in pregnant women, the incidence of fetal infection by preventing transplacental transmission, and the gravity of injury in infected newborns. Treatment of …

March Madness: Ncaa Tournament Participation And College Alcohol Use, Dustin R. White, Benjamin W. Cowan, Jadrian J. Wooten

Economics Faculty Publications

While athletic success may improve the visibility of a university to prospective students and thereby benefit the school, it may also increase risky behavior in the current student body. Using the Harvard School of Public Health College Alcohol Study, we find that a school's participation in the NCAA Basketball Tournament is associated with a 47% increase in binge drinking by male students at that school. Additionally, we find evidence that drunk driving increases by 5% among all students during the tournament. (JEL I12, I23, Z28)

The Border Effects Of Domestic Trade In Transitional China: Local Governments’ Preference And Protectionism, Yongliang Zhao, Jinlan Ni

Economics Faculty Publications

Following a two-region border effect model with consumption preference of local governments, this article examines the segmentation of the Chinese domestic market as well as its determinants. Through empirical tests, we find that the average border effect of domestic trade among provinces in China showed an upward trend from 1997–2002 and 2002–2010. The significant difference of border effects between western and eastern areas of China indicate more regional trade barriers in the western areas than in the eastern areas. In addition, compared to agricultural products, there are less trade barriers on industrial products. This partially verifies that there is more …

The Three-Year Impact Of The Affordable Care Act On Disparities In Insurance Coverage, Charles J. Courtemanche, James Marton, Benjamin Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz, Daniela Zapata, Ishtiaque Fazlul

Economics Faculty Publications

Objective
To estimate the impact of the major components of the ACA (Medicaid expansion, subsidized Marketplace plans, and insurance market reforms) on disparities in insurance coverage after three years.

Data Source
The 2011-2016 waves of the American Community Survey (ACS), with the sample restricted to nonelderly adults.

Design
We estimate a difference-in-difference-in-differences model to separately identify the effects of the nationwide and Medicaid expansion portions of the ACA using the methodology developed in the recent ACA literature. The differences come from time, state Medicaid expansion status, and local area pre-ACA uninsured rates. In order to focus on access disparities, we …

Growth Volatility And Inequality In The U.S.: A Wave Analysis, Shinhye Chang, Rangan Gupta, Stephen M. Miller, Mark E. Wohar

Economics Faculty Publications

This study applies wavelet coherency analysis to explore the relationship between the U.S. economic growth volatility, and income and wealth inequality measures over the period 1917 to 2015 and 1962 to 2014. We consider the relationship between output volatility during positive and negative growth scenarios. Wavelet analysis simultaneously examines the correlation and causality between two series in both the time and frequency domains. Our findings provide evidence of positive correlation between the volatility and inequality across high (short-run)- and low-frequencies (long-run). The direction of causality varies across frequencies and time. Strong evidence exists that volatilities lead inequality at low-frequencies across …

The Micro-Foundations Of An Open Economy Money Demand: An Application To Central And Eastern European Countries, Claudiu T. Albulescu, Dominique Pepin, Stephen M. Miller

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the effect of currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro on CEE money demand functions. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies the difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations. More precisely, we posit that currency substitution relates to the money demand sensitivity to interest rate spreads between CEE countries and the euro area. Moreover, we show how the exchange rate affects money demand absent a currency substitution effect. This model applies to any country in which an international currency …

Maternal Work Hours And Childhood Obesity: Evidence Using Instrumental Variables Related To Sibling School Eligibility, Charles J. Courtemanche, Rusty Tchernis, Xilin Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

This study exploits plausibly exogenous variation derived from the youngest sibling’s school eligibility to estimate the effects of maternal work on the weight outcomes of older children. We first show that mothers’ work hours increase gradually along both the extensive and intensive margins as the age of the youngest child rises, whereas mothers’ spouses’ work hours do not appear to be responsive. We develop an instrumental-variables model that shows that mothers’ work hours lead to larger increases in children’s body mass index z-scores and probabilities of being overweight/obese than those identified in previous studies. Subsample analyses find that the …

Learning Effects Of The Flipped Classroom In A Principles Of Microeconomics Course Running Header: Flipped Principles Of Micro, Erik Craft, Maia K. Linask

Economics Faculty Publications

The authors of this article estimate the learning effects of the flipped classroom format using data from 16 sections of principles of microeconomics over a 4-year period. The experimental design is unique in that two treatment and two control sections were taught during the fall semester in four consecutive years. Further, the instructor switched the time of day when the treatment and control sections were taught each year. Controlling for gender, ACT score, a normed high school GPA, Pell Grant award, time of day, and initial knowledge of economics, the authors find no evidence of increased learning using end-of-semester measures …

Setting An Agenda For The Future, Sam Allgood, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Anniversaries are a time for reflection and planning for the future. The fiftieth year of the Journal of Economic Education motivated us to invite those who have been intimately involved with the Journal to provide reflections, which appear within this symposium. In addition to providing a wealth of information about the past, they set the stage for initiatives that support the path forward.

Switching Majors – Into And Out Of Economics, Tisha L. N. Emerson, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

Using student transcripts from six institutions over a 23-year timespan, the authors investigate the movement of students into and out of the economics major. Considerable movement between majors occurs with 83 percent of economics graduates switching in after their first principles course. These eventual majors come from a variety of sources, but primarily from business, engineering, science & math. In an absolute sense, weaker students (as measured by cumulative GPA) switch into economics. However, students appear to move to disciplines of relative academic strength (as indicated by relative grades). While females from other majors are less likely to switch into …

What Should We Teach In Intermediate Macroeconomics?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The major focus of a course in Intermediate Macroeconomics is building and understanding macroeconomic models and how they work. The course is the most analytical course in the curriculum and should lead students to embark on deep thinking about models and equilibrium. Students learn the essentials of a model and develop the concept of how to simplify a model to understand key concepts. Once the core of a model is developed, additional model features can be added to increase realism. Perhaps the most important macroeconomic concept in the course is that of general equilibrium—students learn to go beyond examining initial …

50 Years Of Economic Instruction In The Journal Of Economic Education, Gail M. Hoyt, Kimmarie Mcgoldrick

Economics Faculty Publications

With 2019 marking the fiftieth year of publication of the Journal of Economic Education (JEE), it seems fitting to examine the evolution of economic instruction as portrayed in the Journal. Born of the American Economic Association (AEA), and first edited by members of the AEA’s Committee on Economic Education (Saunders 2012), it is not surprising that the Journal’s focus as chronicler, proponent, and outlet for economic education activity reflects the educational component of the American Economic Association’s mission. The creation of the Journal signaled a self-awareness in the discipline that we needed to be more deliberate in …

Teaching Courses In Macroeconomics And Monetary Policy With Bloomberg Analytics, Dean D. Croushore, Hossein S. Kazemi

Economics Faculty Publications

In this article, the authors illustrate the use of Bloomberg for analyzing topics in macroeconomics and monetary policy in economics and finance courses. The hands-on experience that students gain from such a course has many benefits, including deeper learning and clearer understanding of data. The authors describe goals and learning objectives, then compare Bloomberg with Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). In addition, they provide examples of how to use Bloomberg in the classroom, describe how to have students perform sector analysis, show how Bloomberg tools are useful for analyzing monetary policy, discuss how to use Bloomberg to analyze the financial …

Currency Unions And Trade: A Ppml Re-Assessment With High-Dimensional Fixed Effects, Mario Larch, Joschka Wanner, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin

Economics Faculty Publications

Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues associated with the three-way (exporter-time, importer-time, and country-pair) fixed effects currently recommended in the gravity literature have heretofore limited the choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we introduce an iterative Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation procedure that facilitates the inclusion of these fixed effects for large data sets and also allows for correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a …

Antecedents To The Crisis: Mandeville, Smith, And Keynes, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to present the methods of teaching about the global financial crisis (GFC) from a social economic perspective. Using primary texts from the history of economic thought, the moral underpinnings for collective social action are examined in times of economic depression. The deregulation of financial markets raises two questions: to what extent is deregulation the result of a misunderstanding about human nature and the behavioral lessons of social economics; and to what extend does deregulation ignore the moral lessons of Adam Smith’s invisible hand?

Fiscal Surprises At The Fomc, Dean D. Croushore, Simon Van Norden

Economics Faculty Publications

We examine a new set of U.S. fiscal forecasts from FOMC briefing books. The forecasts were precisely those presented to monetary policymakers and include frequently updated estimates covering six complete business cycles and several fiscal-policy regimes. We detail the performance of forecast federal expenditures, revenues, surpluses, and structural surpluses in terms of accuracy, bias, and efficiency. We find that forecast errors can be economically large, even at relatively short forecast horizons. While economic activity became less volatile after 1990, fiscal policy became harder to forecast. Finally, cyclically adjusted deficit forecasts appear to be overoptimistic around both business cycle peaks and …

On The Widely Differing Effects Of Free Trade Agreements: Lessons From Twenty Years Of Trade Integration, Scott L. Baier, Yoto V. Yotov, Thomas Zylkin

Economics Faculty Publications

We develop a novel two stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different trading pairs for the years 1986-2006. We then employ these estimates as our dependent variable in a “second stage” analysis characterizing the heterogeneity in these effects. Interestingly, most of this heterogeneity (∼ 2/3) occurs within FTAs (rather than across different FTAs), with asymmetric effects within pairs (on exports …

Teaching International Microenterprise Development: An Interdisciplinary Experiential Learning Approach, Catherine Y. Co, Jonna L. Holland

Economics Faculty Publications

In this article, the authors describe the core elements of an integrative economics-marketing course on international microenterprise development. The course covers issues related to poverty, market approaches to poverty alleviation, various methods to elicit willingness to pay, market segmentation, market research techniques, fair trade, and other topics. Students apply concepts and methods learned to a live case study. Assignments and in-class activities are designed to turn the handicraft work of four groups of ethnic minority women in a mountainous region of Vietnam into a viable and sustainable microenterprise.

Did Dr-Cafta Affect The Exports Of The Dominican Republic To The United States?, Maria Ivanova Reyes Peguero, Asger V. Hansen

Economics Faculty Publications

This article evaluates the impact the Dominican Republic and Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) had on the exports of the Dominican Republic (DR) to the United States. We estimate a gravity model for the DR exports to the 109 trade partners of the country from 1990 to 2014. This model quantifies the effect of the DR-CAFTA since 2007, when the agreement was ratified, and finds that the DR-CAFTA negatively affected DR exports to the US. We conduct further analysis of factors that could explain the decline in exports, in spite of the ratification of the agreement. We find that …

Coordination Costs, Market Size, And The Choice Of Technology, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

Impact of coordination costs and market size on a firm’s choice of technology is studied in a general equilibrium model in which firms engage in oligopolistic competition. A firm establishes an organizational hierarchy to coordinate its production. First, it is shown that an increase in market size leads a firm to choose a more specialized technology. Second, surprisingly, a robust result is that an increase in the level of coordination efficiency leads a firm to choose a less specialized technology.

Improving Student Performance Through Loss Aversion, Ben O. Smith, Rebekah Shrader, Dustin R. White, Jadrian J. Wooten, Steve Nath, Michael O'Hara, Nan Xu, Robert Rosenman

Economics Faculty Publications

Framing an outcome as a loss causes individuals to expend extra effort to avoid that outcome (Tversky & Kahneman, 1991). Since classroom performance is a function of student effort in search of a higher grade, we seek to use loss aversion to encourage student effort. This field quasi-experiment endows students with all of the points in the course upfront, then deducts points for each error throughout the semester. Exploiting two course sequences in the business school of a Midwestern university, a control for domain-specific knowledge, this study examines the impact of loss aversion when controlling for the student’s knowledge in …

Financial Education And Financial Literacy By Income And Education Groups, Jamie Wagner

Economics Faculty Publications

This study examines associations between financial education and financial literacy among people with different levels of education and income using a large, national data set, the 2015 National Financial Capability Study. This study estimates whether financial education in high school, college, or through an employer, is associated with a person 's financial literacy score. Results show that people who received any financial education are likely to have higher financial literacy scores compared to those without financial education. Financial education has larger predicted probabilities for those with lower education and income, suggesting that financial education is especially important for this demographic …