Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Counterfactual Conditional Analysis Using The Centipede Game, Ahmed Bilal

CMC Senior Theses

The Backward Induction strategy for the Centipede Game leads us to a counterfactual reasoning paradox, The Centipede Game paradox. The counterfactual reasoning proving the backward induction strategy for the game appears to rely on the players in the game not choosing that very same backward induction strategy. The paradox is a general paradox that applies to backward induction reasoning in sequential, perfect information games. Therefore, the paradox is not only problematic for the Centipede Game, but it also affects counterfactual reasoning solutions in games similar to the Centipede Game. The Centipede Game is a prime illustration of this paradox in …

First Movers In Marijuana: Tourism Boom Or Bust?, Henry Klyce Minervini

CMC Senior Theses

In 2014, Colorado and Washington legalized the cultivation, sale, and consumption of recreational marijuana for anyone over the age of 21. In doing so, the two states presented the first opportunities for marijuana-specific tourism in the United States. Direct benefits of legalization to these first movers, namely tax revenues generated through the sale of marijuana, have been quantified, but the indirect benefits in the tourism sector are as of yet unquantified. Although there is a large body of informal literature and popular media on marijuana tourism, academic study of the subject is scant. Working with a panel composed of 47 …

The Effect Of Neighborhood Crime Rates On Childhood Obesity In Los Angeles County, Lachlan Montgomery

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the effect of neighborhood crime rates on childhood obesity in Los Angeles County over a five-year period 2012-2016. Using yearly pooled cross-sectional geocoded data from the University of Southern California (USC) Price Center for Social Innovation Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC) interactive platform, I run multiple ordinary least squares regressions using different measures of crime to determine if neighborhoods with higher crime rates influence the unhealthy percentage of 5^th, 7^th, and 9^thgrade public school students. I hypothesize that crime influences obesity, violent crime has a stronger correlation than property crime, …

Economics Impacts Of Genetically Modified Organisms: An Analysis Of Bt Cotton In India, Joseph Lahorgue

CMC Senior Theses

The emergence of genetically modified organisms has sparked a multi-faceted debate, covering issues related to human health, ethics, and the environment. Discussions of the economics of GMO adoption are highly politicized and are influenced by large corporations and non-governmental organizations. This study aims to provide insight into the economic impacts of genetically modified organisms on individual farmers of cotton in India. The first GMO to reach commercialization in India was Bt cotton in 2002, which led to significant increases in revenue and yield among smallholder farmers. Using survey data collected between 2003 and 2009, I examine the economic impacts of …

All Recessions Are Not Equal: The Effect Of Sectoral Shifts On Unemployment Using Regional Data, Eamon Gallagher

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the effect that variation in employment between industries has had on the depth of recession faced by Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States. This analysis is limited to the previous two national recessions. I use regression analysis to find that increases in variation in employment has a significant effect on the maximum increase in unemployment rate in MSAs after controlling for relevant MSA characteristics. In this framework I also find that increases in education could mitigate the negative effects of this variation. I include several other measures of depth of recession including the fall in …

The Impact Of Regional Return On Education On The Self-Selection Of Mexican Immigrants, Warren Chen

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses the 2010 Mexican Population and Housing Survey to examine the role of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study uses a standard linear regression model to predict the educational attainment of migrants and compares it to the educational attainment of non-migrants in each Mexican State. It finds evidence of negative selection, that less educated Mexican citizens are more likely to migrate to the United States. It also finds little evidence of the impact of regional return to education on migrant selection. The study offers potential explanations for the lack of impact and suggests avenues for …

Leveraged Buyouts: The Predictive Power Of Target Firm Characteristics, Yutao (James) Jiang

CMC Senior Theses

This paper utilizes a hazard model to predict the probability of leveraged buyout transactions for public firms. Rather than testing specific hypotheses, this paper incorporates all plausible predictors identified in existing literature to better delineate the effects of different characteristics. Largely confirming past results, I find that LBO transactions are more likely to occur for companies with more stable cash flows, less market visibility, lower market valuation, lower ownership concentration and lower costs of financial distress. By including LBO transactions from 1980 to September 2018, I find preliminary evidence that since the financial crisis of 2008 – 2009, private equity …

The Changing Nature Of Work, Leadership, And Organizational Culture In Future Ready Organizations, Saloni Dhir

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The relationship between individual and organizational performance is a key challenge for leaders in modern organizations, especially with the current disruption in technology and innovation. This thesis is a literature review and compilation of the relevant empirical evidence on various processes of industrial groups and organizational characteristics such as the changing nature of work, leadership, and company culture in detail. I investigate the complex challenges that millennials and organizations are facing in the current VUCA work environment as well as their potential responses to these changes. I map out the evolution of the concept of work and compare changes …

The Effectiveness Of Collaboration Within Supply Chain Management: A Case Study Of Adidas Group, Daniel Carr

CMC Senior Theses

For a multi-national company like Adidas, supply chain management is one of the most crucial aspects of business operations. Products cannot be sold unless Adidas’s supply chain is well-managed and efficient, and public perception of a brand/company is critical to success.

This case study analyzes the effectiveness of Adidas's distinct “collaborative approach” to supply chain management, which is characterized by not only monitoring and auditing suppliers, but also training them to make Adidas’s standards their own and approaching suppliers with the intention of building long-term relationships where the suppliers can become self-sufficient.

This study reviews the structure of Adidas's supply …

Modeling Returns On Carbon Emission Allowances: An Application To Rggi, James Keneally

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis attempts to model the returns on Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances using logged monthly returns from 2011-2018. This asset, shown to be a useful diversifier in portfolios, has been identified by previous literature to behave similarly to commodities. I used auto-regressive, GARCH, and Markov regime switching models to analyze the returns because the returns displayed changing volatility. These models were comparatively analyzed both in and out-of-sample. In this limited data analysis, the Markov model outperformed both alternatives in-sample. The Markov and Garch models displayed similar predictive power out-of-sample, however neither were particularly effective.

Love At First Byte: An Economic Analysis Of The Internet Dating Apocalypse, Hamsa Srikanth

CMC Senior Theses

We’re often warned that the internet will hasten the dating apocalypse. The internet (it is posited) is depriving us of the elusive in-person magic, and modern courtship is now little more than love at first byte.

There remains uncertainty, however, about what the independent impact of the internet on the dating market has been. Similar to the internet, the telephone also changed the way we communicate, but its effect on the dating market was mostly complementary to the 'traditional' ways of meeting – i.e. calling your school crush at home. So the question remains: Is the effect of the …

M&A Performance: Market’S Initial Reaction As An Unbiased Indicator Of Post-Acquisition Performance, Nikolaos Papageorgiou

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the reliability of the stock market’s initial reaction to M&A announcements as a predictor of actual post-acquisition performance. The two prevailing methods for evaluating M&A performance are event studies (stock market-based measures) and accounting-based measures. The present study combines these two performance evaluation approaches in a single empirical examination. Both the post-merger buy-and-hold abnormal returns and changes in ROA are used as actual post-acquisition performance variables. The acquirer’s cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around the announcement is used as the market predictor variable. An econometric model is employed to test the predictive power of the announcement-period CAR on …

Evolving Conceptions Of Sovereignty As Applied To Membership In International Organizations, Luke C. Radice

CMC Senior Theses

In the current international climate, both nations and individuals increasingly question both the validity and necessity of international organizations. This paper seeks to answer some of those questions, and to determine why countries choose to surrender significant portions of the national power that they are afforded under traditional perceptions of “Westphalian sovereignty”. This question is answered through an analysis of historical political thought on the concept of Sovereignty, then is applied to two case studies: the United Nations and the European Union, in which the benefits and downsides of surrendering sovereignty are discussed. Ultimately, this thesis concludes that the concept …

Leveraging Trade Agreements To Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Accordance With The Paris Agreement, Sam Becker

CMC Senior Theses

Climate change is the most obvious and pressing impairment of the biological, physical, and chemical systems. To help mitigate this unprecedented problem, I present heads of state, policymakers, and members of civil society with a set of new provisions that they can include in their trade agreements to drive emissions reduction from countries inside and outside of their trade agreements, maintain their ability to compete in an increasingly globalized world, and comply with international trading rules. Ultimately, I seek to demonstrate the untapped potential for leveraging trade agreements to reduce emissions in the midst of an international system that lacks …

Alleviating Poverty In Sub-Saharan Africa, Owen Dubeck

CMC Senior Theses

While most of the world has been able to dramatically reduce extreme poverty rates, Sub-Saharan Africa has failed to do so and is the only region in the world with more people living in extreme poverty than thirty years ago. This thesis will develop a policy framework for alleviating poverty by drawing from countries that are performing surprisingly well and poorly in the region. The thesis concludes with an analysis of whether education, health, or agricultural sectors should be receiving more or less funding based on expected rates of return and the feasibility of policy successes.

An Analysis Of The Impact Of The Section 232 Steel And Aluminum Tariffs: Primary Metal Manufacturing Employment In 2016 Trump And Clinton Majority Counties, Sarah Malott

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the potential impact of the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum on employment using county-level data. This study finds that although employment has increased in steel and aluminum related manufacturing industries, it has decreased in a significant downstream industry of manufacturers of steel products. Furthermore, I analyzed the difference in employment trends between counties that voted majority Trump in the 2016 presidential election and counties that voted majority Clinton, and between counties that experienced marginal victories and counties that voted solidly Democrat or Republican. I find that Trump counties have experienced the impact of the tariffs …

A Nuanced Look At Gender Interactions On Informal Employment And Income In Argentina And Uruguay, Teagan Knight

CMC Senior Theses

There are many existing studies characterizing the informal sector in Latin America, but the literature fails to fully examine the interactions between gender and disadvantaging factors on the probability of informal employment and its returns to wage. This analysis uses survey data from Argentina (2001) and Uruguay (2006) to examine the heterogeneous effects of number of children under 5, education, minority status, and migrant status on male and female informal employment and income. Being female interacts with number of children under 5 to create no effect on probability of informal employment, in contrast to a significant negative effect for men. …

The Role Of Quality Education In The Economic Development Of Mexico, Betzayra Perez

CMC Senior Theses

Mexico’s education system ranks among the lowest in terms of quality and achievement levels. Given the importance of education for a country’s economic development, it is crucial to understand how improvements in Mexico’s education quality can result in economic growth for the country. This thesis aims to create awareness about how the quality of learning rather than total schooling can result in improving Mexico’s economic development. First, a general literature review provides significant findings of the quality of education, the difference between learning and schooling, and educational equity, and its effects on economic development. Moreover, a detailed overview of the …

Are Cds Auctions The Tail Wagging The Dog? An Empirical Study Of Corporate Bond Return Volatility At The Time Of Default, Jennifer Mace

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past decade, numerous engineered credit events and cases of market participants manipulating bond prices to influence Credit Default Swap (CDS) auction payouts have occurred. These cases have become increasingly common, and the CFTC has stated they may constitute market manipulation and undermine not only the CDS market but also the credit derivative and default markets. Although there is a plethora of news and media coverage on publicized cases, there is no previous empirical research on evidence of these practices. This paper is motivated by the desire to determine if there is indirect evidence of bond price manipulation around …

What Do We Know About The Recent Performance Of Indian Banks?, Laira Aggarwal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the performance of Indian banks by studying the effects of recent reforms and macroeconomic events. Indian banks went through a period of reforms in the past twenty years. The impact of these reforms and major macroeconomic events has been examined using time-series analysis. Event studies offer additional perspective on the short-run effect of the events on different types of Indian banks. Although, the event dates are not all statistically significant in the time-series regressions, the demonetization of 2016 is significant in the event study analysis. Thus, while reforms and events have immediate impact on the performance of …

The Impacts Of Supra-Regional Multi-Resort Season Passes: A Hedonic Pricing Model Of Single-Day Lift Tickets For Us Ski Areas, Sijia Lai

CMC Senior Theses

Numerous media analyses claim that supra-regional multi-resort season passes (mega passes) are negatively impacting skiing, snowboarding, and winter-sport communities. In particular, media claims that ski areas on these season passes are charging higher single-day lift ticket prices to nudge people to buy their season pass products. To test this claim, I use a hedonic pricing model to estimate the impact of season passes on adult single-day lift ticket prices. By applying OLS regressions to a dataset of 302 US ski areas for the winter of 2018-19, I find that the ski areas on the leading season passes (Ikon and Epic …

The Fall Of The 10-K Report: Measuring The Impact Of Accounting Ratios On Financial Performance, Matthew Daruty

CMC Senior Theses

The annual 10-K report has historically been the most important aspect in assessing the position of a publicly held company. However, as the flow of information has increased with the dawn of new technologies, less and less attention has been paid to these audited financial statements. In order to assess if investors are still reacting to the information contained in the annual report, this paper examines the relationship between accounting ratios and stock price in banks traded on United States stock exchanges. By examining accounting ratios instead of simply looking at Earnings Per Share, new information was revealed regarding what …

Trump, 2018 Trade War Edition: An Analysis Through The Political And Economic Perspectives, Yue Shen

CMC Senior Theses

President Trump’s presidency can be characterized as unpredictable, controversial, and unconventional. One such instance is America’s departure from decades of free-trade advocacy under his administration and engagement in trade disputes with numerous nations. By viewing the 2018 trade dispute through the political and economic perspectives, this thesis aims to understand what the motivating factors are for Trump and his administration to pursue such extensive protectionist policies. The author analyzes the tariffs through two main categories: those that target an adversarial power, China, and those that target traditional allies like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The thesis finds that, politically …