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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2021 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Qingyan Jiang
Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2021 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Qingyan Jiang
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)
Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China's economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China's economic development in 2020 and forecasts China's economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that …
Forecasting China’S Foreign Trade For 2021, Yunjie Wei, Xun Zhang, Yuying Sun, Yun Bai, Shouyang Wang
Forecasting China’S Foreign Trade For 2021, Yunjie Wei, Xun Zhang, Yuying Sun, Yun Bai, Shouyang Wang
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)
This study analyzes the situation of China's foreign trade from January to November in 2020, and then three forecasting scenarios are constructed based on four aspects, including China's economic growth, the international demand, Sino-US trade friction, and the development of the COVID-19. Under these scenarios, a new decomposition and composition methodology is proposed to forecast 2021 China's foreign trade, by integrating the econometric models, artificial intelligence methods, and the system analysis method. In 2021, under the baseline scenario that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under certain control, the global economy exhibits slow recovery and China's economy grows steadily, the total …