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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Place Distress And Job Growth: Are Recent Job Growth Trends Significantly More Favorable For Distressed Counties?, Timothy J. Bartik, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman
Place Distress And Job Growth: Are Recent Job Growth Trends Significantly More Favorable For Distressed Counties?, Timothy J. Bartik, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman
Reports
This paper examines whether recent job growth trends have become more favorable toward counties with greater baseline economic distress. Job growth trends are “competitive job growth,” which is defined as growth that exceeds what would be expected based on how a county’s industries are growing nationally. Baseline county distress is measured by the county’s “prime-age employment rate,” the employment to population ratio for 25–54-year-olds. The core findings are fourfold. First, for the most distressed counties, job growth trends have become more favorable since 2019, compared to the 2001–2007 and 2007–2019 periods. The timing of this recent improvement is consistent with …
The Long-Run Impacts Of Public Industrial Investment On Local Development And Economic Mobility: Evidence From World War Ii, Andrew Garin, Jonathan Rothbaum
The Long-Run Impacts Of Public Industrial Investment On Local Development And Economic Mobility: Evidence From World War Ii, Andrew Garin, Jonathan Rothbaum
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during the United States’ industrial mobilization for World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent impacts on local development, characterized by an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era. These benefits were shared by incumbent residents; we find men born before WWII in counties where plants were built earned $1,200 (in 2020 …
Policies For Place: How To Make Sustainable Investments In Communities, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Lee Adams, Brian J. Asquith, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Gabrielle Pepin, Bridget F. Timmeney, Beth C. Truesdale, Yulya Truskinovsky
Policies For Place: How To Make Sustainable Investments In Communities, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Lee Adams, Brian J. Asquith, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Iryna V. Lendel, Gabrielle Pepin, Bridget F. Timmeney, Beth C. Truesdale, Yulya Truskinovsky
Reports
No abstract provided.
Broadly Shared Local Economic Success Since 2000: New Measures And New Lessons For Communities, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research
Broadly Shared Local Economic Success Since 2000: New Measures And New Lessons For Communities, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research
Reports
In recent decades, many local labor markets—especially those in former industrial areas—have experienced lagging employment rates, hourly wages, and annual earnings. Even in places that have thrived, disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups and those with less education have often fared poorly, and long-term growth has bypassed many Americans at the middle and bottom of the income distribution. This report examines the relative economic success over the past two decades (prior to the COVID pandemic) of different local labor markets throughout the United States, both for residents overall and for those of different demographic groups. We construct a new, publicly available …
Daca, Mobility Investments, And Economic Outcomes Of Immigrants And Natives, Jimena Villanueva Kiser, Riley Wilson
Daca, Mobility Investments, And Economic Outcomes Of Immigrants And Natives, Jimena Villanueva Kiser, Riley Wilson
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.
Daca, Mobility Investments, And Economic Outcomes Of Immigrants And Natives, Jimena Villanueva Kiser, Riley Wilson
Daca, Mobility Investments, And Economic Outcomes Of Immigrants And Natives, Jimena Villanueva Kiser, Riley Wilson
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Exploiting variation created by Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), we document the effects of immigrant legalization on immigrant mobility investments and economic outcomes. We provide new evidence that DACA increased both geographic and job mobility of young immigrants, often leading them to high-paying labor markets and licensed occupations. We then examine whether these gains to immigrants spill over and affect labor market outcomes of U.S.-born workers. Exploiting immigrant enclaves and source-country flows of DACA-eligible immigrants to isolate plausibly exogenous variation in the concentration of DACA recipients, we show that in labor markets where more of the working-age population can …
Employment, Income, And Poverty In Kalamazoo City Core Neighborhoods, Val Klomparens
Employment, Income, And Poverty In Kalamazoo City Core Neighborhoods, Val Klomparens
Reports
This report employs a traditional methodology using American Community Survey data to examine employment, income, and poverty in three neighborhoods in Kalamazoo, Michigan: Eastside, Northside, and Edison. These neighborhoods are studied with an emphasis on eligibility status for the Distressed Area Recompete Pilot Program, administered through the U.S. Economic Development Administration. Eastside residents are unique in that a larger share earn income through wages or employment than do Michigan residents, yet their median income falls below those at the county and state levels in a statistically significant way. The Edison neighborhood is characterized by greater income inequality than the other …
Scoring Soar, Timothy J. Bartik
Scoring Soar, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Policy Papers
This paper estimates the benefits and costs of the incentive package provided to the proposed Ford battery plant in Marshall, Michigan. This project, announced in February 2023, involves a state and local business incentive package whose undiscounted value is $1.7 billion, and which is awarded to a plant that will eventually create 2,500 permanent jobs. The incentive package is analyzed using the Bartik Benefit-Cost Model of Incentives. The model’s estimates suggest that the incentive package has economic benefits whose present value is over 1.8 times the project’s incentive costs. Most of these benefits are higher earnings per capita for Michigan …
Getting The Workforce Into Good Jobs Requires Place-Based Policies, Timothy J. Bartik
Getting The Workforce Into Good Jobs Requires Place-Based Policies, Timothy J. Bartik
Presentations
No abstract provided.
Benefits And Costs Of An Incentive Project Or Program For State Residents: A Model For Flexible Use In Any State, Timothy J. Bartik
Benefits And Costs Of An Incentive Project Or Program For State Residents: A Model For Flexible Use In Any State, Timothy J. Bartik
Presentations
No abstract provided.
An Introduction To The Bartik Benefit-Cost Model Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik
An Introduction To The Bartik Benefit-Cost Model Of Business Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik
Reports
This short report provides an introduction to a new model of the benefits and costs of business incentives to promote state economic development. This model provides potential users—anyone interested in evaluating an incentive project or incentive program in their state—with a model that can be used for practical evaluation purposes, such as deciding whether or not a project should be undertaken, whether or not to expand or terminate a current incentive program, or how an incentive program could be improved by reforms to have higher net benefits. What is most distinctive about the model is that it focuses on how …
Bartik Benefit-Cost Model Of Business Incentives: A User’S Guide, Timothy J. Bartik
Bartik Benefit-Cost Model Of Business Incentives: A User’S Guide, Timothy J. Bartik
Reports
This “user’s guide” explains a model for evaluating state or local business incentives. These incentives include tax breaks provided by state and local governments to business, to encourage local job growth. The model is intended to be used by state legislative audit bureaus, state and local economic development agencies, university centers for business research, economic development consulting firms, or any group that wants to evaluate an overall economic development program, or individual economic development projects. Users provide information on the incentives provided, and the incented jobs, and the model then produces estimates of the effects of the program on jobs, …
The Decline Of Routine Tasks, Education Investments, And Intergenerational Mobility, Patrick Bennett, Kai Liu, Kjell Salvanes
The Decline Of Routine Tasks, Education Investments, And Intergenerational Mobility, Patrick Bennett, Kai Liu, Kjell Salvanes
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
How does a large structural change to the labor market affect education investments made at young ages? Exploiting differential exposure to the national decline in routine-task intensity across local labor markets, we show that the secular decline in routine tasks causes major shifts in education investments of high school students, where they invest less in vocational-trades education and increasingly invest in college education. Our results highlight that labor demand changes impact inequality in the next generation. Low-ability and low-SES students are most responsive to task-biased demand changes and, as a result, intergenerational mobility in college education increases.
What Happens To Residents Evicted Under California’S Ellis Act?, Brian J. Asquith
What Happens To Residents Evicted Under California’S Ellis Act?, Brian J. Asquith
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.
The Effects Of An Ellis Act Eviction On Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Brian J. Asquith
The Effects Of An Ellis Act Eviction On Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, Brian J. Asquith
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
Rent-control advocates argue that its strongest feature is offering tenants strong protections from economic displacement. Nonetheless, rent control may have negative effects on tenants, as previous research has shown that these tenants have longer commutes and higher unemployment rates because they are incentivized to stay in place even after their location is no longer optimal. I study what happens to tenants when they are displaced from their rent-controlled apartments by exploiting a California law called the Ellis Act that allows landlords in Los Angeles and San Francisco to evict tenants even if they are lease-compliant, under the condition that all …
Helping Distressed Places: Best Practices And Needed Scale, Timothy J. Bartik
Helping Distressed Places: Best Practices And Needed Scale, Timothy J. Bartik
Presentations
No abstract provided.
Seize The Time: Needed Research On Local Economic Development In An Era Of Increased Attention To Problems Of Place, Timothy J. Bartik
Seize The Time: Needed Research On Local Economic Development In An Era Of Increased Attention To Problems Of Place, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Policy Papers
With the increased attention to place-based policies comes an increased need for policy-relevant research on local economic development. Within the policy area of local economic development, this paper identifies five types of research needs: 1) better definitions of local labor markets; 2) policy know-how on how local economic development’s benefits can be better spread to distressed neighborhoods; 3) evidence on what types of jobs have both good growth prospects in the U.S. economy yet also provide good long-run job opportunities in local labor markets for the majority of U.S. workers who lack a bachelor’s degree; 4) estimates of how local …
Mismatch In Local Labor Markets: How Demand Shocks To Different Occupations Affect Less- Or More-Educated Workers In Diverse Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Mismatch In Local Labor Markets: How Demand Shocks To Different Occupations Affect Less- Or More-Educated Workers In Diverse Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Technical Reports
This paper estimates the effects on local labor market outcomes (employment rates, real wages, real earnings) of local labor demand shocks to different types of occupations. Occupations are divided into three groups, “high, middle, and low,” with occupations differing in wages paid and education credentials required. Effects are considered on both workers with less than a four-year college degree and workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher. The strongest benefits for labor market outcomes come from demand shocks to “mid jobs.” Mid-job demand shocks particularly benefit less-educated workers. High-job demand shocks often hurt labor market outcomes for less-educated workers, in …
What Types Of Local Job Creation Most Benefit Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik
What Types Of Local Job Creation Most Benefit Residents?, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.
How State Governments Can Target Job Opportunities To Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik
How State Governments Can Target Job Opportunities To Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Technical Reports
The United States has two types of “place-based” jobs problems: low employment rates in 1) local labor markets and 2) neighborhoods. The local labor market problem can be dealt with by targeting distressed local labor markets for job creation. The neighborhood problem can be dealt with by targeting distressed neighborhoods with programs to improve residents’ job access. This report describes the magnitude of these place-based jobs problems and reviews research on the most cost-effective programs to address these problems. The report also reviews current state government efforts to target job opportunities to distressed places, pointing out that such targeting is …
How State Governments Can Help Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik
How State Governments Can Help Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in earnings per capita. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in transfers per capita, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral transfer programs redistribute considerable sums of money to places with depressed economic conditions.
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.
Labor Market Consequences Of Antitax Avoidance Policies, Katarzyna Bilicka
Labor Market Consequences Of Antitax Avoidance Policies, Katarzyna Bilicka
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
In this paper, I analyze the local labor market consequences of multinational firms reallocating employees across their affiliates in response to antitax avoidance policies. I leverage the introduction of a worldwide debt cap in 2010 in the United Kingdom as a quasi-natural experiment that limited one of the forms of profit shifting—debt shifting—for a group of multinational corporations (MNCs). Multinationals affected by the reform reallocated their employees from the United Kingdom to foreign locations. This affected London-based service sector firms the most. I show that this led to a reduction in the number of jobs available in regions exposed to …
Place-Based Jobs Policies: We Need To Boost Employment Rates In Distressed Places, But: One Size Does Not Fit All, Timothy J. Bartik
Place-Based Jobs Policies: We Need To Boost Employment Rates In Distressed Places, But: One Size Does Not Fit All, Timothy J. Bartik
Presentations
No abstract provided.
Bedford County Economic Needs Assessment, Dennis Burnside, Jim Robey, Brian Pittelko
Bedford County Economic Needs Assessment, Dennis Burnside, Jim Robey, Brian Pittelko
Reports
Bedford County Development Association (BCDA) engaged Juniper Solutions (“Juniper”) and The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (“Upjohn”), collectively the “Team,” to study the current economic conditions of Bedford County to assess potential opportunities from a workforce development and commercial real estate perspective. As part of this effort, the initial process entailed creating a baseline assessment leveraging a multitude of data sources, ranging from U.S. Census Bureau to subscription-based platforms like CoStar for commercial real estate and BurningGlass for job posting metrics. During the quantitative data collection, the the Team also met with stakeholders including public officials, County administrators, real …
Economic Outlook For Lakeshore Advantage: Getting To 2030, Jim Robey, Kathleen Bolter, Gerrit Anderson, Emily Boyle, Claudette Robey, Brian Pittelko, Jennifer Nichols, Minh Dang
Economic Outlook For Lakeshore Advantage: Getting To 2030, Jim Robey, Kathleen Bolter, Gerrit Anderson, Emily Boyle, Claudette Robey, Brian Pittelko, Jennifer Nichols, Minh Dang
Reports
Lakeshore Advantage, a nonprofit economic development organization serving businesses in Allegan and Ottawa counties, teamed up with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research to better understand the long-term economic health of its region. The Upjohn Institute conducted an analysis of Allegan and Ottawa counties to hone in on the strengths of these communities and offer insights on where improvements are needed to grow the region and achieve Lakeshore Advantage’s 2030 goals which include ranking at or above selected comparative communities for median household income, average annual pay, total employment growth, and educational attainment. This study includes an examination of …
Comments On Three Papers On Labor Market Effects Of Opportunity Zones, Timothy J. Bartik
Comments On Three Papers On Labor Market Effects Of Opportunity Zones, Timothy J. Bartik
Presentations
No abstract provided.
Long-Run Effects On Employment Rates Of Local Demand Shocks, Across And Within Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Long-Run Effects On Employment Rates Of Local Demand Shocks, Across And Within Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
This paper estimates the long-run effects on a county’s prime-age employment rate of labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). These effects are allowed to vary with local “distress” (baseline employment rate of the county or CZ), and with the size of the demand shock. In more distressed CZs, a county’s employment rate is more affected by county or CZ shocks. As a result, targeting or reallocating jobs to more distressed CZs will tend to raise employment rates. If a county is relatively distressed compared to its CZ, targeting job shocks at that county …
Job Creation Policies Can Raise Local Employment Rates, Especially For Distressed Communities, Timothy J. Bartik
Job Creation Policies Can Raise Local Employment Rates, Especially For Distressed Communities, Timothy J. Bartik
Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs
No abstract provided.