Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Forecasting Tourist Arrivals To The Bahamas Using Error Correction Models, Jacky Sharon Charles

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Tourism is the major domestic export for many countries in the Caribbean region. Given this, the variables which influence tourism demand in this region, as well as accurate forecasts, can assist policy makers in their planning efforts and growth strategies. This study utilizes error correction models (ECMs) to analyze tourism demand in the Bahamas. This is the first empirical attempt to estimate ECMs for tourism demand in the Caribbean region. Findings suggest that income and habit persistence/word of mouth advertising are the primary determinants of tourism demand in the Bahamas, while the cost of travel is generally insignificant. To assess …