Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Looking Forward While Being Pushed Back: How Accurate Were Economic Forecasts For Maine During The Pandemic?, Andrew Crawley, Angela Hallowell

Maine Policy Review

Economic forecasting is always a challenging process and how we understand the future often relies on what we have seen in the past. As COVID-19 case numbers began to increase, economies were forced to shutter and stay at home orders were implemented. In this paper, we compare our initial forecasts for output, employment, and tax revenue to actual values for 2020. Overall Maine’s economy was more resilient than our forecasts first predicted, with tax revenues far exceeding the initial projections. However, when the numbers are explored further it becomes clear that federal funds were a critical lifeline during turbulent times, …

The Economic Contribution Of Logging And Trucking In Maine, Megan R. Bailey, Mindy S. Crandall, Anil Raj Kizha, Sheldon Green

Economic Development

Maine's forest products industry has long been hailed as a backbone of the state's economy. Multiple reports have been commissioned detailing the economic role of the sector (e.g. Bailey, 2019; Anderson III and Crandall, 2016; Gabe, 2013). It was recently estimated that the forest products industry contributed $7.7 billion in output to the state's economy in 2016 (Bailey, 2019)

An essential component of the industry is logging—which directly effects the availability and cost of delivered wood. In 2014, researchers set out to specifically highlight the logging industry's economic role in Maine (Crandall, McCullock, Nick, Kizha, 2016). The work presented here …

Maine Energy Overview, Mariya Pominova, Jonathan Rubin

Economic Development

The state of Maine is a regional leader in renewable energy production and highly ranked nationally in proportion of renewable energy consumed. Maine is 3^rd in the nation for highest percentage of renewable energy consumption as a share of state total (Maine State Energy Profile 2019). However, 61% of all primary energy consumed in Maine in 2017 was from non-renewable sources, about half of which were petroleum products. Because Maine does not have oil and natural gas reserves, it is reliant on oil and natural gas imports. This causes Maine to be subject to the volatility of national and …

Rummaging Through The Attic Of New England, Brieanne Berry, Jennifer Bonnet, Cindy Isenhour

Anthropology Student Scholarship

The concept of the circular economy has taken off, gaining momentum along with concerns about resource depletion, waste, and the impending ‘end of cheap nature’ (Moore 2014). Environmentalists and industrialists alike have promoted the benefits of reuse as a means toward improved efficiency and reduced resource pressure. Some have called for a new ‘culture of reuse’ (Botsman and Rogers 2010; Stokes et al. 2014). It is in this context that we explore repair, resale, and reuse as practices with deep historical precedent and contemporary continuity. Are there lessons to be learned from places that are already home to circular economies …

Past, Present And Future Of Maine's Pulp And Paper Industry, Ariel Listo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The pulp and paper industry has historically been of paramount importance for the state of Maine, both from cultural and economic perspectives. The industry has been a vital part of the forest products economy and a large contributor to employment and state gross domestic product (GDP). However, the number of pulp and paper mills in Maine has declined sharply in the last few decades, deeply harming employment levels, local economies and the forest products sector of the most heavily forested state in the nation. This phenomenon has sparked efforts to understand the factors behind the downfall of Maine's pulp and …

Forecasting Labor Force Participation At The Regional Level In The United States: The Case Of Maine, Maryam Kashkooli

Honors College

This project attempts to investigate the future of labor force participation in Maine using an econometric forecasting approach. Forecasting has become an increasingly popular form of statistical analysis which uses historical distributions to help estimate future distributions of econometric models. There exists extensive literature on forecasting employment, however the literature on forecasting labor force participation is relatively small. I adapt existing econometric models and make use of time series information on sociodemographic factors such as age and net migration in order to determine how Maine’s changing demographic structure is affecting its labor force and how these effects will carry on …

The Fiscal Implications Of Inadequate Retirement Savings In Maine, Philip A. Trostel

Economic Development

This study estimates the future costs to taxpayers from new retirees in Maine and in the United States as a whole (and there are unreported estimates for each of the other 49 states). As in previous reports of this type,² “new retirees” refers to people turning age 65 in coming years. The projections are for the 15 years from 2018 through 2032.

Inadequate savings for retirement creates fiscal costs due to increased elderly reliance on public assistance (mostly in Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and housing assistance). An aging workforce moving into retirement is increasing public-assistance …

The Trans-Pacific Partnership’S Potential Economic Impact On Maine, Catherine Reilly Delutio, Philip A. Trostel

Maine Policy Review

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free-trade agreement (FTA) between 12 Pacific-Rim countries. If passed, it would be the largest FTA in which the United States participates. Catherine Reilly deLutio and Philip Trostel assess the potential impact of the TPP’s tariff reductions and quota increases on Maine’s economy. The results suggest that the TPP would likely generate slight increases in overall measures of Maine’s economy. The benefits would be relatively small and spread across the population.

Tying The Knot: The Importance Of Financial Literacy Education In Maine, David M. Leach

Maine Policy Review

David Leach discusses the importance of financial literacy and describes the Downeaster Consumer Guides, a series of publications on credit cards, debt collection, auto buying and financing, credit reports and scores, home buying and financing, consumer scams, student loans, consumer credit, elder financial protection, and high-interest loans published by Bureau of Consumer Credit Protection.

An Analysis Of The Maine Solid Waste Management Hierarchy And Recommendation For Future Implementation, Jaime Steven

Honors College

The current Solid Waste Management Hierarchy does not adequately deter land disposal of waste in Maine. In this paper, I analyze the Maine State Solid Waste Management Hierarchy as it reads in Title 38 M.R.S.A. § 2101, found in Appendix B. The purpose of this paper is to address the hierarchy’s issues, as well as to offer additions to the hierarchy that will help in its goal of reducing solid waste landfilled. In this paper I analyze the original intentions of the hierarchy when it was enacted, and addresses the faults within the hierarchy that do not aid these intentions …

The Economic Implications Of Maine’S Changing Age Structure, James Breece, Glenn Mills, Todd Gabe

Maine Policy Review

The authors analyze the major implications of Maine’s aging population on the state’s workforce and economy. They note that there are steps that can be taken to partially mitigate the negative impacts and capitalize on the opportuni­ties associated with an aging population.

Workforce Housing Design Charrette In York, Maine, Workforce Housing Coalition Of The Greater Seacoast, Maine Community Foundation

Maine Sea Grant Publications

The Workforce Housing Coalition of the Greater Seacoast organized a workforce housing design charrette in the community of York, Maine. The event was held over a two-day period, October 15 and 17, 2014. The process included a site walk, community dialogue session, and design workshop, culminating in a design reveal on October 17, 2014. This, the Coalition’s fifth annual design charrette, produced conceptual designs for the development of workforce housing opportunities on the subject sites located in the U.S. Route 1 and Vacation Drive vicinity of York, Maine.

Workforce Housing Design Charrette In Berwick, Maine, Workforce Housing Coalition Of The Greater Seacoast, Envision Berwick

Maine Sea Grant Publications

The Workforce Housing Coalition of the Greater Seacoast organized a workforce housing design charrette in the community of Berwick, Maine. The event was held over the two-day period of October 14 and 16, 2015. The process included a site walk, community dialogue session, and design workshop, culminating in a design reveal on October 16. This, the Coalition’s sixth annual design charrette. This produced conceptual designs for a mixed-use development that includes workforce housing for the charrette focus areas at the Prime Tanning and Estabrook School sites in Berwick, Maine.

Ripples From The East Coast Stream: Contributions From Migrant Hispanic Workers To Maine’S Wild Blueberry Industry, Vaishali Mamgain

Maine Policy Review

Interviews with 46 Hispanic migrant workers in the wild blueberry industry in Maine revealed they harvest different crops in several states and come to Maine at the end of the “East Coast Stream.” Although workers varied in productivity (and hence income), overall the group earned good income and contributed significantly to the Maine economy as workers and consumers. Based on these findings, governmental laws and policies are discussed in terms of their potential impact. A consideration of Maine’s aging population and interviews with employers demonstrate these workers’ importance: without them employers say, the wild blueberry industry would not be competitive.

Economic Development And Maine’S Sustainability Solutions Initiative, Caroline L. Noblet, Kathleen P. Bell, Charles Colgan, Mario Teisl

Maine Policy Review

The authors discuss how Maine’s Sustainability Solu­tions Initiative (SSI) can contribute to economic devel­opment in the state. SSI research is covering five of the seven targeted technology areas identified in recent reports as being important for economic development in the state (forestry and agriculture, environmental, information, composites, marine and aquaculture). The authors note how the broad scope of research carried out through SSI provides opportunities to catalyze new commercial opportunities. As important, SSI is providing many students with a unique learn­ing environment that will prepare them for the new knowledge-based economy.

Home Care Workers In Maine: Increasingly Essential Workers Face Difficult Job Conditions, Sandra S. Butler

Maine Policy Review

As the population in Maine ages, the need for home care workers is increasing. Turnover is high in this field and the longitudinal Home Care Retention Study (HCWRS; n = 261) reported herein examined predictors of turnover and work experiences of home care aides in Maine. Younger age, lack of health insurance and poorer mental health were among the predictors of termination for the 90 study participants who left their jobs. In telephone interviews, they spoke of low wages, inconsistent hours, unreimbursed mileage and poor communication with employers in describing why they had left their jobs. A follow-up inquiry with …

Maine’S Food-Related Workforce: Characteristics And Challenges, Valerie J. Carter

Maine Policy Review

As described in this article, people who produce, process, transport, sell, prepare, and serve food are a key part not only of the food system but the economy overall. In Maine, by a conservative estimate they are almost 17 percent of the total workforce and range from farmers and fishermen to truckers, cooks, waitstaff, and cashiers. Some work in food-related enterprises, while others perform food-related tasks in other kinds of organizations, such as schools or hospitals. Although the food-related workforce is diverse, the author points out that the majority of workers and entrepreneurs are poorly paid; many work only part-time; …

The Renaissance Of A Food-Based Economy In Skowhegan, Amber Lambke

Maine Policy Review

This case study discusses the example of Skowhegan, Maine, which is seeing the rebirth of a local food-based economy, focused on the development of a local grist mill and farmer’s market

Micmac Farms: From Community Garden To Four-Season Farm And Retail Outlet, Jane Caulfield

Maine Policy Review

This short case study describes how Maine’s Micmac tribe is developing “Micmac Farms” from a community garden to a four-season agricultural business.

Economic Assessment Of Children’S Health And The Environment In Maine, Mary E. Davis

Maine Policy Review

Reducing children’s exposure to environmental toxins is important for both moral and economic reasons. Mary Davis discusses the economic impact of envi­ronmentally related childhood illnesses in Maine, focusing on disease categories with fairly strong evidence connecting environmental pollution to childhood diseases: lead poisoning, asthma, neurobehavioral disorders, and cancer. Lead poisoning and neurobehavioral conditions are the most expen­sive because they lead to chronic diseases that are largely incurable and not easily treated. She concludes that state funding for initiatives aimed at reducing childhood exposure to environmental pollutants “would be money well spent.”

Prospects For A Rim County Population Rebound: Can Quality Of Place Lure In-Migrants?, David Vail

Maine Policy Review

David Vail asks whether population will rebound in Maine’s rural “rim” counties and whether investing to enhance “quality of place” can attract large numbers of rural settlers. Review of the evidence suggests that Maine’s rim counties are not experiencing a population rebound and that rural counties vary greatly in their ability to hold onto existing residents or attract new ones. Vail argues that quality-of-place investments should not be considered as a core development tool for rural areas, but that they can complement traditional rural economic policy measures. Since it is difficult to stimulate a major population movement to Maine’s rim …

The Early Childhood Workforce, Julie Dellamattera

Maine Policy Review

Julie DellaMattera describes how the strongest predic­tors of high-quality care and early education are the educational preparation of early educators, their continued training, compensation, and recognition of their professionalism. She presents information on the current patterns of educational preparation and poor compensation of early educators and offers recommendations to improve training and compen­sation. DellaMattera notes the need to also change public perceptions of those who work in the field of early care and education so that they are respected for their specialized knowledge.

The Dynamics Of Investments In Young Children, Philip A. Trostel

Maine Policy Review

Philip Trostel presents compelling evidence of the importance of early investment in young children, citing research demonstrating the economic and social benefits of such investments. He suggests that the lack of understanding of the cause-and-effect relationship between early childhood experiences and later-life consequences and a failure to conceptualize how things might be done in new ways are both obstacles. Trostel argues that investing in early childhood devel­opment benefits children for the rest of their lives, benefits government with reduced spending in other areas, and moreover is the “right thing to do.”

Biomass And Biofuels In Maine: Estimating Supplies For Expanding The Forest Products Industry, Jonathan Rubin, Kate Dickerson, Jacob Kavkewitz

Energy & the Environment

This paper estimates the renewable energy potential of Maine’s forest resources, and how much energy these resources could potentially provide the state. Using the most recent state-specific data available, and a methodology similar to the Billion Tons Report, we find that ethanol production from Maine’s forest residues could potentially provide 18% of Maine’s transportation (gasoline) fuels with a fermentation wood to ethanol process. Making Fischer-Tropsch diesel (F-T diesel) using forest residues can replace 39% of Maine’s petro-diesel consumption. Actual levels of biofuels that can be produced will depend on conversion factors and forestry residue removals that are subject to uncertainty.

Maine’S Aging Economy And The Economy Of Aging, Charles S. Colgan, Muskie School Of Public Service

Maine Center on Aging Research and Evaluation

This paper explores the demographics of aging in Maine and some of the important relationships between these trends and the economy. Growth in the Maine’s population of those 65 and older will substantially exceed growth in total population in Maine from 2000 to 2030. Furthermore, Maine’s elderly population will not occur evenly. These changes will alter perceptions about aging in American society, and there will no longer be a bright line between work and retirement, as the nature of work has changed, retirement savings may be inadequate, and family structure has changed. With increasing populations of older individuals in concentrated …

Economic Contributions Of Atv-Related Activity In Maine, Jonathan Rubin, Charles Morrris

Economic Development

Riding ATVs has become a highly visible recreational activity in Maine. During the 2003/2004 season from July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004 there were 59,057 ATVs registered in Maine to 45,561 separate households in Maine and from outside of Maine. During 2004, the Margaret Chase Smith Policy Center at the University of Maine in conjunction with the Maine Department of Conservation conducted a study to determine the total contribution to Maine’s economy that results from the spending related directly to the purchase and use of ATVs in Maine. We also examined the environmental and economic damages caused by ATVs.

The Creative Economy In Maine, Evan S. Dobelle

Maine Policy Review

In the Margaret Chase Smith Essay, Evan Dobelle reflects on Maine’s emerging creative economy. He notes the collaboration with the state’s universities and colleges, and points to the importance of developing “creative clusters.”

The Agent Institute: Develop An Infrastructure For Agent-Based Research And Development For The State Of Maine, George Markowsky, James L. Fastook, Elise Turner, Roy M. Turner, Laurence Latour

University of Maine Office of Research Administration: Grant Reports

This award provides support to establish The Agent Institute (AI), an organization anticipated to become self-sustaining and generally enhance research and development for the State of Maine. The AI will promote interactions between industry and foster computer-technology research, specifically in software development and software-hardware relationships in the area of robotics. Industrial applications in extreme or hazardous environments will be emphasized because agent-based systems are designed to read/sense environmental information, make decisions, and take actions based on the information sensed and processed.

The award provides an initial two years of salary support to hire an executive director and an administrative assistant. …

Learning And Earning In Vacationland: Promoting Education And Economic Opportunity In Maine, Anthony Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers

Maine Policy Review

Technological innovation, globalization and other economic forces together shape the structure of jobs and the way we work. Such forces have gained momentum over the last 40 years with the advent of a new economy that is increasingly reliant on skilled workers with a postsecondary education. This trend is evident in all sectors of Maine’s economy. In this article, Carnevale and Desrochers show where the jobs are in Maine and how the education attainment of those who hold such jobs has changed over the last 40 years. They look at where jobs will be in the future and the skills …

Economic Prosperity In Maine: Held Back By The Lack Of Higher Education, Philip A. Trostel

Maine Policy Review

Maine lags the nation in economic prosperity and in education attainment, and there is little doubt that the relative lack of higher education in Maine is a leading factor. In this article, Trostel looks at each of the three sources of Maine’s relatively low education attainment: the net emigration of college graduates (who are presumably in search of employment opportunities elsewhere); relatively fewer students going on to college; and the net emigration of high-school graduates leaving Maine to attend out-of-state postsecondary schools. While all three factors have happened in Maine to some extent, the net emigration of the state’s high-school …