Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

The Predictive Ability Of Stock Market Factors, Fatma Ahmed, Mohammed Elgammal Elgammal, David Gordon Mcmillan

Economics

Purpose – This paper aims to ask whether a range of stock market factors contain information that is useful to investors by generating a trading rule based on one-step-ahead forecasts from rolling and recursive regressions. Design/methodology/approach – Using USA data across 3,256 firms, the authors estimate stock returns on a range of factors using both fixed-effects panel and individual regressions. The authors use rolling and recursive approaches to generate time-varying coefficients. Subsequently, the authors generate one-step-ahead forecasts for expected returns, simulate a trading strategy and compare its performance with realised returns. Findings – Results from the panel and individual firm …

An Empirical Examination Of The Impact Of Economic Structural Change On Income Inequality: Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach, Maha Elhini, Rasha Hammam

Economics

This paper employs structural growth perspective to the analysis of income inequality in 43 countries over the period 2003-2017.The study utilizes two different panel estimation techniques. First, the panel least squares regression examines the relevance of Kuznets effect of the different economic sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and services on income inequality. Second, the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels gauges the long run impact of the change in sectoral value added as a proxy for structural change on inequality. PMG presents short run adjustments to be country-specific due to the widely different impacts of macroeconomic conditions and vulnerability …

Capital Structure And Political Connections: Evidence From Gcc Banks And The Financial Crisis, Fatma Ahmed, David Macmillan

Economics

Abstract Purpose – This paper investigates the effect of political connections on the capital structure of banks before and after the financial crisis in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Design/methodology/approach – This paper employs the natural experiment that the financial crisis offers and uses a difference-in-differences model to investigate the effect of political connections on capital structure. Capital structure is measured by the total debt to total assets ratio. Control variables include bank size, growth, profitability, coverage ratio and volatility. The research sample includes all the banks in the GCC from 2005 to 2016. Findings – The authors find that …

The Federal Funds Rate Effect On Subprime Mortgage Crisis Management: An Ardl Approach, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Anas Alqudah, Dimitrios Paparas, Ahmed Bani-Mustafa

Economics

Purpose: This research empirically investigated the effectiveness of the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on managing the subprime mortgage crisis.

Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to analyze the stability of the Fed’s monetary policy, thereby providing an alternative analysis tool.

Findings: Correlation analysis results showed a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and the labor market, a strong negative and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and the housing market, and a strong negative and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and price stability. In contrast, …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On The Standard & Poor 500 Index Sectors: A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model, Maha Elhini, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVID), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectors’ indices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and …

Does Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From Albania, Sam Hobbs, Dimitrios Paparas, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

Purpose: Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania.

Methodology: Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic …

Evaluating The Economic Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic, John Adams, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

No abstract provided.

Generalized Trust And Economic Growth: The Nexus In Mena Countries, Rania Miniesy, Mariam Abdelkarim Ms.

Economics

This study mainly examines the relationship between generalized/horizontal/social trust and economic growth in countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, considering the substantial decline in their trust values since 2005. The study utilizes a multiple linear regression model based on panel data comprising 104 countries over the period from 1999 to 2020. Trust data were obtained from the last four waves of the World Values Survey (WVS). A Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) estimation technique was used, and interaction terms between trust and several dummy variables were employed. The results show an overall positive and significant relationship …

Migrant Dreams, Egyptian Workers In The Gulf States, Rania M Rafik Khalil

English Language and Literature

Migrant Dreams is about the hopes and aspirations on which migrant workers thrive to achieve their goals. The first version of this book was published in 2017 in Arabic with the title Hatta yantahi al-naft (Until the End of Oil). Based on over a decade of fieldwork, observations and conversations, Samuli Schielke gives a detailed overview of the life of low-income Egyptian migrant laborers who relocated to the Arab Gulf States on temporary contracts, returned, then migrated again. The book focuses mostly on the story of Tawfik, an intelligent Egyptian young man from rural backgrounds who is compelled to achieve …

Evaluation Of Health Intervention: A Case Of Preschool Children In Egypt, Rania Megally, Hebatallah Ghoneim

Economics

“Good health and well-being” is the third of the Sustainable Development Goals, but it cannot be achieved without achieving goal two, “No Hunger.” Nutrition status is the foundation for healthy individuals, especially children. Developing countries have to set policies to solve malnutrition in order to ensure better health and well-being. This led the researchers to evaluate the impact of nutrition intervention on health outcomes in preschool children in Egypt, a lower middle-income country with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and anemia. The prevalence of anemia represents a major public health problem in the country; reaching 39.6%.The analysis is based …

Consumer Choice Of Counterfeits Or Generic Products: The Case Of Egypt, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Kenzy Seireg

Economics

The counterfeiting market is increasing at an alarming rate because consumers are often unwilling to pay for brand names. This study investigates the factors that influence consumers’ preferences toward counterfeit and generic products by studying Egyptian consumers. By surveying a sample of 271 consumers, our study concluded that demographic variables, perceived risk, and prior experience are insignificant factors in choosing counterfeits or generics, while price, taste and preferences, quality, the price of related products, subjective norms, and expected prices are variables that significantly affect consumer preferences and demand. The research concludes that consumers who care about the quality, expected prices, …

Towards Sustainable Development: Measuring Environmental Total Factor Productivity In Egypt, Hoda Hassaballa, Iman Al-Ayouty

Economics

Egypt’s heavy reliance on energy and capital-intensive industries currently hinders its drive towards achieving sustainable development goals. This paper studies environmental total factor productivity (ETFP) for ten energy-intensive industries using the Malmquist index and data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the period 2002-2014. Through incorporating CO2 emissions by energy intensive industries, DEA helps identify both environmentally-efficient and inefficient industries. Findings indicate that: i) ETFP has remained almost unchanged for the 10 industries, with ‘technical progress’ improvement almost fully outweighed by an efficiency deterioration, ii) excluding the environmental component indeed yields overestimated total factor productivity (TFP). In its estimation of ETFP, the …

Does A Change In Immigration Affect The Unemployment Rate In Host Countries? Evidence From Australia, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Anas Alqudah, Eman Elish

Economics

is study examines and evaluates the dynamic causality relationship between immigration, unemployment, wages and GDP per capita in host countries with a focus on Australia. Previous research has indicated that the economic impact of immigration is significant; nonetheless, its effect on the labour market being positive or negative is inconclusive. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the dynamic short- and long-run nexus between these variables in Australia over the period 1980–2016. The paper provides clear evidence to policymakers on the positive spillover effect of immigration policies developed by the Australian government.

Effectiveness Of Interest Rate Policy On The Management Of Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence From The United Kingdom, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This study examines the dynamic relationship between the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), the inflation rate, the unemployment rate and economic growth in the context of the UK, for the period 1992: Q1 to 2016: Q4. The study aims to evaluate the impact of the LIBOR on the management of macroeconomic stability in the UK during the period under review. The study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to examine the dynamic relationship between interest rates, unemployment and GDP. A co-integration test evaluates the long-run relationship between these variables, and the VAR Granger-causality tests the direction of causation among the …

University Technology Transfer Efficiency In A Factor Driven Economy: The Need For A Coherent Policy In Egypt, Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

The article examines the effectiveness of instruments to promote technology transfer and foster entrepreneurial innovation in Egypt where there are individual measures but no com- prehensive, unified policy or strategy to promote the transfer and commercialisation of the intellectual property stemming from university research. The study examines the extent of technology transfer in the country and the effectiveness of the various existing measures through a four-phase investigation involving in-depth interviews with experts, a question- naire survey of 400 Egyptian Science, Engineering and Technology academics, three case studies of Technology Transfer Offices and a 237 respondent industry survey. The results indicate …

Monte-Carlo Simulation Study Of Two-Stage Quantile Regression For Dynamic Panel Data, Hossameldin Ahmed, Alaa Ahmed Prof, Aya Afify Ms

Economics

No abstract provided.

Comparative Advantage As A Success Factor In Football Clubs: Evidence From The English Premier League (Epl), Bojan Georgievski, Lasha Labadze, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

As in international trade, football clubs can benefit more if they specialize in what they have or can create a comparative advantage. In a world of scarce resources, clubs need to identify what makes them successful and invest accordingly.

The main objective of this study is to understand what influences the success of football teams in the English Premier League (EPL) championship games. Based on Ricardo’s model of comparative advantage and applying Factor analysis as well as Panel data approach, this study investigates the need for specialization and tradeoffs between defensive and offensive patterns of the game in order for …

Equal Quantile Order For Two-Stage Quantile Regression For Dynamic Panel Data Models: Monte-Carlo Simulation Study, Hossameldin Ahmed, Aya Afify Ms, Alaa Ibrahim Prof

Economics

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Microfinance On Poverty Reduction In Egypt: An Empirical Study, Hala Elhadidi

Business Administration

Microfinance has become a critical tool in credit markets for poverty reduction and socioeconomic development. Yet its impact is still questioned and varies from one country to another and from urban to rural areas. This article examines the role of Egyptian microfinance on household income. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 780 established and new clients in Greater Cairo and rural areas in Egypt. The stratified random method was used to collect the data from urban and rural districts. The findings, using multinomial logistics, reveal that microfinance had a positive impact on the household income of women borrowers who spent three years …

Income Distribution, Fertility Behavior And Demographic Transition In Egypt, Sarah El-Khishin

Economics

Abstract - Demographic-economic interrelationships have been broadly examined in the literature from a macro perspective using mostly cross-country panel regressions. A limited strand of literature has emphasized the need to examine the demographic-economic dynamics in a reversed way; inspect dual-causality relation between demographic and economic factors. In this paper, I examine the effect of changes in income distribution and fertility behavior on the speed of demographic transition. I moreover examine the reverse relation by testing effect of changed household structure on income distribution and income disparities in Egypt. Empirical results show that wealth redistribution in Egypt and moving up to …

The Dynamic Interrelationship Between Interest Rate And Macroeconomic Policy Objectives: Case Of The United Kingdom, Mostafa Aboelsoud, Dimitrios Paparas, Azzouz Zouaoui, Mustafa Kasim

Economics

The objective of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the short- and long-run relationships between the short-term interest rate, London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) and macroeconomic policy objectives, such as price stability, economic growth, and stability of the exchange rate market. For this purpose, we deploy quarterly frequency data from the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2015 and adopt a multiple regression model.

Furthermore, this study uses the Johansen, Stock-Watson cointegration test and the Granger Causality test in order to examine the dynamic short- and long-run relationships among LIBOR, the consumer price index as a proxy of price …

The Impact Of Microfinance On Poverty Reduction In Egypt: An Empirical Study, Hala Elhadidi

Business Administration

Microfnance has become a critical tool in credit markets for poverty reduction and socioeconomic development. Yet its impact is still questioned and varies from one country to another and from urban to rural areas. This article examines the role of Egyptian micro nance on household income. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 780 established and new clients in Greater Cairo and rural areas in Egypt. The strati ed random method was used to collect the data from urban and rural districts. The ndings, using multinomial logistics, reveal that micro nance had a positive impact on the household income of women borrowers who …

A Micro-Invstigation Of The Reasons Behind Demographic Transition In Egypt: Will Egypt Witness A Demographic Window?, Sarah El-Khishin, Magued Osman, Heba Nassar

Economics

Abstract: The paper investigates the factors behind the slowdown in demographic transition in Egypt across different geographical and socio-economic groups. The authors relax the assumption of a uniform fertility behavior across households and re-visit interrelationships between demography and economic indicators from a micro perspective. Empirical findings reject mainstream beliefs that slow demographic transition in Egypt is attributed to the poorer, south-located and less-educated households. Fertility behaviors in Urban Egypt and among the high-educated females are found to be key contributors to the slowdown of demographic transition. Unemployment among the high-educated females in addition to lower public and foreign spending on …

University–Industry Collaboration In A Factor-Driven Economy: The Perspective Of Egyptian Industry, Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

This is the fourth article in a series dealing with the role of universities in the innovation process in Egypt. The first three examined the topic from the perspective of academia. They revealed that there was relatively little university–industry collaboration. Hence, this article focuses on university–industry collaboration from the perspective of industry. It is based on a questionnaire survey of 237 firms located in different industrial zones in Cairo. The findings confirm the low level of university–industry collaboration, with no more than 6% of the sample claiming to have links with academia. The lack of collaboration is found to stem …

Studying The Effect Of Corruption On Income Per-Capita Level In An Iv Estimation In Developing Countries, Hoda Hassaballa

Economics

Income per-capita is a measure of economic well-being. Through its effect on economic development, it can indirectly affect sustainable development. Hence, it is essential to study the determinants of Income per-capita Level. Recently, corruption level has played an influential role in determining income per-capita. However, theoretically and empirically its effect is still debatable. Besides the traditional determinants of income per-capita, the effect of corruption on Income percapita level is examined in a sample of developing countries between1996-2013. There is a potential endogeneity problem that arises from the two way relationship between corruption and income per capita levels which threatens internal …

The Impact Of Efficiency On Islamic Banks’ Performance: A Cross-Country Study, Fatma Ahmed, Khaled Hussainey, Elsayeda Ismail

Economics

This paper contributes to Islamic finance literature by offering large-scale evidence on the impact of efficiency on the performance of Islamic banks all over the world. Our initial sample includes all Islamic banks around the world. Using a sample of 151 Islamic Banks with financial years ending within the period January 2013 and December 2013, we examine, controlling for Bank-specific characteristics and country-specific characteristics, whether high efficiency leads to more profitability in Islamic Banks. We define higher efficiency as the lower Cost-to-income ratio. We find that higher levels of Islamic banks’ efficiency banks (i.e. lower Cost-to-income ratio) are positively associated …

The Impact Of Oil Sector On The Global Competitiveness Of Gcc Countries: Panel Data Approach, Anas Alqudah, Ahmed Badawi, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This study explores the impact of oil sector on the global competitiveness of the GCC states in a panel data framework for the period from 2006 to 2014. The focus is placed on how the non-traditional factors; oil rents, fuel exports as a percentage of merchandise exports, oil prices, and mining sector production impact on the global competitiveness of the GCC nations.

The study uses panel data techniques to measure the effect of the oil sector’s impact on of global competitiveness of the GCC countries. The results of the regression show that the relation between rent and GCI found to …

Universities And Innovation In A Factor-Driven Economy: The Performance Of Universities In Egypt., Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

In the modern knowledge-based global economy, universities are being required to operate more entrepreneurially, commercialising the results of their research and spinning out new knowledge-based enterprises. In this article, the third in the series (El Hadidi and Kirby, 2015a and b), case studies are presented of activities in 3 Egyptian universities in order to demonstrate what is being done and the challenges Egyptian universities are facing when attempting to collaborate with industry and contribute to the innovation process. The results reveal that the initiatives are often the result of external influences and are not embedded within the core strategic planning …

Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policies: The Case Of Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim

Business Administration

Coordination is defined as the necessary arrangements that assure that the decisions taken by monetary and fiscal authorities are not contradictory. The need for effective coordination of policies becomes pressing with the increasing independence of both authorities to implement their objectives. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent of coordination between monetary and fiscal policies in Egypt over the period (1974-2015). Quantifying the extent of coordination depends on the appropriate policy mix that responds effectively to different shocks. The results confirm that coordination of policies was absent or weak during most of the period under study, while …

The Attitude Of Egyptian Set Academics Towards Innovation: Universities And Innovation In A Factor-Driven Economy, Hala Elhadidi, David A. Kirby

Business Administration

In the modern knowledge economy universities are being required to operate more entrepreneurially, commercializing the results of their research and spinning out new ventures. The literature on the Triple Helix model (of academic–industry–government relations) is outlined, emphasizing – as does the model – the enhanced role that the modern entrepreneurial university plays in technological innovation. The study then examines the situation in Egypt where, as an earlier study demonstrated, innovation and the role of higher education in the innovation process are only weakly developed. Four hundred science, engineering and technology academics from eight of Egypt’s private and public universities were …