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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Decree Power In Parliamentary Systems: Theory And Evidence From India, Madhav Shrihari Aney, Shubhankar Dam
Research Collection School Of Economics
Decree powers are common to presidential systems; they are rarely found in parliamentary ones. We analyze decree powers in one such rare setting: India. We show that bicameral minority governments in India systematically use ordinances to circumvent parliament and prosecute their legislative agendas. They promulgate more ordinances, enact less legislation, and often repromulgate lapsed ordinances. These patterns suggest that, with bicameral minority governments, the locus of lawmaking shifts to the executive branch. While both majority and minority governments invoke ordinances, the latter do so systematically to get around their parliamentary deficit. In the hands of minority governments, then, the mechanism …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …
Jobs For Justice(S): Corruption In The Supreme Court Of India, Madhav S. Aney, Shubhankar Dam, Giovanni Ko
Jobs For Justice(S): Corruption In The Supreme Court Of India, Madhav S. Aney, Shubhankar Dam, Giovanni Ko
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate whether judicial decisions are affected by career concerns of judges by analyzing two questions: Do judges respond to incentives to pander by ruling in favor of the government in the hope of receiving jobs after retiring from the Supreme Court? Does the government reward judges who rule in its favor with prestigious jobs? We construct a data set of Supreme Court of India cases involving the government for 1999–2014. We find that incentives to pander have a causal effect on judicial decision-making, and they are jointly determined by the importance of the case and whether the judge retires …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …
Digital Payments And Consumption: Evidence From The 2016 Demonetization In India, Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Jing Li, Tianyue Ruan
Digital Payments And Consumption: Evidence From The 2016 Demonetization In India, Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Jing Li, Tianyue Ruan
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study how consumer spending responds to digital payments, using the differential switch to digital payments across consumers induced by the sudden 2016 Indian Demonetization for identification. Usage of digital payments rose by 3.38 percentage points and monthly spending increased by 3% for an additional 10 percentage points in prior cash dependence. Spending remained elevated even when cash availability recovered. Robustness analyses show that the spending response is not driven by income shocks, credit supply, price changes, or consumers' moving to the formal market. We provide evidence that digital payments increase consumer spending due to subdued salience.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …
Kick-Starting Economic Growth: An Interview With Dr K. V. Subramanian, India's Chief Economic Advisor, K V Subramanian, Havovi Joshi
Kick-Starting Economic Growth: An Interview With Dr K. V. Subramanian, India's Chief Economic Advisor, K V Subramanian, Havovi Joshi
Asian Management Insights
Dr K. V. Subramanian emphasises the importance of higher investment rates, good quality loans, and structural reforms for boosting India’s economic growth.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …
Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose
Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose
Asian Management Insights
Indian banks are currently experiencing poor performance when it comes to debt risk. Burdened with high non-performing loans (NPL), they are putting at risk the funds of investors as well as India’s industrial and economic growth. In addition, the loan management process itself is riddled with inefficiencies. To overcome them, we propose to use blockchain technology.
It’S Not Will You Succeed? But Can You Afford To Fail?, Girija Pande
It’S Not Will You Succeed? But Can You Afford To Fail?, Girija Pande
Asian Management Insights
With India and China’s economic ties no longer defined only by trade, the countries’ convergence is opening up new opportunities and challenges for businesses on either side seeking to cross the Sino-Indian border.