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Markov Switching Var Model Of Speculative Pressure: An Application To The Asian Financial Crisis, Gregorio Iii Alfredo Vargas

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Markov switching models with time-varying transition probabilities address the limitations of the earlier methods in the early warning system literature on currency crises. Most of the Markov switching models in the literature are largely based on univariate models of exchange rate fluctuations. In this thesis, the components of the index of speculative pressure are modeled using the Markov Switching VAR with time-varying transition probabilities of Martinez Peria (2002). Two approaches, both of which are derived from this model, are taken to determine the probability of a currency crisis: the probability of a turbulent regime and the expected value of the …