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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Initial Coin Offerings: The Role Of Subjective Information In Whitepapers, Jiahang Zhang
Initial Coin Offerings: The Role Of Subjective Information In Whitepapers, Jiahang Zhang
Honors Papers
Initial coin offerings (ICOs) are an unregulated form of financing that raises funds by issuing crypto tokens using blockchain technology. In this paper, I explore the relationship between the level of mispricing at ICOs and the subjectivity in whitepapers, which are documents released before ICOs that provide details on the features of the tokens. The subjective information is examined by indices of confidence, tone, and readability. The model in this paper analyzes a sample of 258 ICOs that ended during January to October 2018. I find that the confidence score of a whitepaper is negatively associated with the daily excess …
Can Machine Learning On Economic Data Better Forecast The Unemployment Rate?, Aaron S. Kreiner
Can Machine Learning On Economic Data Better Forecast The Unemployment Rate?, Aaron S. Kreiner
Honors Papers
This paper examines different machine learning methods to project the U.S. unemployment rate one year ahead. The forecasts include a naive forecast equal to the current unemployment plus the change of unemployment over the last year, along with forecasts from a Lasso regression and a neural network model. The last two models, which can be quickly run using an SQL database, select data from the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and are fitted (trained) in-sample from 1970 to 2000 to forecast quarterly unemployment rates over 2001 to 2018. The training window is updated in each forecast quarter to include new …
Delegate Voting At The 1787 Constitutional Convention: The Entanglement Of Economic Interests And The Great Compromise, Emily Highkin
Delegate Voting At The 1787 Constitutional Convention: The Entanglement Of Economic Interests And The Great Compromise, Emily Highkin
Honors Papers
How did the economic interests of the delegates to the 1787 Constitutional Convention impact delegate voting before and after the resolution of the Great Compromise? This research introduces the use of a delegate’s deviation from his state’s majority as the dependent variable in a model that divides the Convention into two periods around the Compromise. Covariates include several measures of a delegate’s economic interest, proxies for his personal ideology, and controls for his place of origin. Results indicate that three economic interests (owning a greater number of slaves, a home county further from navigable water, and holding public securities) significantly …