Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Devaluation, Short-Run Supply Response, And The J-Curve, Alexander L. Brown

Honors Papers

This paper will attempt to empirically illustrate the contribution of short-run supply adjustment to the U.S. J-curve. I plan to study, on the major industry division level (2 digit SIC), 15 manufacturing sectors of the united states. Their supply movements will be calculated in terms of total short-run adjustment. These statistics will then be compared to the trade balance (J-curve) for the U.S. to see if the supply movements of U.S. manufacturers can explain the continued drop in U.S. international trade. If the theory is supported few industries will adjust quickly in the short-run, reflecting the slow adjustment of aggregate …

The Presidential Business Cycle In The U.S.: A Theoretical And Empirical Examination, Ranjit S. Dighe

Honors Papers

The idea of a politically-motivated business cycle is basically a conspiracy theory: "office-motivated" politicians, seeking to exploit the well-documented relationship between favorable economic news and votes for the incumbent president and his party, manipulate the timing of business cycles for their own electoral gain. This manipulation, theorists maintain, is effected through the use of any of several policy instruments including discretionary federal spending, government transfer payments, and the average tax rate, as well as pressure on the central bank to pursue a more accommodating monetary policy.

Theories of such a cycle seem to fall in and out of favor with …

An Analysis Of The Effect Of Airline Deregulation Upon The Demand For Intercity Bus Service, Daniel G. Greenberg

Honors Papers

This brief excerpt, although not particularly fascinating in its revelation, is exemplary of a far more complex aspect of modern American economic policy. During the 1930's, American regulatory fervor was at its peak. Fear of a repeated economic upheaval, like that of 1929, compounded with the exorbitant profits earned by the robber barons spawned government intervention. Consequently, regulation was imposed upon numerous industries, including air and bus transport.

Four decades later restrictions have been lifted not only in the airline industry but in the intercity bus industry as well. These changes are part of the new laissez faire govermnent of …

The Sensitivity Of Brazil's Balance Of Payments And Foreign Debt To Future Changes In World Economic Conditions: 1987-1991, David Rostov

Honors Papers

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of Brazil's balance of payments (including its foreign debt) to future changes in world economic conditions. To accomplish this, the determinants of the country's balance of payments will be isolated and then empirically studied. Based upon these results,forecasts will be made under three different economic scenarios. The intent will be to determine the affect that different sets of world conditions have upon Brazil's foreign debt and trade balance from 1987 to 1991.

The hypothesis of this study is that continued industrial country growth, coupled with low world interest rates, will …