Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Government Royalties On Sales Of Pharmaceutical And Other Biomedical Products Developed With Substantial Public Funding: Illustrated With The Technology Transfer Of The Drug-Eluting Coronary Stent, Robert S. Danziger, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This study develops a detailed description of the successful technology transfer of an invention—the drug-eluting coronary stent—originating in intramural research within the National Institutes of Health. The history of the commercialization of the invention is used to illustrate a new policy, proposed and explained in this study, for the payment to the government of royalties on the sales of biomedical products developed with substantial public funding provided through indirect as well as direct funding avenues. The proposed policy addresses concerns about the high prices that taxpayers as consumers pay for biomedical products that were developed with funding from the taxpayers …

Thaw Publications, Carl Landwehr, David Kotz

Computer Science Technical Reports

In 2013, the National Science Foundation's Secure and Trustworthy Cyberspace program awarded a Frontier grant to a consortium of four institutions, led by Dartmouth College, to enable trustworthy cybersystems for health and wellness. As of this writing, the Trustworthy Health and Wellness (THaW) project's bibliography includes more than 130 significant publications produced with support from the THaW grant; these publications document the progress made on many fronts by the THaW research team. The collection includes dissertations, theses, journal papers, conference papers, workshop contributions and more. The bibliography is organized as a Zotero library, which provides ready access to citation materials …

Modeling The Economic Machine Using Bayesian Inference And Statistical Networks, And Optimal Portfolio Construction Using Operations Research, Richard Yang

ENGS 88 Honors Thesis (AB Students)

In this paper, we propose a network-based model to attempt to connect modern macroeconomic theory with real world economic observations and trends. We find that by extending macroeconomic theory with credit leveraging/deleveraging thresholds, we are able to explain economic cycles in addition to long-term growth. Furthermore, we specifically explore the growth-inflation view of the macro economy as a basis for optimal portfolio construction and efficient asset trading. Connecting our network-based macroeconomic model and our optimal portfolio construction algorithm, we create a novel macroeconomic asset-trading framework.

Propensity To Patent And Firm Size For Small R&D-Intensive Firms, Albert N. Link, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

The Schumpeterian hypothesis about the effect of firm size on research and development (R&D) output is studied for a sample of R&D projects for R&D-intensive firms that are small but have substantial variance in their sizes. Across the distribution of firm sizes, the elasticity of patenting with respect to R&D ranged from 0.41 to 0.55, with the elasticities being largest for intermediate levels of firm size and also varying directly with the extent to which the projects are Schumpeterian in the cost or value senses. The paper’s findings at the R&D project level are compared with the literature’s findings at …

Politics And Local Economic Growth: Evidence From India, Sam Asher, Paul Novosad

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Are There Environmental Benefits From Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance Of Local Factors, Stephen P. Holland, Erin T. Mansur, Nicholas Z. Muller, Andrew J. Yates

Dartmouth Scholarship

We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from $2,785 in California to -$4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of -$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly.

Is The Wto Passé?, Kyle Bagwell, Chad P. Bown, Robert W. Staiger

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Text-Based Network Industries And Endogenous Product Differentiation, Gerard Hoberg, Gordon Phillips

Dartmouth Scholarship

We study how firms differ from their competitors using new time-varying measures of product similarity based on text-based analysis of firm 10-K product descriptions. This year-by-year set of product similarity measures allows us to generate a new set of industries in which firms can have their own distinct set of competitors. Our new sets of competitors explain specific discussion of high competition, rivals identified by managers as peer firms, and changes to industry competitors following exogenous industry shocks. We also find evidence that firm R&D and advertising are associated with subsequent differentiation from competitors, consistent with theories of endogenous product …

Creativity For Invention Insights: Corporate Strategies And Opportunities For Public Entrepreneurship, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper introduces and describes the invention-insight sample space and uses it to describe the creative process of discovering invention insights—the essential combinations of elements of knowledge to envision the basic working configurations of inventions, the working ideas for new technologies. Evidence about invention insights and about corporate strategies to promote them is viewed in the context of the paper’s description of the invention-insight discovery process. Then that description is used (1) to identify a novel new opportunity—initiation of policies to stimulate invention insights that directly combine unusually large numbers of knowledge elements—for public sector entrepreneurship to speed the pace …

Unhappy Cities, Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb, Oren Ziv

Dartmouth Scholarship

There are persistent differences in self-reported subjective well-being across US metropolitan areas, and residents of declining cities appear less happy than others. Yet some people continue to move to these areas, and newer residents appear to be as unhappy as longer-term residents. While historical data on happiness are limited, the available facts suggest that cities that are now declining were also unhappy in their more prosperous past. These facts support the view that individuals do not maximize happiness alone but include it in the utility function along with other arguments. People may trade off happiness against other competing objectives.

Prices, Markups, And Trade Reform, Jan De Loecker, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Amit K. Khandelwal, Nina Pavcnik

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper examines how prices, markups, and marginal costs respond to trade liberalization. We develop a framework to estimate markups from production data with multi‐product firms. This approach does not require assumptions on the market structure or demand curves faced by firms, nor assumptions on how firms allocate their inputs across products. We exploit quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity‐based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by dividing observed prices by the estimated markups. We use India's trade liberalization episode to examine how firms adjust these performance measures. Not surprisingly, we find that trade liberalization lowers factory‐gate …

The Economic Burden Attributable To A Child’S Inpatient Admission For Diarrheal Disease In Rwanda, Fidele Ngabo, Mercy Mvundura, Lauren Gazley, Maurice Gatera, Celse Rugambwa, Eugene Kayonga, Yvette Tuyishme, Jeanne Niyibaho, Jason M. Mwenda, Philippe Donnen, Philippe Lepage, Agnes Binagwaho, Deborah Atherly

Dartmouth Scholarship

Backround:

Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality. Hospitalization for diarrhea can pose a significant burden to health systems and households. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden attributable to hospitalization for diarrhea among children less than five years old in Rwanda. These data can be used by decision-makers to assess the impact of interventions that reduce diarrhea morbidity, including rotavirus vaccine introduction.

Methods:

This was a prospective costing study where medical records and hospital bills for children admitted with diarrhea at three hospitals were collected to estimate resource use and …

Wintertime For Deceptive Advertising?, Jonathan Zinman, Eric Zitzewitz

Dartmouth Scholarship

Casual empiricism suggests that deceptive advertising about product quality is prevalent, and several classes of theories explore its causes and consequences. We provide unusually sharp empirical evidence on its extent, mechanics, and dynamics. Ski resorts self-report substantially more natural snowfall than comparable government sources. The difference is more pronounced on weekends, despite third-party evidence that snowfall is uniform throughout the week—as one would expect given plausibly greater returns to exaggeration on weekends. Exaggeration is greater for resorts that plausibly reap greater benefits from it: those with expert terrain and those not offering money back guarantees. (JEL D83, L15, L83, M37, …

The Entrepreneur’S Idea And Outside Finance: Theory And Evidence About Entrepreneurial Roles, John T. Scott, Troy J. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

We study the problem faced by the entrepreneur seeking outside support to turn an entrepreneurial idea into a successful innovation—specifically a successful technological innovation resulting from research and development. The paper develops and tests the hypothesis that as an entrepreneur’s innovative idea becomes more complex, the entrepreneur will find it more difficult to obtain outside finance and then outside support more generally for the commercialization of the idea. Consequently, the entrepreneur will be more likely to take on additional roles beyond providing the essential idea. The evidence supports the hypothesis that, other things being the same, an entrepreneur with a …

Referrals: Peer Screening And Enforcement In A Consumer Credit Field Experiment, Gharad Bryan, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

Empirical evidence on peer intermediation lags behind both theory and practice in which lenders use peers to mitigate adverse selection and moral hazard. Using a referral incentive under individual liability, we develop a two-stage field experiment that permits separate identification of peer screening and enforcement. Our key contribution is to allow for borrower heterogeneity in both ex ante repayment type and ex post susceptibility to social pressure. Our method allows identification of selection on repayment likelihood, selection on susceptibility to social pressure, and loan enforcement. Implementing our method in South Africa we find no evidence of screening but large enforcement …

Behind The Gate Experiment: Evidence On Effects Of And Rationales For Subsidized Entrepreneurship Training, Robert W. Fairlie, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

Theories of market failures and targeting motivate the promotion of entrepreneurship training programs and generate testable predictions regarding heterogeneous treatment effects from such programs. Using a large randomized evaluation in the United States, we find no strong or lasting effects on those most likely to face credit or human capital constraints, or labor market discrimination. We do find a short-run effect on business ownership for those unemployed at baseline, but this dissipates at longer horizons. Treatment effects on the full sample are also short-term and limited in scope: we do not find effects on business sales, earnings, or employees. (JEL …

Informal Employment In A Growing And Globalizing Low-Income Country, Brian Mccaig, Nina Pavcnik

Dartmouth Scholarship

We document several facts about workforce transitions from the informal to the formal sector in Vietnam, a fast growing, industrializing, and low-income country. First, younger workers, particularly migrants, are more likely to work in the formal sector and stay there permanently. Second, the decline in the aggregate share of informal employment occurs through changes between and within birth cohorts. Third, younger, educated, male, and urban workers are more likely to switch to the formal sector than other workers initially in the informal sector. Poorly educated, older, female, rural workers face little prospect of formalization. Fourth, formalization coincides with occupational upgrading.

Do Opposites Detract? Intrahousehold Preference Heterogeneity And Inefficient Strategic Savings, Simone Schaner

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper uses a field experiment to test whether intrahousehold heterogeneity in discount factors leads to inefficient strategic savings behavior. I gave married couples in rural Kenya the opportunity to open both joint and individual bank accounts at randomly assigned interest rates. I also directly elicited discount factors for all individuals in the experiment. Couples who are well matched on discount factors are less likely to use costly individual accounts and respond robustly to relative rates of return between accounts, while their poorly matched peers do not. Consequently, poorly matched couples forgo significantly more interest earnings on their savings. (JEL …

Does Online Availability Increase Citations? Theory And Evidence From A Panel Of Economics And Business Journals, Mark J. Mccabe, Christopher M. Snyder

Dartmouth Scholarship

Does online availability boost citations? Using a panel of citations to economics and business journals, we show that the enormous effects found in previous studies were an artifact of their failure to control for article quality, disappearing once fixed effects are added as controls. The absence of aggregate effects masks heterogeneity across platforms: JSTOR has a uniquely large effect, boosting citations around 10%. We examine other sources of heterogeneity, including whether JSTOR disproportionately increases cites from developing countries or to ‘‘long-tail’’ articles. Our theoretical analysis informs the econometric specification and allows citation increases to be translated into welfare terms.

The Impact Of Corruption On Consumer Markets: Evidence From The Allocation Of Second-Generation Wireless Spectrum In India, Sandip Sukhtankar

Dartmouth Scholarship

Theoretical predictions of the impact of corruption on economic efficiency are ambiguous, with models allowing for positive, negative, or neutral effects. While much evidence exists on levels of corruption, less is available on its impact, particularly its impacts on consumer markets. This paper investigates empirically the effect of the corrupt sale of spectrum licenses to ineligible firms on the wireless-telecommunications market in India. I find that the corrupt allocation had, at worst, no impact on the number of subscribers, prices, usage, revenues, competition, and measures of quality. I argue that the market-based transfer of licenses to competent firms other than …

Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence From A Field Experiment, Jeffrey B. Liebman, Erzo F. P. Luttmer

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper presents the results of a randomized field experiment that provided information about key Social Security features to older workers. The experiment was designed to examine whether it is possible to affect individual behavior using a relatively inexpensive informational intervention about the provisions of a public program and to explore the mechanisms underlying the behavior change. We find that our relatively mild intervention (sending an informational brochure and an invitation to a web-tutorial) increased labor force participation one year later by 4 percentage points relative to the control group mean of 74 percent. (JEL C93, D12, H55)

Optimal Design Of Trade Agreements In The Presence Of Renegotiation, Giovanni Maggi, Robert W. Staiger

Dartmouth Scholarship

We study the optimal design of trade agreements when governments can renegotiate after the resolution of uncertainty but compensation between them is inefficient. In equilibrium, renegotiation always results in trade liberalization, not protection. The optimal contract may be a "property rule" or a "liability rule". High uncertainty favors liability over property rules, while asymmetries in bargaining power favor property over liability rules. Moreover, optimal property rules are never renegotiated. With a cost of renegotiation, property rules are favored when this cost is higher, reversing a central conclusion of the law-and-economics literature. (JEL C78, D86, F13, F15, K12)

Price Subsidies, Diagnostic Tests, And Targeting Of Malaria Treatment: Evidence From A Randomized Controlled Trial, Jessica Cohen, Pascaline Dupas, Simone Schaner

Dartmouth Scholarship

Both under- and over-treatment of communicable diseases are public bads. But efforts to decrease one run the risk of increasing the other. Using rich experimental data on household treatment- seeking behavior in Kenya, we study the implications of this trade-off for subsidizing life-saving antimalarials sold over-the-counter at retail drug outlets. We show that a very high subsidy (such as the one under consideration by the international community) dramatically increases access, but nearly one-half of subsidized pills go to patients without malaria. We study two ways to better target subsidized drugs: reducing the subsidy level, and introducing rapid malaria tests over-the-counter. …

Standards And Innovation: Us Public/Private Partnerships To Support Technology-Based Economic Growth, Troy J. Scott, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper examines how strategic alliances to create and use standards affect economic growth and development. The explanation of the link from standards to economic growth and development is through the effects of standards on the incentives to perform industrial research and development (R&D). We examine product standards, metrology traceable to national and international standards, and regulatory standards to address negative externalities. The paper develops a theoretical explanation for the link from standards to growth, survey/interview-guides to gather information from industrial R&D experts about the explanation, and case-study evidence about the explanation. We discuss the standard-setting process and explain it …

Factoryless Goods Producing Firms, Andrew B. Bernard, Teresa C. Fort

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper documents the existence and characteristics of US firms that do not manufacture themselves, but nonetheless are heavily involved in the production of goods. These factoryless goods producing firms (FGPFs) are formally in the wholesale sector but, unlike traditional wholesale firms, FGPFs design the goods they sell and coordinate production activities. FGPFs in the wholesale sector are larger and younger, pay higher wages, span more sectors and had more manufacturing employment in previous years compared to traditional wholesalers. FGPFs are more likely to import than typical wholesalers, though their imports constitute a smaller share of their total domestic activity.

Systematic Bias And Nontransparency In Us Social Security Administration Forecasts, Konstantin Kashin, Gary King, Samir Soneji

Dartmouth Scholarship

We offer an evaluation of the Social Security Administration demographic and financial forecasts used to assess the long-term solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds. This same forecasting methodology is also used in evaluating policy proposals put forward by Congress to modify the Social Security program. Ours is the first evaluation to compare the SSA forecasts with observed truth; for example, we compare forecasts made in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s with outcomes that are now available. We find that Social Security Administration forecasting errors—as evaluated by how accurate the forecasts turned out to be—were approximately unbiased until 2000 and …

Is Student Loan Debt Discouraging Homeownership Among Young Adults?, Jason N. Houle, Lawrence Berger

Dartmouth Scholarship

Amid concern that rising student loan debt has social and economic consequences for young adults, many suggest that student loan debt is leading young adults to forgo home buying. However, there is little empirical evidence on this topic. In this study, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to estimate associations of student loan debt with homeownership, mortgage amount, and home equity. We use a variety of methodological techniques and test several model specifications. While we find a negative association between debt and homeownership in some models, the association is substantively modest in size and is …

Social Support Substitution And The Earnings Rebound: Evidence From A Regression Discontinuity In Disability Insurance Reform, Lex Borghans, Anne C. Gielen, Erzo F. P. Luttmer

Dartmouth Scholarship

We exploit a cohort discontinuity in the stringency of Dutch disability reforms to estimate the effects of decreased DI (disability insurance) generosity on behavior of existing recipients. We find evidence of social support substitution: individuals on average offset €1.00 of lost DI benefits by collecting €0.30 more from other social assistance programs, but this benefit-substitution effect declines over time. Individuals also exhibit a rebound in earnings: earnings increase by €0.62 on average per euro of lost DI benefits and this effect remains roughly constant over time. This is strong evidence of substantial remaining earnings capacity among long-term claimants of DI.

Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven

Dartmouth Scholarship

Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent e§ects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the following stylized …

Wall Street And The Housing Bubble, Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina, Wei Xiong

Dartmouth Scholarship

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home transactions, and did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets. Certain groups of securitization agents were particularly aggressive in increasing their exposure to housing during this period, suggesting the need to expand the incentives-based view of the crisis to incorporate a role for beliefs.