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Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai
Essays In Financial Economics And Applied Macroeconomics, Marius Mihai
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics in finance and macroeconomics.
Chapter 1 - Do Credit Booms Predict U.S. Recessions?
This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting U.S. recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from six to nine months. Second, by isolating the effect of credit booms, I identify their contributions to recession probabilities which range between three and four percentage points at a …