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Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …