Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

An Overview And Dynamics Of Financial Market Development In Nigeria And Imperatives For Exchange Rate Stability, E.U. Ukeje

Economic and Financial Review

The article discusses the important role money market plays in the economic development of any country which provides the platform for central banks to influence short-term interest rates,

Dollarisation: Any Possibility In Nigeria And Its Effects On Economic Management And Exchange Rate Stability, E.A. Abolo

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined various type and definitions of dollarization, the possibility of dollarization in Nigeria and its effect on economic management. The author emphasized on unofficial dollarization and its benefits and costs.

Exchange Rate And Inflation: Is There A Relationship In Nigeria, C.N.O. Mordi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to examine the link between exchange rate and domestic price level in Nigeria. Employing the VAR technique, the study used monthly series of inter-bank rate, world export prices, real gross domestic product, oil prices and consumer price index from 2000MI to 2015MI. The results from the study show that exchange rate pass-through to price level is high. a shock to exchange rate (depreciation) would increase domestic price by 0.72 per cent in the first month. The effect rose to 0.82, 0.85 and 0.86 per cent in month 2,4 and 6, respectively, before it began to fall. By …

The More Divergent, The Better? Lessons On Trilemma Policies And Crises For Asia, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the extent of policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—we find that emerging market economies have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the smallest degree of policy divergence in the last 15 years. We then investigate whether and to what extent the degree of open macro policy convergence affects the probability of a crisis and find that a developing or emerging market economy with a higher …

International Reserves Before And After The Global Crisis: Is There No End To Hoarding?, Joshua Aizenman, Yin-Wong Cheung, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We evaluate the global financial crisis (GFC) and the structural changes of recent years that have been associated with new patterns of hoarding international reserves. We confirm that the determining factors of international reserves are evolving with developments in the global economy. From 1999–2006, the pre-GFC period, gross saving is associated with higher international reserves in developing and emerging markets. An outward direct-investment effect is consistent with the view of diverting international assets from the international reserve account, the “Joneses’ effect” lends support to the rivalry hoarding motivation, and commodity price volatility induces hoarding against uncertainty. During the 2007–2009 GFC, …

Openness, The Sacrifice Ratio, And Inflation: Is There A Puzzle?, Joseph P. Daniels, David D. Vanhoose

Joseph P Daniels

The standard time-inconsistency-based explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation requires an inverse relationship between the sacrifice ratio and openness, but Daniels et al. (2005, Openness, central bank independence, and the sacrifice ratio. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37 (2), 371–379.) have provided evidence that controlling for central bank independence reveals a positive relationship. This paper embeds the time-inconsistency approach within a model of a multisector, imperfectly competitive, open economy. In this setting, greater openness raises the sacrifice ratio but reduces the inflation bias. Thus, failure to observe an inverse relationship between openness and the sacrifice ratio …

Openness, Centralized Wage Bargaining, And Inflation, Joseph P. Daniels, Farrokh Nourzad, David D. Vanhoose

Joseph P Daniels

This paper develops a model of an open economy containing both sectors in which wages are market-determined and sectors with wage-setting arrangements. A portion of the latter group of sectors coordinate their wages, taking into account that their collective actions influence the equilibrium inflation outcome in an environment in which the central bank engages in discretionary monetary policymaking. Key predictions forthcoming from this model are (1) increased centralization of wage setting initially causes inflation to increase at low degrees of wage centralization but then, as wage centralization increases, results in an inflation drop-off; (2) a greater degree of centralized wage …

Openness, Income-Tax Progressivity, And Inflation, Joseph P. Daniels, David D. Vanhoose

Joseph P Daniels

This paper considers a model of an open economy in which the degree of income-tax progressivity influences the interaction among openness, central bank independence, and the inflation rate. Our model suggests that an increase in the progressivity of the tax system induces a smaller response in real output to a change in the price level. This implies that increased income-tax progressivity reduces the equilibrium inflation rate and that the effect of increased income-tax progressivity on inflation is smaller when the central bank places a higher weight on inflation or when there is greater openness. Examination of cross-country inflation data provides …

Discounting The Distant Future, J. Doyne Farmer, John Geanakoplos, Jaume Masoliver, Miquel Montero

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

If the historical average annual real interest rate is m > 0, and if the world is stationary, should consumption in the distant future be discounted at the rate of m per year? Suppose the annual real interest rate r ( t ) reverts to m according to the Ornstein Uhlenbeck (OU) continuous time process dr ( t ) = α[ m – r ( t )] dt + kdw ( t ), where w is a standard Wiener process. Then we prove that the long run rate of interest is r ∞ = m – k 2 /2α 2 . …

The Relationships Of Inflationary Trend, Agricultural Productivity And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Grace Z. Rekwot

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the links existing between inflationary trend, agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1970 to 2011. The results of the analyses indicate a unidirectional causality from inflationary trend to agricultural productivity, unidirectional causality from agricultural productivity to economic growth with no causality between inflationary trend and economic growth. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should pay more attention to the trend of inflation and pursue policies that will ensure single digit inflation.

Heterogeneous Effects Of Commodity Price Shocks On Inflation Rates. Evidence From A Panel Study., Odbayar Batmunkh

Master's Theses

Do commodity price shocks have heterogeneous effect on countries based on their export and import profiles? I address this question through a panel study of 142 countries using Export and Import Indexes aimed at differentiating the retail pass-through and fiscal balance channel of transmission of Commodity Price shocks on inflation. The results show that an increase in the Export Index leads to a decrease in contemporary inflation while an increase in the Import Index leads to an increase in inflation in the next year. Average causal mediating effect of the Export Index on Inflation through the Fiscal Balance was shown …

An Analysis Of The Linkage Between Inflation Rate, Foreign Debt, Unemployment And Economic Growth In Sudan, Yagoub Elryah Dr.

Yagoub Elryah (PhD)

After secession of South Sudan, Sudan economy was decline due to losing of oil revenue. The government introduced the austerity measures and fault to recover the economy. The inflation was risen, the unemployment increased among Sudanese. The aim of this article was to analyze the relationship between inflation, unemployment, external debt and economic growth in Sudan. We considered Unit root technique (Augmented Dickey – Fuller Test) to find out long run equilibrium among using time series between 1980 and 2013. We show that all two public debts and unemployment have a direct and significant influence on economic growth. It was …

An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This study examines the dynamics of inflation in Nigeria, including the structural evolution as well as the direction of its movement with a view to designing appropriate policy measures to rein in the inflationary pressures. The study utilized quarterly data from 1970(1) to 2013 (4) except for Bureau de Change (BDC) premium where the duration was 1991(1) to 2013 (4) based on Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that structural factors like budget deficit, rainfall, variation in export, exchange rate premium have profound influence on movement in CPI in Nigeria during the period.

The Bedridden Queen Money!, John Samuel Cyrus Mr

John Samuel Cyrus Mr

During the past few decades, macro-economic activities had been rallied around glamorous industrial and technology oriented service sectors. Recent recession that began in 2008 is still continuing and the little improvement in 2009 was nothing but the fluctuation in the ICU monitor, which was connected to the bedridden queen Money. Many nations GDP growth rate has been continually falling and unemployment rates are continually rising. The American economy is in a complete mess, no remedies are found yet for European economic sovereign debt crisis, and the Asian economy fast fading due to India’s low GDP and the slide in Rupee; …

Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Purpose – Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper aims to analyze the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India.

Design/methodology/approach – The methodology uses a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and Granger Causality test.

Findings – Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty.

Research limitations/implications – …